A Market Potential Analysis for the TCAAP Site in Arden Hills, Minnesota Prepared for: Ramsey County St. Paul, Minnesota January 2013 1221 Nicollet Mall Suite 218 Minneapolis, MN 55403 612.338.0012 January 8, 2013 Ms. Heather M. Worthington, ICMA‐CM Deputy County Manager, Ramsey County Suite 250 Court House 15 West Kellogg Blvd. St. Paul, MN 55102 Dear Ms. Worthington: Attached is the analysis titled, “A Market Potential Analysis for the TCAAP Site in Arden Hills, Minnesota”. This Phase I market analysis examines current conditions in the housing and commercial/industrial real estate markets and determines the market potential for developing different types of owned housing, rented housing, commercial usess (retail, office, and hotel), and industrial uses in the Market Area. The study addresses the demographic and economic characteristics of the Market Area; rental market conditions; for‐sale housing; senior housing supply and demand; an analysis of the development potential for commercial space; and, an assessment of the demand for industrial space. Recommendations are provided for the various real estate tyypes identified as being needed in the Market Area. A Phase II analysis would provide detailed information regarding competitive properties in the marketplace to provide an indication oof pricing for the various land use components and recommend specific development concepts to optimize absorption. Please contact us if you have questions or require additional information. Sincerely, MAXFIELD RESEARCH INC. Matt Mullins Joe Hollman Vice President Senior Analyst Attachment (main) 612‐338‐0012 (fax) 612‐904‐7979 1221 Nicollet Mall, Suite 218, Minneaapolis, MN 55403 www.maxfieldresearch.com TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Title Page i. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................... 1 Purpose and Scope............................................................................................. 1 Site Analysis ....................................................................................................... 1 Demographic Analysis ........................................................................................ 1 Employment Trends ........................................................................................... 3 Housing Market Analysis .................................................................................... 3 Senior Housing Market Analysis ........................................................................ 4 Retail Market Analysis ....................................................................................... 5 Office Market Analysis ....................................................................................... 5 Hotel Market Analysis ........................................................................................ 6 Industrial Market Analysis ................................................................................. 6 Demand Summary ............................................................................................. 6 ii. PURPOSE AND SCOPE OF STUDY .................................................................... 8 A. SITE LOCATION ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 9 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 9 Regional Location ............................................................................................... 9 Arden Hills Characteristics ................................................................................. 10 Site Location and Characteristics ....................................................................... 14 Access and Visibility ........................................................................................... 16 Proximity to Housing, Employment, and Retail ................................................. 19 Appropriateness of the Subject Site for Redevelopment .................................. 20 B. DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 24 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 24 Market Area Definition ...................................................................................... 24 Population and Household Growth Trends ....................................................... 25 Age Distribution ................................................................................................. 28 Household Income ............................................................................................. 30 Household Tenure .............................................................................................. 34 Household Type ................................................................................................. 36 Summary of Demographic Trends ..................................................................... 38 C. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ................................................................................... 40 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 40 Employment Growth ........................................................................................ 40 Resident Employment ........................................................................................ 42 Covered Employment by Industry ..................................................................... 44 Commuting Patterns of Area Workers .............................................................. 47 TABLE OF CONTENTS (continued) D. HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS ......................................................................... 49 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 49 Residential Construction Trends ........................................................................ 49 Overview of Rental Market Conditions ............................................................. 52 Pending Rental Developments ........................................................................... 56 Rental Housing Demand Analysis ...................................................................... 57 Home Sales ......................................................................................................... 61 For‐Sale Housing Market Demand Analysis ....................................................... 67 E. SENIOR HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS ............................................................. 70 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 70 Senior Housing Defined ..................................................................................... 70 Senior Housing Market Area Definition ............................................................. 72 Older Adult (Age 55+) Population and Household Trends ................................ 73 Older Adult and Senior Household Incomes ...................................................... 75 Homeownership Rate ........................................................................................ 78 Home Sale Values .............................................................................................. 79 Supply of Senior Housing in the Market Area.................................................... 80 Pending Senior Housing Developments in the Market Area ............................. 82 Market Rate Adult/Few Services Senior Housing Demand ............................... 83 Demand for Congregate Senior Housing ........................................................... 85 Assisted Living Demand Estimate ...................................................................... 87 Demand for Memory Care Senior Housing ........................................................ 90 Senior Housing Demand Summary .................................................................... 92 F. RETAIL MARKET ANALYSIS .............................................................................. 93 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 93 Consumer Expenditure Patterns ........................................................................ 93 Retail Demand Potential and Leakage ............................................................... 96 Types of Retail Goods and Customer Shopping Patterns .................................. 98 Twin Cities Retail Market Conditions ................................................................. 99 Retail Development Potential ............................................................................ 102 G. OFFICE MARKET ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 104 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 104 Twin Cities Office Market Conditions ................................................................ 104 Business Growth by Type of Business ................................................................ 106 Growth of Office‐Using Jobs .............................................................................. 109 Office Development Potential ........................................................................... 110 Corporate Campus ............................................................................................