POWER PEOPLE PLANET Seizing Africa’s energy and climate opportunities 1 AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2015 2 POWER PEOPLE PLANET Seizing Africa’s energy and climate opportunities AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2015 3 POWER PEOPLE PLANET Seizing Africa’s energy and climate opportunities TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 8 FOREWORD BY KOFI ANNAN 10 OVERVIEW 14 INTRODUCTION 28 01/ POWER TO THE PEOPLE – AFRICA’S ENERGY IMPERATIVE 32 Disconnected Africa 36 Opportunity Africa – The region’s vast untapped energy potential 68 Africa’s energy transformation – The rising tide of reform, investment and innovation 89 02/ AFRICA’S OPPORTUNITY TO LEAD ON CLIMATE 112 Africa’s stake in the global deal 115 International action – Priorities for Paris 126 Securing a better deal for Africa 135 03/ THE ROAD AHEAD AND RECOMMENDATIONS 142 African leaders 144 International community 151 Private investors and multinational companies 158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 160 ANNEXES 163 5 AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2015 ABOUT THE AFRICA PROGRESS PANEL KOFI ANNAN MICHEL CAMDESSUS PETER EIGEN BOB GELDOF GRAÇA MACHEL STRIVE MASIYIWA OLUSEGUN OBASANJO LINAH MOHOHLO ROBERT RUBIN TIDJANE THIAM The Africa Progress Panel (APP) consists of ten distinguished individuals from the private and public sector who advocate for equitable and sustainable development for Africa. Mr Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations and Nobel laureate, chairs the APP and is closely involved in its day-to-day work. The life experiences of Panel members give them a formidable capability to access the worlds of politics, business, diplomacy and civil society at the highest levels in Africa and across the globe. As a result, the Panel functions in a unique policy space with the ability to influence diverse decision-makers. The Panel builds coalitions to leverage and broker knowledge and to convene decision-makers to create change in Africa. The Panel has extensive networks of policy analysts and think tanks across Africa and the world. By bringing together the latest thinking from these knowledge and political networks, the APP contributes to generating evidence-based policies that can drive the transformation of the continent. 6 POWER PEOPLE PLANET Seizing Africa’s energy and climate opportunities ABOUT THE AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT The Africa Progress Report (APR) is the annual flagship publication of the Africa Progress Panel. The APR draws on the best research and analysis available on Africa and compiles it in a refreshing and balanced manner. The Panel makes policy recommendations for African political leaders and civil society who collectively have the primary responsibility for spurring Africa’s progress. In light of the continent’s dynamic links with the rest of the world, the APR also highlights critical steps that must be taken by leaders in the international public and private sector. This report may be freely reproduced, in whole or in part, provided the original source is acknowledged. ISBN 978-2-9700821-6-3 7 AFRICA PROGRESS REPORT 2015 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report draws on the expertise, advice and active engagement of many people. Caroline Kende-Robb (Executive Director, Africa Progress Panel) led the team preparing the report. Kevin Watkins (Executive Director, Overseas Development Institute) was the lead author, with research support from Maria Quattri (Overseas Development Institute). Peter da Costa (Senior Advisor, Africa Progress Panel) provided advice throughout the project. The report was edited by Andrew Johnston We would like to thank the following African institutions and think tanks for their invaluable contribution: Africa 2.0; the African Carbon Credit Exchange (Zambia); the African Climate Policy Centre; the African Development Bank; the Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa (Nigeria); Consortium pour la Recherche Economique et Sociale (Senegal); the Institute of Economic Affairs (Ghana) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. The Global Commission on Economy and Climate, which is chaired and co-chaired respectively by Felipe Calderón and Nicholas Stern, provided invaluable support and advice. The Commission’s New Climate Economy Team generously provided a number of background papers, technical advice and commentary on early drafts. The Africa Progress Panel benefited from discussions with a number of people prominently involved in international dialogue on energy and climate. We would like to express our gratitude to the following individuals: Akinwumi Adesina (Ministry of Agriculture, Nigeria); Adnan Amin (International Renewable Energy Agency); Bertrand Badré (World Bank Group); Christiana Figueres (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change); Donald Kaberuka (African