Appendix B 1.0 AIR QUALITY TRENDS SUMMARY The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) analyzed various data for trends to determine New Jersey’s progress in attaining the 8-hour ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). The trends analyzed include 8-hour ozone design values, monitor exceedances, meteorology, and ozone precursor concentrations. Eight-hour average ozone concentrations have been calculated since 1986, prior to the 8- hour ozone standard implementation in 1997 in New Jersey and before designations were made in 2004. Data for 8-hour ozone before 1997 are used for analysis purposes only and do not represent official reporting for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS. In addition to trends in 8-hour ozone data, 1-hour ozone data were also analyzed. Trends for 1-hour ozone data include design values and monitor exceedances for New Jersey and both the New York and Philadelphia nonattainment areas. 1.1 An Overview of New Jersey’s Monitoring Network There are two primary networks of air monitoring sites in New Jersey: the Continuous Monitoring Network and the Manual Sampling Network.1 Samples collected through the Manual Sampling Network are analyzed in a laboratory. Monitoring data from automated instrumentation in the Continuous Monitoring Network is reported in real time. A site location may have both types of instrumentation so that it is a part of both networks. Figures B1 and Figure B2 show the Continuous Monitoring Network and Manual Sampling Network, respectively. The Continuous Monitoring Network currently includes 14 sites at which ozone is measured year-round. The Manual Sampling Network includes six sites at which ozone precursors are measured seasonally and is discussed in further detail in Section 1.6. Figure B3 is a map of ozone monitoring site locations in New Jersey. 1 NJDEP. 2004 Network Summary, 2004 Air Quality Report. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Monitoring, 2005. 1 Figure B1: 2005 New Jersey Continuous Monitoring Network 2 Figure B2: 2005 New Jersey Manual Monitoring Network 3 Figure B3: 2006 New Jersey Ozone Monitoring Network 1.2 1-Hour Ozone 1.2.1 1-Hour Ozone Design Values and Exceedances In order to determine compliance for an area under the NAAQS for ozone, a design value is calculated based upon ambient air monitoring data and compared to the federal standard. An area is considered to be attaining the 1-hour average ozone standard if the average number of times the standard is exceeded at any one monitoring station over a three-year period was 1 or less (after correcting for missing data) (40 C.F.R. 50, Appendix H). Thus, it is the fourth highest daily maximum 1-hour concentration that occurs over a three-year period that determines if an area is in attainment. If the fourth highest value is above 0.12 parts per million (ppm) then the average number of exceedances is greater than 1. The fourth highest value is also known as the design 4 value. One-hour ozone design values in nonattainment areas associated with New Jersey have declined substantially over time. The maximum 1-hour ozone average concentration (not shown) recorded in New Jersey in 1988 was 0.218 ppm, compared to a maximum of 0.119 ppm in 2004.2 In fact, of the 14 ozone monitoring sites that were operating during the 2004 ozone season in New Jersey, none recorded levels above the 1- hour standard of 0.12 ppm during the year. Most recently, all but one New Jersey monitor (at 0.125 ppm) met the 1-hour ozone standard in 2006. Figure B4 displays the statewide maximum, median, and minimum site 1-hour ozone design values for New Jersey from 1986 to 2006. Figure B5 displays the 1-hour ozone design values for the 24 county 1-hour ozone New York nonattainment area from 1982 to 2006. Average 1-hour ozone design values in the 1-hour ozone New York nonattainment area from 1991-2006 have declined approximately 29 percent from average design values compared to 1982- 1990 (pre-1990 Clean Air Act Amendments).3,4 The design value for a nonattainment area is the maximum monitor design value for all monitors for each 3-year period. One-hour ozone design values in the 1-hour ozone Philadelphia nonattainment area from 1991-2006 have declined approximately 20 percent from average design values compared to 1982-1990 (pre-1990 Clean Air Act Amendments).5,6 Figure B6 displays the 1-hour ozone design values for the 14 county 1-hour ozone Philadelphia nonattainment area from 1982 to 2006. 