September 2010 The ESPON 2013 Programme DEMIFER Demographic and migratory flows affecting European regions and cities Applied Research Project 2013/1/3 Deliverable 12/06 Demifer Case Studies Thessalia (Greece) “Challenge of decline” poorly faced by immigration Prepared by Minas Angelidis and Gabriella Karka National Technical University of Athens School of Architecture / Department of Urban and Regional Planning Athens, Greece EUROPEAN UNION Part-financed by the European Regional Development Fund INVESTING IN YOUR FUTURE This report presents results of an Ap- plied Research Project conducted within the framework of the ESPON 2013 Programme, partly financed by the European Regional Development Fund. The partnership behind the ESPON Programme consists of the EU Com- mission and the Member States of the EU27, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. Each partner is represented in the ESPON Monitor- ing Committee. This report does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the members of the Monitoring Committee. Information on the ESPON Programme and projects can be found on www.espon.eu The web site provides the possibility to download and examine the most re- cent documents produced by finalised and ongoing ESPON projects. This basic report exists only in an elec- tronic version. © ESPON & CNR, 2010. Printing, reproduction or quotation is authorised provided the source is ac- knowledged and a copy is forwarded to the ESPON Coordination Unit in Luxembourg. ESPON 2013 2 Table of contents Figures........................................................................................................................................... 1 Maps.............................................................................................................................................. 1 Tables into the Report ................................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1. Specification of the research questions and the aims (CNR - NTUA)................................................ 5 1.2. Physical geography, historical and economic background ................................................................ 6 1.3. Urbanisation and settlements, urban system..................................................................................... 9 1.4. Outline of the case study report....................................................................................................... 12 2. Review of existing analyses of demographic and migratory flows for Thessalia .................... 13 3. Demographic stocks and flows of Thessalia........................................................................... 13 3.1. Age structure of the population........................................................................................................ 14 3.2. Population change and its components........................................................................................... 18 3.3. Births and deaths, natural change, fertility rate, life expectancy...................................................... 22 3.4. International migration flows to Greece and Thessalia: intensity and provenance .......................... 25 3.5. Demographic characteristics of the foreign migrants and their contribution to the change of the demographic pattern in Greece and Thessalia ................................................................................ 30 3.6. Migration from other Greek regions to Thessalia, internal migration, total net migration to Thessalia ......................................................................................................................................... 31 3.7. Demographic characteristics of inter-regional and internal migrants for Thessalia and their contribution of the change of the demographic pattern.................................................................... 32 3.8. Implication of the total net migration to the change of the demographic pattern.............................. 32 3.9. Other composition of migrants......................................................................................................... 32 4. Economic change and population: the labour market of Thessalia ........................................ 33 4.1. Economic characteristics: GDP, unemployment.............................................................................. 33 4.2. Economic activity: composition of the economy, investments, fixed capital formation, gross value added, employment ......................................................................................................................... 35 4.3. Socio-demographic characteristics and changes in the working age population............................. 39 4.4. The role of migration........................................................................................................................ 40 5. Economic change and population: other aspects of Thessalia............................................... 40 6. Economic and social consequences of demographic change in Thessalia............................ 40 7. Remarks for the DEMIFER scenarios for Thessalia ............................................................... 41 8. Conclusions and the demographic challenges in Thessalia ................................................... 42 9. Annex I: Main problems of availability and quality of data ...................................................... 43 Bibliography – sources ................................................................................................................ 44 Figures Graph 3.1.1: Population age pyramid per sex 1991 Graph 3.1.2: Population age pyramid per sex 2001 Graph 3.2.1: Population of the prefectures of Thessalia 1991 - 2008 Graph 3.2.2: Population of Greece and the prefectures of Thessalia 1991 – 2008, 1991=100 Graph 3.3.1: Thessalia Live births 1990-2008 Graph 3.3.2: Thessalia Deaths 1990-2008 Graph 3.3.3: Thessalia natural increase 2000-2008 Maps Map 1.2.1: Situation of Thessalia in Greece Map 1.2.2: Thessalia region: LAU1 population density 2001, Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) population 2001 Map 1.3.1: Settlements’ network structure of Thessalia: Urban Morphological Zones (UMZ) Map 1.3.2: Settlements’ network structure of Thessalia: Population 2001 by Municipalities (LAU1) classi- fied (by NSSG) in mountainous / semi-mountainous / lowland and urban / semi-urban / rural Map 3.1.1: Thessalia: Ageing rate % (persons aged 65+ years / Total population) per LAU1 (municipalities) 2001 Map 3.2.1: Thessalia region: Population change % 1991-2001 per LAU1 (municipalities) mountainous, semi-mountainous, lowland Map 3.4.1: Thessalia region: Number of migrants 1995-2001 from / to Thessalia prefectures / rest of Greece / rest of EU-27 Tables into the Report Table 3.1.1: Population by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 1991 Table 3.1.2: Population by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 2001 Table 3.1.3: Population change by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 1991-2001 Table 3.2.1: Population of EU27, Greece and Thessalia 1971-2007 Table 3.2.2: Thessalia: population change 1991-2001 by urban, semi-urban and rural LAU1 units Table 3.2.3: Thessalia: population change 1991-2001 by mountainous, semi-mountainous and lowland areas Table 3.2.4: Resident population of 4 urban centres and 14 small cities of Thessalia 1991 - 2001 Table 3.3.1: Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural change rate (‰) 1991, 2001, 2007 in Greece and Thessalia Table 3.3.2: Total fertility rates 1990 – 2008 in the regions of Thessalia and Attiki Table 3.3.3: Life expectancy 1997-2008: EU-27, Greece, Thessalia by sex Table 3.4.1: Foreign population in Greece 2001-2009 Table 3.4.2: Share of foreign population of Greece and Thessalia in 2001 Table 3.4.3: Share of foreigners in the population of Greece in 2008 Table 3.4.4: Inter-regional and international migration to Thessalia from 1995 to 2001 Table 3.5.1: Number of births and deaths in Greece and Thessalia 2004-2008: nationals and foreign mi- grants Table 3.6.1: Inter-regional migration to Thessalia from 1995 to 2001 Table 3.9.1: Nationals, direct descendants of migrants and foreign residents, by educational level and em- ployment situation in Greece 2008 Table 4.1.1: EU27, Greece, Thessalia: GDP PPS at current prices per capita 1995, 2001, 2007 Table 4.1.2: Unemployment rate (population 15 years and over) - EU27, Greece, Thessalia % 1999-2008 Table 4.2.1: Gross fixed capital formation per sector in Greece and Thessalia 1995, 2001, 2004 Table 4.2.2: Gross value added (GVA) by sector in EU-27, Greece and Thessalia 1995, 2001, 2007. Table 4.2.3: Thessalia: Employment per economic activity 2001 Table 4.3.1: Economically Active Population (EAP) aged 15 and over of EU-27, Greece and Thessalia 2001 and 2007 by age and sex Table 7.1: Results of a number of DEMIFER scenarios for Thessalia Tables in the Annex Table 3.1.4: Population by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 1991 Table 3.1.5: Population by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 2001 Table 3.1.6: Population by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 1.1.2009 Table 3.1.7: Population change by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 1991-2001 Table 3.1.8: Population change by age groups, NUTS3 regions of Thessalia 2001-2009 Table 3.2.1a: Population of EU27, Greece and Thessalia 1991-2009 Table 3.2.2a: Thessalia: population