Faculty of Applied Economics ESSAYS ON CENTRALITY AND INTERMEDIACY OF THE UKRAINIAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM An analysis on evolutionary and institutional change Thesis submitted in order to obtain the degree of Doctor in Transport and Maritime Economics Kateryna Grushevska Promotor: Prof. dr. Theo Notteboom Antwerp, 29 August, 2016 DOCTORAL JURY: Prof. dr. Theo Notteboom (promoter) University of Antwerp, Belgium; Dalian Maritime University, China; University of Gent, Belgium Prof. dr. Bruno De Borger (chairman) University of Antwerp, Belgium Prof. dr. Elvira Haezendonck (secretary) University of Antwerp, Begium; Free University of Brussels, Belgium Prof. dr. Evrard Claessens University of Antwerp, Belgium Prof. dr. Thanos Pallis University of the Aegean, Greece Dr. Wouter Jacobs Erasmus University of Rotterdam, Netherlands Prof. dr. César Ducruet French National Centre for Scientific Research-CNRS, Paris, France 2 Table of contents List of abbreviations: .................................................................................................................. 7 Earlier publications .................................................................................................................... 8 List of academic publications ................................................................................................. 8 List of public press publications ............................................................................................ 8 List of conference papers ....................................................................................................... 8 List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. 9 List of Tables ............................................................................................................................ 13 Abstract .................................................................................................................................... 15 Samenvatting ........................................................................................................................... 16 I. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 17 I.1 From Soviet to a sovereign state: the historical discourse on political, economic and institutional challenges of Ukraine ...................................................................................... 17 I.2 Theoretical and methodological grounding ............................................................. 19 I.3 Research study structure .......................................................................................... 26 I.4 Significance of Ukrainian transport networks ........................................................... 27 I.5 Research boundaries and limitations ........................................................................ 33 I.5.1 Focus on container flows ................................................................................... 33 I.5.2 Focus on transport modes ................................................................................. 35 I.5.3 Road transport in Ukraine.................................................................................. 38 I.6 Motivation and incentives for the integrated study ................................................. 41 I.6.1 Academic research motivation: contribution to the theoretical entity ............ 41 I.5.4 Demand side research motivation: understanding the market ........................ 46 I.5.5 Supply side motivation: nodes and networks .................................................... 46 I.5.6 Geopolitical motivation: transport network development in the transitioning economies ........................................................................................................................ 46 I.7 Objectives, approach and contribution .................................................................... 47 I.7.1 Paper one: From centrality to intermediacy in the global transport network? Ukraine’s trials and tribulations as a potential transit country ....................................... 48 I.7.2 Paper two: An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Multi-Port Gateway Regions in the Black Sea Basin ......................................................................................... 49 3 I.7.3 Paper three: Institutional rail reform: the case of Ukrainian railways .............. 50 I.7.4 Paper four: The development of river-based intermodal transport: the case of Ukraine 51 I.7.5 Paper five: The position of the Ukrainian port system in the global container shipping network ............................................................................................................. 53 I.8 Summary ................................................................................................................... 54 Chapter 1. From centrality to intermediacy in the global transport network? Ukraine’s trials and tribulations as a potential transit country ........................................................................ 55 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 55 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 55 2. Theoretical concepts of intermediacy and centrality ...................................................... 57 3. Methodology .................................................................................................................... 59 3.1 Interviews .............................................................................................................. 59 3.2 Survey .................................................................................................................... 60 3.3 Systematic review and synthesis of published studies using CASP ....................... 60 4. Research design ............................................................................................................ 60 5. Analysis of the survey and results synthesis ................................................................. 64 5.1 Survey based differences ........................................................................................... 64 5.2 Differences at the level of the systematic review ................................................. 65 6. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 66 Chapter 2 An Economic and Institutional Analysis of Multi-Port Gateway Regions in the Black Sea Basin .................................................................................................................................. 67 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 67 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 68 2. Theoretical models of port system development and port-hinterland dynamics .......... 70 3. Multi-port gateway regions in the Black Sea ................................................................... 71 4. Container throughput dynamics in the Black Sea ............................................................ 72 4.1. General overview ...................................................................................................... 72 4.2. Cargo concentration pattern .................................................................................... 75 5. Structural changes in the environment of Black Sea ports ............................................. 79 5.1. Economic changes at State level ............................................................................... 79 4 5.2. Changes in container liner shipping .......................................................................... 80 5.3. Hinterland connections ............................................................................................. 82 5.4. Institutional framework - port governance .............................................................. 85 6. Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 86 Chapter 3. Institutional rail reform: the case of Ukrainian railways ....................................... 89 Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 89 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 89 2. Theoretical framework ................................................................................................. 91 3. EU railway reform experience ...................................................................................... 93 3.1 European railway policy initiatives ........................................................................ 93 3.2 The Railway reforms outcomes ............................................................................. 94 4. Existing institutional railway frameworks ..................................................................... 95 4.1 The Swedish model ...............................................................................................