2 NJDEP. 2004 Ozone Summary, 2004 Air Quality Report. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Monitoring, 2005. 3 NJDEP. Mid-Course Review for the New Jersey Portion of the Philadelphia-Southern New Jersey and New York-Northern New Jersey 1-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas. New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Quality Planning, January 2005. 4 USEPA. AirData: Access to Air Pollution Data, 2006. United States Environmental Protection Agency, http://www.epa.gov/air/data/, accessed December 7, 2006. 5 op. cit., note 3 6 op. cit., note 4 5 Figure B4: New Jersey 1-Hour Ozone Design Values, 1988-2006 (Based on 4th Highest 1-Hour Average Concentration) 0.25 Maximum Site 0.23 Median 0.20 Minimum Site 0.18 0.15 0.13 0.10 Health Standard (0.124 ppm) Ozone Concentration (ppm) 0.08 0.05 0.03 *2006 data is preliminary 0.00 '86- '87- '88- '89- '90- '91- '92- '93- '94- '95- '96- '97- '98- '99- '00- '01- '02- '03- '04- '88 '89 '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06* 6 Figure B5: Design Values for the 1-Hour Ozone New York 0.30 0.28 0.25 0.272 0.23 Nonattainment Area, 0.20 0.230 0.18 0.232 0.15 0.224 0.13 0.202 Ozone0.10 Concentration (ppm) 7 Health Standard (0.124 ppm) 0.08 0.186 1982-2006 0.197 0.05 0.201 0.03 0.197 0.00 0.165 1980-2 0.160 1981-3 0.152 1982-4 0.165 1983-5 0.165 1984-6 1985-7 0.144 1986-8 0.139 1987-9 0.138 1988-90 0.145 1989-91 0.140 1990-2 No 2006 data is yet available for Queens College Pt., 0.143 1991-3 0.143 1992-4 0.144 1993-5 0.137 1994-6 0.139 1995-7 7 0.144 Only monitors with 3-years of valid 1-hour ozone concentrations were used. These design values do not 1996-8 include 1-hour ozone concentrations for some days in July 2002 for monitors in the New Jersey and *2006 data is preliminar Connecticut portions of the New York nonattainment area. 1997-9 data as an exceptional event due to the infl 1998-00 1999-01 2000-2 Queens, N 2001-3 y 2002-4 Y 2003-5 2004-06* uence of the northern Quebec forest fires. 7 Many states in the northeast have flagged this Figure B6: Design Values for the 1-Hour Ozone Philadelphia 0.25 0.23 0.20 0.193 0.18 Nonattainment Area, 0.15 0.181 0.182 0.13 0.182 0.10 Ozone Concentration (ppm) 0.165 0.08 Health Standard (0.124 ppm) 0.161 0.180 0.187 8 0.05 1982-2006 0.187 0.03 0.00 0.152 0.153 1980-82 0.152 Monitored exceedances1981-83 of the 1-hour ozone ozone concentration is greater1982-84 than or e 0.140 days on which monitors exceeded1 9the83-85 1-hour ozone standard for New Jersey’s monitors 0.146 between 1985 and 2006 is shown in Figure1984 -B7.86 0.139 0.152 decrease in the number of monitored 1985-87 0.152 area. 1986-88 0.153 number of9 monitored exceedances from 1991-2006 declined1987 approximately-89 70 percent compared to Inthe the number New Jerseyof exceedances portion of 1-hour 1988-90 0.147 attributed to a change in the number of mon 0.145 ozone New York nonattainment area since th 1989-91 1990-92 steady, with nine monitors operating in 1985 and eight in 2006. 0.135 1991-93 0.133 1992-94 1993-95 0.129 8 Only monitors with 3-years of valid 1-hour ozone concentrations were used. These design values do not 1994-96 include 1-hour ozone concentrations for July 8th and 9th, 2002. Many states in the northeast havequal flagged to 0.125 ppm. The declining total number 0.121 this data as an exceptional event due to the influence standard occur whenever1995-97 a monitor’s 1-hour all data for these sites were removed from this analysis. 1996-98 0.114 9 exceedances since 1985 in each nonattainment op. cit., note 3 1997-99 1998-2000 *2006 data is preliminary In addition, there has been a dramatic ozone New York nonattainment area, the 1999-2001 between 1980-90. This decrease cannot be 2000-02 2001-03 itors in the New Jersey portion of the 1-hour 2002-04 e number of ozone monitors has remained 2003-05 2004-06 of the northern Quebec forest fires. For consistency, 8 In the New Jersey portion of the 1-hour ozone Philadelphia nonattainment area, the number of monitored exceedances from 1991-2006 declined approximately 62 percent compared to the number of exceedances between 1980-90. Again, this decrease cannot be attributed to a change in the number of monitors in the New Jersey portion of the 1- hour ozone Philadelphia nonattainment area since the number of ozone monitors has remained relatively steady, with five monitors operating in 1985 and 2006.