HOUSING NEEDS REPORT December District of Sooke 2019 Prepared by Urbanics Consultants Ltd. Suite 1207- 409 Granville St Vancouver, BC, V6C 1T2 District of Sooke: HOUSING NEEDS REPORT We acknowledge that the District of Sooke is located on the unceded traditional territory of the T'Sou-ke Nation. ii District of Sooke: HOUSING NEEDS REPORT Table of Contents 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1 Main objectives ........................................................................................... 1 Report structure .......................................................................................... 3 Limitations ................................................................................................... 4 2 Community context ........................................................................................... 5 Location ...................................................................................................... 5 Provincial economy ..................................................................................... 6 Local Economy ........................................................................................... 7 Demographic trends .................................................................................. 10 Household Growth .................................................................................... 12 Household income .................................................................................... 14 Population projections ............................................................................... 17 3 Housing supply ............................................................................................... 20 Housing stock trends ................................................................................. 20 Housing permits ........................................................................................ 23 Housing tenure .......................................................................................... 24 Non-market housing .................................................................................. 25 Housing suitability and adequacy .............................................................. 30 Shelter-cost-to-income ratio ...................................................................... 32 Core and extreme core housing need ....................................................... 34 4 Housing market characteristics ..................................................................... 36 Housing sales activity ................................................................................ 36 Rental housing .......................................................................................... 37 Affordability of market-rate housing ........................................................... 37 Affordability for households by type ........................................................... 39 5 Land utilization ................................................................................................ 42 Residential Zones ..................................................................................... 43 Residential uses and products by zoning categories ................................. 44 Land utilization analysis ............................................................................ 46 6 Current gaps in the housing market .............................................................. 50 Lack of serviced lands ............................................................................... 50 Affordability ............................................................................................... 51 Demographic and household shifts ........................................................... 53 7 Housing needs projections ............................................................................. 55 Housing needs as a result of growth in households .................................. 55 Development implications ......................................................................... 59 Non-market housing needs ....................................................................... 60 Potential new demand by the age of household maintainer ....................... 61 8 Best practices .................................................................................................. 62 iii District of Sooke: HOUSING NEEDS REPORT Current housing situation .......................................................................... 62 Potential strategies ................................................................................... 62 Provincial government role ........................................................................ 64 Federal government role ........................................................................... 66 Effective measures.................................................................................... 67 9 Findings and focus areas ............................................................................... 70 Address market-rate housing needs for all age cohorts ............................. 70 Address non-market housing needs .......................................................... 70 Enhance supply of rental housing ............................................................. 71 Enhance housing affordability ................................................................... 71 Facilitate development on vacant lands..................................................... 72 Prepare for anticipated growth in population aged 65 years and over ....... 72 10 Housing Action Plan ....................................................................................... 73 Objective: Address market-rate housing needs ....................................... 74 Objective: Address nonmarket housing needs ........................................ 78 Objective: Enhance supply of rental housing ........................................... 80 Objective: Enhance Housing Affordability ................................................ 81 Objective: Prepare for anticipated growth in population aged 65 years and over 85 Appendix 1: Online Survey Findings ......................................................................... 87 List of Tables Table 1: Economic Indicators: British Columbia ........................................................................................... 6 Table 2: Employment by major sectors, 2006 – 2016 .................................................................................. 7 Table 3: Employment by Industry (2-Digit NAICS Codes), 2016 .................................................................. 8 Table 4: Highest certificate, diploma or degree for the population aged 25 to 64 years in private households ...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Table 5: Commuting destination for the employed labour force aged 15 years and over in private households with a usual place of work ........................................................................................................................... 10 Table 6: Historical population trends ........................................................................................................... 12 Table 7: Trends in Household Size, 2001-2016.......................................................................................... 13 Table 8: Household Composition (2016 Census) ....................................................................................... 13 Table 9: Income Distribution - 2015 ........................................................................................................... 15 Table 10: Median Household Income Levels for Selected Household Structures ...................................... 17 Table 11: Total private dwellings versus private dwellings occupied by usual residents ........................... 20 Table 12: Number of Occupied Dwellings by Type - 2001-2016 ................................................................ 22 Table 13: Number of Bedrooms - 2011-2016 ............................................................................................. 22 Table 14: Housing Tenure 2001-2016, Sooke (District Municipality) ......................................................... 24 Table 15: Housing suitability ....................................................................................................................... 31 Table 16: Occupied dwelling and period of construction ............................................................................ 32 Table 17: Shelter-cost-to-income ratio ........................................................................................................ 33 iv District of Sooke: HOUSING NEEDS REPORT Table 18: Estimated proportion of households in core housing needs ....................................................... 34 Table 19: Estimated proportion of households in extreme core housing needs ......................................... 35 Table 20: Estimated proportion of households in core and extreme core housing needs, 2006-2016 ...... 35 Table 21: Current active listings in Sooke ................................................................................................... 36 Table 22: Home sales activity June 2018 – May 2019 ..............................................................................