Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report ___________________________________________________ Report for Nottingham City Council ED 10107 | Issue Number 6 | Date 16/05/2018 Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report | i Customer: Contact: Nottingham City Council Guy Hitchcock Ricardo Energy & Environment Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR, United Kingdom This report is the Copyright of Nottingham City Council. It has been prepared by Ricardo Energy & Environment, a trading name of Ricardo-AEA Ltd, under contract to Nottingham City Council t: +44 (0) 1235 75 3327 dated Click here to enter a date. The contents of e: [email protected] this report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to any organisation or person without the specific prior written permission of Nottingham City Council. Ricardo Energy & Ricardo-AEA Ltd is certificated to ISO9001 and Environment accepts no liability whatsoever to ISO14001 any third party for any loss or damage arising from any interpretation or use of the information contained in this report, or reliance on any views Authors: expressed therein. Michel Vedrenne, Anne Misra, Ancelin Coulon Approved By: Guy Hitchcock Date: 16 May 2018 Ricardo Energy & Environment reference: Ref: ED10107- Issue Number 6 Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED10107/Issue Number 6 Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report | ii Table of contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 4 2 Modelling scope ......................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Outline scheme options ..................................................................................................... 6 2.2 Model domain .................................................................................................................... 6 2.3 Modelling years ................................................................................................................. 8 2.4 Background modelling ....................................................................................................... 9 3 Air Quality modelling assessment ............................................................................ 9 3.1 Domain .............................................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Model selection................................................................................................................ 10 3.3 Air quality model receptor locations ................................................................................ 12 3.4 Base year modelling ........................................................................................................ 13 3.4.1 Base year and meteorological dataset ................................................................... 13 3.4.2 Road traffic modelling ............................................................................................. 13 3.4.2.1 Average daily vehicle flow and speeds ........................................................ 13 3.4.2.2 Vehicle fleet composition ............................................................................. 13 3.4.2.3 Representation of road locations ................................................................. 14 3.4.2.4 NOx/NO2 emissions assumptions................................................................. 14 3.4.3 Non-road transport modelling and background concentrations ............................. 14 3.4.4 Measurement data for model calibration ................................................................ 16 3.5 Projected future year scenario modelling ........................................................................ 16 3.5.1 Road transport future year baseline ....................................................................... 16 3.5.2 Scheme option modelling projections .................................................................... 17 4 Model results for 2016 base year and 2020 baseline ............................................. 18 4.1 Comparison with PCM ..................................................................................................... 18 4.2 Results for AQMAs and local exceedances .................................................................... 32 4.3 Model uncertainty ............................................................................................................ 36 Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED10107/Issue Number 6 Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report | iii Appendices Appendix 1 Air Quality Modelling QA Table Appendix 2 RapidAir street canyon equations Appendix 3 Air quality model verification and adjustment Appendix 4 Analytical assurance statement Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED10107/Issue Number 6 Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report | 4 1 Introduction Nottingham, like many other urban areas, has elevated levels of Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) due mainly to road transport emissions. Due to local air quality problems, Nottingham City Council (NCC) has designated 2 Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) across the City where concentrations of NO2 breach Government, health-based air quality objectives and has undertaken reviews of current and predicted levels in the future, including assessments of measures to reduce pollution levels. At the national level, the EU has commenced infraction proceedings against the UK Government and Devolved Administrations for their failure to meet the EU Limit Value for NO2. In 2015, the Supreme Court ordered the Government to consult on new air pollution plans that had to be submitted to the European Commission no later than 31 December 2015. As such DEFRA released plans1 to improve air quality, specifically tackling NO2, in December 2015. The Plans identify 5 cities outside London, including Nottingham, where the EU Limit Value for NO2 are not expected to be met by 2020. The Plans state that each of the cities identified could be legally required to introduce a formal charging-based Clean Air Zone (CAZ) for specified classes of vehicles and European Vehicle Emission Standards (Euro Standards) by 2020 or sooner. Figure 1 Nottingham Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) 1 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/air-quality-in-the-uk-plan-to-reduce-nitrogen-dioxide-emissions Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED10107/Issue Number 6 Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report | 5 The assessment undertaken for the Nottingham Urban Agglomeration by DEFRA as part of the 2017 UK Air Quality Plans indicated that the annual limit value was exceeded in 2015 but is likely to be achieved in 2024 through the introduction of measures included in the baseline. When combined with the Class B CAZ envisaged by DEFRA, it is expected that this zone will achieve compliance by 2020. The key roads identified by the DEFRA plan that exceed in 2015 the annual limit value of NO2 are in AQMA No. 2, which is the large, horseshoe-shape area close to the city centre of Nottingham. Other roads in exceedance are the Western Boulevard, and the National Road at the West of the city. Ongoing work by DEFRA to update its air quality plan is using more recent information on the expected real-world emission performance of vehicles. This latest analysis is suggesting that emission from vehicles will be higher than previously estimated and so breaches of the air quality limits are likely to persist for longer and over a wider area. It should also be noted that the source apportionment suggested that the exceeding roads in the Nottingham Urban Area are influenced notably by diesel cars, diesel LGVs and buses. With the objective of designing and putting in place a Clean Air Zone for Nottingham, Nottingham City Council has commissioned a detailed feasibility study for the CAZ covering the transport and air quality impacts of the scheme, and developing a business case for implementation. This report sets out the modelling needs in relation to assessing the air quality impacts of the scheme. Figure 2 Road transport NOx emissions source apportionment for the Nottingham Urban Area (2015). Source: DEFRA Ricardo in Confidence Ref: Ricardo/ED10107/Issue Number 6 Nottingham Clean Air Zone Modelling and Target Determination Report | 6 2 Modelling scope 2.1 Outline scheme options Nottingham has been requested by DEFRA to consider the implementation of a Clean Air Zone which is intended to restrict the use of the most pollutant vehicles. DEFRA have four classes of Clean Air Zone from “Class A” which is the least restrictive type covering buses and taxis only, through to “Class D” which covers all vehicle categories. Nottingham is most likely to deliver a “Class B” zone, which will restrict the use of buses, taxis and heavy goods vehicles (HGVs). In addition to the CAZ, Nottingham’s primary approach to reducing NO2 concentrations from road traffic has been to implement schemes which encourage the use of alternative modes of transport to the private car. Examples of these are: • the Local Taxi Strategy, which aims to get all taxis to meet a ULEV standard by 2025, with at least 40% of the fleet ULEV by 2020; • the Go Ultra Low Programme which funds the installation of fast charging points and grants for electric vehicles; •