RATING SYSTEM FOR PUNTING IN THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE MASTER OF SCIENCE BY THOMAS R. WOROSZYLO JR. DR. MUNNI BEGUM – ADVISOR BALL STATE UNIVERSITY MUNCIE, INDIANA JULY 2014 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to take this opportunity to thank Dr. Dale Umbach, Dr. Munni Begum, and Dr. Rebecca Pierce for their continued support and guidance through my graduate studies at Ball State University. All three were insightful and encouraging while I was working through my thesis and towards the completion of my degree. I would also like to express thanks to Dr. John Lorch and the faculty and staff of the mathematical sciences department for the assistance provided throughout the writing of my thesis. ABSTRACT THESIS: Rating System for Punting in the National Football League STUDENT: Thomas Raymond Woroszylo Junior DEGREE: Master of Science COLLEGE: Sciences and Humanities DATE: July 2014 PAGES: 40 The National Football League (NFL) currently has only one position, quarterback, for which there is a formula for calculating a single value to measure on-field performance during a game, season, or career. However, no player has a greater ability to affect field position in a single play than the punter. This study develops two punt ratings from official recorded punt statistics since the inception of the Super Bowl. The first rating is based on average punt length and measures punting performances from 1966 through the 1975 NFL season. The second punt rating measures punting performance from 1976 through the present and is calculated from two statistics: net average punt length and the percent of punts placed inside-the-20 yard line. The mean value of these ratings is fifty with a minimum and maximum score of zero and one-hundred, respectively. Furthermore, by comparing the careers of all punters, Ray Guy is confirmed as the most valuable punter to have played in the NFL; thereby validating his 2014 selection to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. i CONTENT Abstract i 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background . 1 1.2 Brad Maynard . 2 1.3 Ray Guy . 3 1.4 Quarterback Rating . 5 2 Materials and Methods 8 2.1 Collection of Punt Data . 8 2.2 Data Analysis . 10 2.3 Development of Punt Rating . 13 3 Results 17 3.1 Punt Rating . 17 3.2 Normalized Ratings . 19 4 Discussion 22 4.1 Team Summary . 22 4.2 Careers – Regular Season . 23 4.3 Careers – Post Season . 25 4.4 Season Honors . 27 5 Conclusion 29 Appendices 31 A Season Summaries . 31 B Top 50 Regular Season Teams . 32 C Top 50 Regular Season Punters . 33 D Top 50 Post Season Punters . 34 Bibliography 35 ii 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background Jim Tressel, former head coach of the Ohio State Buckeyes football team, was quoted in 2007 with saying, “The punt is the most important play in football” [11]. The punt is a play used at all levels of football in which one team strategically turns over the ball to the opposition by kicking it as far down the field as possible while attempting to keep it out of the end zone. By pinning the opposing team deep within their half of the field, a punter maximizes the distance the opposing team must move the football in order to score a field goal or touchdown. Currently there are no methods to determine the performance of a punter over the course of a game, season, or career other than the variety of officially recorded punt statistics. In fact, the quarterback is the only position on a National Football League (NFL) roster which has a statistical rating system. All other positions are compared based on recorded statistics such as receptions, sacks, interceptions, etc., but the quarterback remains the only position for which there is a formula to combine all recorded statistics into a single performance based rating. A rating for other football positions would be incredibly beneficial as it would allow NFL executives to better evaluate a player’s performance and value, which would aid in decision making as it relates to whether or not a team should sign, retain, or release certain players. Furthermore, with the support of an established statistical rating among professional athletes at a specific position, players with higher than average ratings would have increased leverage when asking for an extension or more guaranteed money during contract negotiations Today’s NFL has been in existence since the 1966 merger between the National Football League and the American Football League [15]. With the merger came the addition of the Super Bowl. And while the game repeatedly undergoes minor rule changes each off-season, the general format has remained consistent during the last 48 seasons. Of the 53 players on a game day roster, often one of the most valuable, but overlooked is the punter as he has the greatest ability to affect field position in a single play. As an example, there are 256 players drafted annually for NFL rosters; however, the 2014 NFL draft included only one punter, Pat O’Donnell from Miami University who was selected by the Chicago 1 Bears with the 191st overall pick of the draft [8]. In fact, going back through the last 25 years of the NFL draft there has been an average of only two punters selected annually, and instead many punters who make NFL rosters are selected and signed as undrafted free agents. However, as an example of the success achieved by punters who are drafted we’ll take a closer look at Brad Maynard, arguably the most successful varsity athlete to come out of Ball State University. 1.2 Brad Maynard Brad Maynard played football for Ball State University from 1993 through the 1996 season. All four seasons he was the team’s starting punter, and by the end of his senior season he set the school record for punts and punt yardage in a career while also setting the Mid-American Conference (MAC) record for career punt average. During his collegiate career he was not only a three time first-team All- MAC selection, but was also voted a first-team All-American in 1995 and 1996. Furthermore, in his senior season he was named the MAC’s defensive player of the year and became the first punter in Division IA history to be voted the conference Most Valuable Player (MVP) [6, 12]. During Brad’s senior season of college he was invited to the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine. In 1997 at the conclusion of his college career, Brad entered the NFL draft and was selected in the 3rd round (95th overall) by the New York Giants where he played professionally through the 2000 season. He then signed as a free agent with the Chicago Bears, where he spent the next 10 years of his NFL career [12]. Brad Maynard finished his career by playing the 2011 season for the Cleveland Browns, and by the time he filed his retirement papers he compiled numerous professional football records and achievements. During Maynard’s first season in the NFL he set league records for number of punts and punt yardage by a rookie [12]. He went on to set the NFL record for punts in a Super Bowl with 11, and helped his teams win four division championships, two conference titles, and was the starting punter in Super Bowl XXXV & XLI. He also holds the Chicago Bears franchise record for punt yardage in a season and career, punts inside-the-20 for a single game and season, and ranks second in team history in number of punts [12]. 2 In 2008, Brad Maynard was selected for induction into the Ball State University Athletics Hall of Fame. While Brad retired from football in 2011, there was one more accolade to come when in 2013 he received the prestigious honor of being inducted into the Mid-American Conference Hall of Fame [6]. By all accounts Brad Maynard achieved a great deal of success throughout his collegiate and profession football careers; however, he has hardly been the most accomplished punter in football history. For that honor we must look to the career of Ray Guy. 1.3 Ray Guy William Ray Guy, born in 1949 in Swainsboro, Georgia, attended college at the University of Southern Mississippi where he became an All-American for their football program [7, 18]. While Ray Guy had by all accounts a successful college career, he truly engrained himself in the history books through his years playing professional football. In 1973 Ray Guy was drafted by the Oakland Raiders with the 23rd overall selection, becoming at the time the first punter to be selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Furthermore, through the 2014 NFL draft, only one other punter, Todd Sauerbrun in 1995, has ever been selected as high as the second round [12]. Following the 1973 draft Ray Guy began his professional football career and went on to play fourteen seasons in the NFL – all for the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders. During this time, he amassed 207 games played and retired with an average of 42.4 yards per punt. He maintained a punt average better than 40.0 yards in all but one season; the strike-shortened season of 1982 when he finished with an average of 39.1 yards over nine games. Perhaps more impressive is that over the course of his career he compiled 1049 career punts, of which only 3 were blocked [7]. Accomplishments during his professional career include leading the league in punting three times, earning All-Pro honors six consecutive seasons, and seven career Pro-Bowl selections.