P3.3 A NEWSLETTER FORUM ON CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR NON-SPECIALISTS Michael A Fortune* Climate Science Forum, Silver Spring, Maryland ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Reliable News and Analysis in Climate Science http://climate-science.org 1. INTRODUCTION presenting them in language readily understood by leaders and opinion makers in Climate Science Forum focuses on recent business and government around the world. findings in climate science and on scientists’ discussion of climate variation, climate change, Climate Science Forum does not assume paleoclimates and other issues from published editorial positions in any matter of science or literature, meetings and interviews. It is written policy. Rather we feature a “Forum” that by atmospheric scientists for non–specialists in strives to present the viewpoints of several climate, in language accessible to decision spokespersons who differ on their makers and the interested public. interpretations of key issues in climate science. Forums have covered the issue of Land Use As an applied climatologist, you, the and Climate Change; whether human society reader strive to present information about your has likely affected the recent temperature rise products and services to decision makers in on Earth or not; whether climate prediction business, in federal, state and local models are able to forecast regional and government, and perhaps in the news media. seasonal climate correctly; whether society If you are a climate researcher, you hope to might benefit more from lowering air deliver your salient findings to these same pollutants first before lowering carbon dioxide audiences as well as your colleagues, but emissions. All of these discussions may be reports and journal papers typically do not viewed on the Preprint volume CD (section 3). reach the non-specialists. This newsletter is designed to bridge the information gap The newsletter has a variety of features, between climate scientist and user of climate including a "Climate Science Classroom"; information. Letters to the Editor; Reports on climate conferences and meetings; Seasonal climate The editors of Climate Science Forum summaries; and Interviews of some well- solicit your help in gathering your findings and known climate scientists. ____________________ * Corresponding author address: Michael A Fortune, The online Climate Science Forum uses Climate Science Forum, 300 Lexington, Silver Spring, active links to original articles or documents in MD 20901. E-mail: [email protected] . its citations. 2. WE NEED HELP ! 3. NEWSLETTER EXAMPLES FOLLOW i We need Editorial Board members. Below is the complete issue of Spring 2003, also available also at the newsletter site i We need news of your findings, http://climate-science.org . Other issues published results and work in progress. illustrate examples of interviews, seasonal cli- Investigators and their students are mate summaries, and forum discussions. invited to write succinct summaries for They have been placed in Preprint 4.12, non-specialists that we will publish. Second AMS Users’ Conference (Fortune, 2004) on this CD. i We need associates to work with us to produce the newsletter. We are eager to 4. Reference associate with University departments, faculty, state climatologists, regional Fortune, M., 2004: An “honestly neutral” climate centers and others who may be newsletter on climate variations and change able to assist in producing a for users of climate products. Preprint 4.12, professional publication with appeal to Second AMS Users Conference, Seattle WA, multiple sectors of society. American Meteorological Society, Boston MA. ________________________________________ Climate Science Forum Reliable News and Analysis in Climate Science SPRING 2003 - Volume 2 Number 1 Land Use affects climate “as much El Niño does” Roger Pielke: Even climates of faraway places are affected by regional land use practices Contents ● Land Use affects climate “as much El Niño does” ❍ Land Cover versus Greenhouse Gases as a Climate Forcing ● FORUM: Will El Niño become permanent on a warmer Earth? ● Sardines and Anchovies indicate a 50 year cycle in Pacific climate ● CLIMATE BRIEFS: ❍ Rainfall variability slowed growth but raised species diversity ❍ Next IPCC report on Climate Change will attack the issues head on ❍ National Research Council: Abrupt climate change is likely ● US Climate Plan lacks a Vision, priorities, and resources The 2 figures to the right show a computer simulation of thunderstorm cloud development over the Great Plains with two types of landscapes. At the top, the "real landscape" of crops, shrubs, and grasslands was used. The model simulated a large thunderstorm (which actually occurred in the real world). At the bottom, the "original landscape" of shortgrass prairie was used. The original landscape had less vegetation,so there was less water vapor to fuel thunderstorms. As a result, the model simulated only small cumulus clouds. Credit: Conrad Ziegler, National Severe Storms Laboratory http://www.climate-science.org/Vol2Num1/index.htm (1 of 2) [10/29/2003 