SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME SUB-PRIORITY 1.1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems Contract for: SPECIFIC TARGETED RESEARCH PROJECT Annex I - “Description of Work” Project acronym: CECILIA Project full title: Central and Eastern Europe Climate Change Impact and VulnerabiLIty Assessment Priority thematic areas: 1.1.6.3.I.3.2 - Climate change impacts in central-eastern Europe Proposal/Contract no.: 037005 Related to other Contract no.: (to be completed by Commission) Date of preparation of Annex I: 20 February 2006, modified 20 November 2008 Operative commencement date of contract: (to be completed by Commission) Co-ordinator name Tomas Halenka Co-ordinator Charles University, Prague organisation name Faculty of Mathematics and Physics Co-ordinator email [email protected] Co-ordinator phone +420 2 2191 2514 Co-ordinator fax +420 2 2191 2533 CECILIA Content: 1 Project summary ..........................................................................................................................................4 2 Project objective(s).......................................................................................................................................5 2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................5 2.2 Main goal ................................................................................................................................................5 2.3 Aims and objectives................................................................................................................................6 3 Participant list ...............................................................................................................................................7 4 Relevance to the objectives of the specific programme and/or thematic priority.........................................8 4.1 Regional climate modelling.....................................................................................................................9 4.2 Statistical downscaling, model validation and climate change scenarios preparation.........................11 4.3 Extremes events, sensitivity of processes to climate change ..............................................................12 4.4 Climate change impact on hydrology and water management ............................................................13 4.5 Climate change impacts on agriculture and forestry ............................................................................14 4.6 Climate change impacts on air quality and health................................................................................15 5 Potential impact..........................................................................................................................................17 5.1 Contributions to standards....................................................................................................................17 5.2 Contributions to policy developments...................................................................................................17 5.3 Risk assessment and related communication strategy ........................................................................18 6 Project management and exploitation/dissemination plans .......................................................................19 6.1 Project management ............................................................................................................................19 Management structure ...............................................................................................................................19 Project Communication Flow......................................................................................................................21 Project Reporting and Quality Control........................................................................................................21 Confidentiality and Intellectual Property.....................................................................................................21 Management a Project Meetings................................................................................................................22 6.2 Plan for using and disseminating knowledge .......................................................................................22 6.3 Raising public participation and awareness .........................................................................................23 7 Detailed Implementation Plan – for full duration of the project ..................................................................24 7.1 Introduction - general description and milestones................................................................................24 Implementation plan – climate change.......................................................................................................25 Implementation plan – climate change impacts .........................................................................................28 7.2 Planning and timetable .........................................................................................................................33 7.3 Graphical presentation of work packages ............................................................................................35 7.4 Work package list .................................................................................................................................36 7.5 Deliverables list.....................................................................................................................................37 7.6 Work packages description (full duration of project) ............................................................................41 Assessment and provision of climate change information for downscaling and impacts ..........................41 Regional climate modelling experiments....................................................................................................43 Statistical downscaling, localization, validation, and scenario construction...............................................45 Climate change and extreme events..........................................................................................................47 Climate change impacts in hydrology and water management .................................................................49 Climate change impacts on agriculture and forestry sectors .....................................................................52 Climate change impacts on air quality and health......................................................................................55 Project management ..................................................................................................................................57 8 Project resources and budget overview .....................................................................................................59 8.1 Efforts for the full duration of the project ..............................................................................................59 8.2 Overall budget for the full duration of the project .................................................................................59 8.3 Management level description of resources and budget......................................................................59 Charles University in Prague (CUNI) .........................................................................................................62 The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP).....................................................62 Météo-France (CNRM)...............................................................................................................................62 The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).................................................................................................62 Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, University of Thessaloniki, Greece (AUTH) .....................................62 Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI).............................................................................................63 Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Academy od Science of Czech Republic (IAP).....................................63 Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich (ETH).................................................................................63 Inst. of Meteorology, Univ. of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences (BOKU), Austria.................63 National Meteorological Administration (NMA) ..........................................................................................64 National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgaria (NIMH) ...........................................................64 National Institute of Hydrology and Water Management (NIHWM) ...........................................................64 Hungarian Meteorological Service (OMSZ) ...............................................................................................64 Forest Research Institute Zvolen (FRI) ......................................................................................................64 2 CECILIA Warsaw University of Technology, Poland (WUT)....................................................................................64 Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary (ELU)................................................................................64