Absolute Zero Energy Emissions 2050 Delivering the UK’s climate change commitment with incremental changes to today’s technologies UKUK FIFI R E SS Absolute Zero UK demand for energy-intensive materials is growing, driving increased emissions in the UK and abroad. UK FIRES is a research programme sponsored by the UK Government, aiming to support a 20% cut in the UK’s true emissions by 2050 by placing Resource E ciency at the heart of the UK’s Future Industrial Strategy. Industry is the most challenging sector for climate mitigation – it’s energy e cient and there are no substitutes available at scale for the energy-intensive bulk materials - steel, cement, plastic, paper and aluminium. UK FIRES is therefore working towards an industrial renaissance in the UK, with high-value climate-safe UK businesses delivering goods and services compatible with the UK’s legal commitment to zero emissions and with much less new material production. UKUK FIFI R E SS Authors: Allwood, J.M.a, Dunant, C.F.a, Lupton, R.C.b, DOI: 10.17863/CAM.46075 Cleaver, C.J.a, Serrenho, A.C.H.a, Azevedo, J.M.C.a, Horton, P.M.a, Clare, C.c, Low, H.e, Horrocks, I.e, Murray, J. c, Lin, J.f, Copyright ©2019 University of Cambridge a d d e b Cullen, J.M. , Ward, M. , Salamati, M. , Felin, T. , Ibell, T. , First published 29th November 2019 Zho, W.f, Hawkins, W b. Contact details: UK FIRES is led by Professor Julian M a University of Cambridge Allwood FREng who can be contacted via info@uk res.org. b University of Bath We welcome comment or contributions to future editions of “Absolute Zero” . c University of Nottingham The authors have asserted their rights under the Copyright, d University of Strathclyde Designs And Patents Act 1988 to be ident d as authors of this work. e University of Oxford Imperial College. Executive Summary We can’t wait for breakthrough technologies to deliver net-zero emissions by 2050. Instead, we can plan to respond to climate change using today’s technologies with incremental change. This will reveal many opportunities for growth but requires a public discussion about future lifestyles. We have to cut our greenhouse gas emissions to zero by that we stop eating beef and lamb - ruminants who 2050: that’s what climate scientists tell us, it’s what social release methane as they digest grass - and already many protesters are asking for and it’s now the law in the UK. But people have started to switch to more vegetarian diets. we aren’t on track. For twenty years we’ve been trying to However the most difficult problem is cement: making solve the problem with new or breakthrough technologies cement releases emissions regardless of how its powered, that supply energy and allow industry to keep growing, so there are currently no alternative options available at scale we don’t have to change our lifestyles. But although some and we don’t know how to install new renewables or make exciting new technology options are being developed, it new energy efficient buildings without it. will take a long time to deploy them, and they won’t be We need to discuss these challenges as a society. Making operating at scale within thirty years. progress on climate change requires that the three key Meanwhile, our cars are getting heavier, we’re flying more groups of players - government, businesses and individuals each year and we heat our homes to higher temperatures. - work together, rather than waiting for the other two to We all know that this makes no sense, but it’s difficult to act first. But until we face up to the fact that breakthrough start discussing how we really want to address climate technologies won’t arrive fast enough, we can’t even begin change while we keep hoping that new technologies will having the right discussion. take the problem away. Committing to zero emissions creates tremendous In response, this report starts from today’s technologies: if opportunities: there will be huge growth in the use and we really want to reach zero emissions in thirty years time, conversion of electricity for travel, warmth and in industry, what does that involve? Most of what we most enjoy - growth in new zero emissions diets, growth in materials spending time together as families or communities, leisure, production, manufacturing and construction compatible sport, creativity - can continue and grow unhindered. with zero emissions, growth in leisure and domestic travel, We need to switch to using electricity as our only form growth in businesses that help us to use energy efficiently of energy and if we continue today’s impressive rates of and to conserve the value in materials. growth in non-emitting generation, we’ll only have to cut Bringing about this change, and exploring the our use of energy to 60% of today’s levels. We can easily opportunities it creates requires three things to happen achieve this with incremental changes to the way we use together: as individuals we need to be part of the process, energy: we can drive smaller cars and take the train when exploring the changes in lifestyle we prefer in order to possible, use efficient electric heat-pumps to keep warm make zero emission a reality. Protest is no longer enough - and buy buildings, vehicles and equipment that are better we must together discuss the way we want the solution to designed and last much longer. develop; the government needs to treat this as a delivery The two big challenges we face with an all electric future challenge - just like we did with the London Olympics, on- are flying and shipping. Although there are lots of new time and on-budget; the emitting businesses that must ideas about electric planes, they won’t be operating at close cannot be allowed to delay action, but meanwhile commercial scales within 30 years, so zero emissions the authors of this report are funded by the government to means that for some period, we’ll all stop using aeroplanes. work across industry to support the transition to growth Shipping is more challenging: although there are a few compatible with zero emissions. military ships run by nuclear reactors, we currently don’t Breakthrough technologies will be important in future but have any large electric merchant ships, but we depend we cannot depend on them to reach our zero emissions strongly on shipping for imported food and goods. target in 2050. Instead this report sets an agenda for a In addition, obeying the law of our Climate Change long-overdue public conversation across the whole of UK Act requires that we stop doing anything that causes society about how we really want to achieve Absolute Zero emissions regardless of its energy source. This requires within thirty years. Absolute Zero | 1 Key messages for industrial sectors Key Message: Absolute Zero creates a driver for tremendous growth in industries related to electrification, from material supply, through generation and storage to end-use. The fossil fuel, cement, shipping and aviation industries face rapid contraction, while construction and many manufacturing sectors can continue at today’s scales, with appropriate transformations. Leisure, sports, creative arts and voluntary work: These and internationally, is likely and would see high demand. sectors can expand greatly and should have a central The most efficient electric trains are aerodynamically position in national definitions of welfare targets. efficient, like those designed for the highest speed operation today, but travelling at lower speeds. Electricity sector and infrastructure: Absolute Zero requires a 3x expansion in non-emitting electricity Road vehicles: The transition to electric cars is already generation, storage, distribution and load-balancing. well under-way, and with increasing demand, costs will presumably fall. We already have targets for phasing out Construction sector: All new build should be to zero- non electric vehicles, but by 2050 will have only 60% energy standards of use. The impacts of construction of the electricity required to power a fleet equivalent are primarily about the use of materials, primarily steel to that in use today. Therefore we will either use 60% and cement. By 2050, we will have only very limited fewer cars or they will be 60% the size. Development cementitious material and will use only recycled steel, of auto-grade steels from recycling is a priority, and but there are myriad opportunities for radical reductions the need to control recycled metal quality may require in the amount of material used in each construction. changed models of ownership. The rapid expansion of Steel sector: All exsiting forms of blast furnace production, lithium battery production may hit short-term supply which are already under great pressure due to global constraints and create environmental concerns at end- over-capacity, are not compatible with zero-emissions. of-life unless efficient recycling can be developed. However, recycling powered by renewables, has International freight: We currently have no non-emitting tremedous opportunities for growth exploiting the fact freight ships, so there is an urgent need for exploration of that steel scrap supply will treble in the next 30 years. means to electrify ship power, and options to transfer to There are short term innovation opportuniteis related electric rail. This would require an enormous expansion to delivering the highest quality of steel from recycling, in international rail capacity. and longer-term opportunities for technologies for zero- carbon steel making from ore that could be deployed Aviation: There are no options for zero-emissions flight after 2050. in the time available for action, so the industry faces a rapid contraction.