8:36:21 PM] Climate Science Forum Modern civilization has changed the face of Earth wherever people have settled in large numbers. Farms have replaced forests, cattle ranches have replaced grazing buffalo and horses, cities and suburbs have replaced farms, forests, and marshes. Deserts have replaced grazing lands. These land use changes are known to have changed climate, but they are poorly documented before the age of satellites. In Europe and China, where land has been settled a long time, it may not be possible to know what the climate was like before human settlement began to affect it. According to Roger A Pielke Sr., professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University and State climatologist of Colorado, human use of the land is now altering the climate of some regions as much as greenhouse gases are doing. He claims that land use practices have impacted the climate as much as El Niño, which is famous for altering the climate of some regions for 2 to 5 years. But unlike El Niño, land use practices can not be considered temporary. FULL ARTICLE Land Cover versus Greenhouse Gases as a Climate Forcing :Michael MacCracken responds to Roger Pielke http://www.climate-science.org/Vol2Num1/index.htm (2 of 2) [10/29/2003 8:36:21 PM] storage change is proposed as a quantitative LETTERS to the measure of Earth system warming or cooling as a result of radiative flux divergence at the top of the Editor atmosphere. The ocean is by far the dominant reservoir of heat changes within the Earth system over decadal time scales. Thus we can use heat Roger A. Pielke Sr. writes: changes in the ocean to diagnose this radiative imbalance. Net heat input or removal from the The Spring 2003 issue of Climate Science Earth’s climate system must be associated with Forum mischaracterizes certain aspects of our fluxes through the top of the atmosphere. The research conclusions. ocean does not provide, however, any predictive information on the future direction of climate With respect to the effect of land-use change. Since the units of measurement are changes on the Earth’s climate system, it is the Joules, the rate of accumulation or loss of Joules spatial redistribution of heat that makes it tells us the radiative imbalance. Our work analogous to El Niño events. However, human documents that the radiative imbalance of the use of the land has changed the Earth’s climate system (as dominated by the surface of the Earth over larger areas than the oceans) for the 1950s to 1990s was about 0.3 area of well-above average temperatures in Watts per square meter. This is not the heating tropical Pacific waters during an El Niño. While “averaged over the entire surface of the Earth”, as both El Niño and land-use changes alter the reported in the Science Forum. This work is in general circulation model (GCM) simulations of http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/ the jet stream as a result of teleconnections (which pdf/R-247.pdf are climate effects observed at large distances from the cause), they do not induce the same On Dr. MacCracken’s response, I am not a simulated changes in the spatial pattern of the jet “climate skeptic.” I have written in many papers stream. that humans are altering the climate system. Our work suggests that the spatial redistribution of While there have, as of yet, been no GCM heat is more important in driving climate sensitivity simulations of the effect of potential variability and change that can be attributed to future land-use changes, the land-use changes human activity, than the globally-averaged which have already occurred appear to have radiative effect of additional CO2. Human-caused altered the climate, and may have had an effect on influences that redistribute heat over the Earth the Earth’s climate system that is at least as large include land-use change, the effect of CO2 and as associated with the radiative effect of doubling nitrogen deposition on plant growth and soil carbon dioxide concentrations. Both high latitude processes, and radiative and cloud microphysical regional cooling and warming occur in our land- effects due to pollution aerosols from vehicles, use change GCM experiments. Such regional high industry, and land disturbances. A summary of my latitude warming and cooling has been observed view and that of the American Association of in the last 30 years. This work is reported in State Climatologists regarding the complex, multi- http://blue.atmos.colostate.edu/publications/ dimensional character of the Earth's climate pdf/R-258.pdf . system is available from the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce at With respect to monitoring the heat http://energycommerce.house.gov/107/hearings/0 content of the oceans, the use of ocean heat 7252002Hearing676/Pielke,Sr.1144.htm Cllimate Science Forum Reliable News and Analysis in Climate Science SPRING 2003 - Volume 2 Number 1 Contents Home Land Use affects climate “as much as El Niño does” Roger Pielke: Climates of places far away are affected by regional land use practices Response - Land Cover versus Greenhouse Gases as a Climate Forcing Dr.