Development Bank Group); Saviour Kasukuwere (Ministry of Environment, Water & Climate, Zimbabwe); Carlos Lopes (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa); Bernard Mensah (Bank of America Merrill Lynch); Michael Møller (United Nations Office at Geneva); Kwame Pianim (Management and Investment Consultant); Mary Robinson (Mary Robinson Foundation - Climate Justice); Achim Steiner (United Nations Environment Programme); Andrew Scott (Overseas Development Institute); Lars Thunell (African Risk Capacity Insurance Company Limited); Kandeh Yumkella (Sustainable Energy for All Initiative). We drew on the advice and insights of a group of expert commentators, all of whom were extremely generous with their time. Special thanks are due to: Mohamed Adow (Christian Aid); Lawrence Agbemabiese, Aaron Smith (University of Delaware, Centre for Energy and Environmental Policy); Mahenau Agha, Chad Carpenter (United Nations Environment Programme); Tom Cardamone (Global Financial Integrity); Anton Cartwright (African Center for Cities); Stephen Connor; Nathalie Delapalme (Mo Ibrahim Foundation); Christopher Delgado (World Resources Institute); Fatima Denton, Linus Mofor, Johnson Nkem, Joseph Intsiful, James Murombedzi (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa); David Doepel (Africa Australia Research Forum); Francis Stevens George, Lawrence E. Jones (Center for Sustainable Development in Africa); Nick Godfrey, Jana Frejova (New Climate Economy); Natasha Grist (Overseas Development Institute); Thomas Hale (Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government); Augustine Jarrett (Government of Liberia); Steve Kayizzi- Mugerwa (African Development Bank Group); Fiona Lambe (Stockholm Environment Institute); Christopher Martius (Center for International Forestry Research); Jean Mensah (Institute of Economic Affairs, Ghana); Simon Mizrahi (African Development Bank Group); Yacoub Mulugetta (University College London); Jeremy Oppenehim (McKinsey); Rudy Rabbinge (Wageningen University); Guido Schmidt-Traub (UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network); Abebe Selassie (International Monetary Fund); Clare Shakya, Tiege Cahill (UK Department for International Development); Patrick Smith (Africa Confidential); Youba Sokona (South Centre); Tesfai Tecle (Kofi Annan Foundation); Madeleine Christine Thomson, Tufa Dinku(International Research Institute for Climate and Society); Mamadou Touré (Africa 2.0); Kevin Urama (Quantum Global Research Lab); William Westermeyer. 8 POWER PEOPLE PLANET Seizing Africa’s energy and climate opportunities The Africa Progress Panel also acknowledges the following for their insights and contributions: Achala Abeysinghe (International Institute for Sustainable Development); John Asafu-Adjaye, John Kwabena Kwakye (Institute of Economic Affairs, Ghana); Jean- Claude Bastos de Morais (African Innovation Foundation); Firew Bekele Woldeyes (Ethiopian Development Research Institute); Sam Bickerseth (Climate Development and Knowledge Network); George Boden (Global Witness); Lloyd J.C. Chingambo (African Carbon Credit Exchange); Abdoulaye Digne (Consortium pour la Recherche Economique et Sociale); Geoff Duffy (UK Department for International Development); Luciani Giacomo (The Graduate Institute of Geneva); Marc Gueniat, Andreas Missbach (Berne Declaration); Emily Jones, Sangjung Ha, Ngaire Woods , Alexandra Zeitz, (Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government); Marie Jürisoo, Jacqueline Senyagwa, Hannah Wanjiru (Stockholm Environment Institute); Zitto Kabwe (Parliament of Tanzania); Wanjohi Kabukuru (Indian Ocean Observatory); Fatima Kassam (African Risk Capacity); Thomas Michael Kerr, Stacy A. Swann, Klaus Oppermann, Raffaello Cervigni (World Bank Group); Michel Lavollay (Public Private Partnership Europe); Malcom McCulloch (Oxford University, Department of Engineering Science); Vijay Modi (The Earth Institute, Columbia University); Chris Moll (Lexchange); Nader Mousavizadeh (Macro Advisory Partners); Benito Muller (European Capacity Building Initiative); Patrick Ngowi (Helvetic Solar Contractors); Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Johnson Oguntola (United Nations Economic Commission for Africa); Ebere Uneze (Centre for the Study of the Economies of Africa); Laurie Van der Burg, Shelagh Whitley (Overseas Development Institute); Henning Wuester (International Renewable Energy Agency); Thom Woodrooffe (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Marshall Islands); Xiao Zhao (New Climate Economy). We wish to express our gratitude to our organizing partners at United Nations Economic Commission for Africa and Oxford University Blavatnik School of Government. The Africa Progress Panel would like to acknowledge the generous support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Dangote Foundation, the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad) and the UK Department for International