Scoping Study on Natural Resources and Climate Change in Southeast Asia with a Focus on Agriculture Report prepared for the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency by International Water Management Institute, Southeast Asia (IWMI-SEA) FINAL REPORT December 2009 (corrected version March 2010) IWMI : Robyn Johnston, Chu Thai Hoanh, Guillaume Lacombe, Andrew Noble, Vladimir Smakhtin, Diana Suhardiman WorldFish : Kam Suan Pheng, Choo Poh Sze Credits Authors IWMI: Robyn Johnston Chu Thai Hoanh Guillaume Lacombe Andrew Noble Vladimir Smakhtin Diana Suhardiman WorldFish: Kam Suan Pheng Choo Poh Sze Johnston, R.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Lacombe, G.; Noble, A.; Smakhtin, V.; Suhardiman, D.; Kam, Suan Pheng; Choo, Poh Sze. 2009. Scoping study on natural resources and climate change in Southeast Asia with a focus on agriculture. Report prepared for the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency by International Water Management Institute, Southeast Asia (IWMI-SEA). Vientiane, Laos: International Water Management Institute, South East Asia Office (IWMI-SEA). 118p. doi: 10.3910/2010.201 climate change / natural resources / environmental effects / agroecology / agricultural production / crops / cropping systems / farming systems / livestock / fisheries / food security / water management / economic aspects / rural poverty / policy / nutrient management / South East Asia / Cambodia / Laos / Thailand / Vietnam / Myanmar / China / Greater Mekong Subregion / Tonle Sap / Yunnan ISBN 978-92-9090-718-3 Copyright 2009 by IWMI and Sida. All rights reserved. Please send enquiries and comments to [email protected] Contents Contents ............................................................................................................................................ i Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................................ iii Executive Summary and Recommendations ..................................................................................... v 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Background ......................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of the Study ........................................................................................................................... 2 Structure of the Report ........................................................................................................................ 2 Data Sources Used in the Report ........................................................................................................ 3 2. Agricultural Systems and Trends in the GMS ............................................................................... 1 Trends in Agricultural Production in the GMS 1990-2007 ................................................................ 1 Agroecological Zones in the GMS ...................................................................................................... 5 Deltas and Tonle Sap .................................................................................................................. 8 Lowland Plains and Plateaus ................................................................................................... 12 Coastal Regions ........................................................................................................................ 15 Uplands ..................................................................................................................................... 18 3. Climate Change and Agriculture in the GMS .............................................................................. 22 Projections of Climate change in the GMS ....................................................................................... 22 Previous Studies ........................................................................................................................ 22 An Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature Change in the GMS 1960-2049 .............................. 23 Summary of Anticipated Changes of Climate in the GMS by 2050. ......................................... 27 Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture ...................................................................................... 28 Impacts on Cropping and Livestock Systems ............................................................................ 28 Impacts on Fisheries Production .............................................................................................. 31 Socioeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts ......................................................... 32 Responding to Climate Change......................................................................................................... 33 Adapting Agriculture to Climate Change ................................................................................. 33 Mitigation of Greenhouse Emissions from Agriculture ............................................................ 34 Response to Climate Change in AEZs ....................................................................................... 38 4. Other Drivers of Agricultural Change .......................................................................................... 45 Population Growth and Food Security .............................................................................................. 45 Impact of Changing Diets ................................................................................................................. 47 Urbanization ...................................................................................................................................... 48 Economic Growth and Poverty Alleviation ...................................................................................... 49 The Current Global Financial Crisis ................................................................................................. 51 Global Trade and the Role of China ................................................................................................. 52 Agricultural Exports ................................................................................................................. 52 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Agriculture ................................................................... 53 Role of China in Agriculture in GMS ........................................................................................ 54 Hydropower Development ................................................................................................................ 55 Climate Change in the Context of Other Drivers of Change ............................................................ 58 i 5. Rethinking Agriculture in the GMS .............................................................................................. 62 Securing Food Production ................................................................................................................. 62 Expansion of Areas under Production ...................................................................................... 62 Increasing Productivity ............................................................................................................. 64 Closing the utrient Cycle ........................................................................................................ 65 Improvements in Water Management ............................................................................................... 67 Improvement in Water Management in Rain-fed Systems ........................................................ 68 Improvement in Water Management in Irrigated Systems ........................................................ 70 Environmental Flow Management ............................................................................................ 71 Protecting and Restoring Ecosystem Services .................................................................................. 72 Mitigation of GHG Emissions from Agriculture .............................................................................. 72 Improving Livelihoods for the Rural Poor ........................................................................................ 73 6. Implementing Change in Agriculture ........................................................................................... 75 Mechanisms for Change ................................................................................................................... 75 Agriculture in the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategies ................................................. 77 Sida/SENSA’s Role in Climate Change and Agriculture in the Region .......................................... 80 Sida/SESA Policies and Programs in the GMS Region .......................................................... 80 Regional Actors in Agriculture and Climate Change ............................................................... 82 Engaging Regional Actors and Stakeholders ............................................................................ 82 7. Knowledge Gaps, Conclusions and Recommendations ............................................................... 87 Knowledge Gaps and Research Priorities ........................................................................................