DISSERTATION Titel der Dissertation The Processes of Democratization in Global Comparison Strategic Choices of Oppositional Forces in Democratizing Societies with Case Studies of Ghana, Slovakia and Uganda Verfasserin Martina Ciganikova angestrebter akademischer Grad Doktorin der Philosophie (Dr. phil) Wien, 2010 Studiekennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 092 390 Dissertationsgebiet lt. Studienblatt: Afrikawissenschaften Betreuer: Univ.-Prof. Dr. Walter Schicho, Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dieter Segert Acknowledgments This PhD thesis was conducted within the framework of a three-year structural doctoral program, the Initiative Group Vienna School of Governance (ViGo), at the University of Vienna. In addition to the productive working environment the Initiative Group offered to its research fellows, my thesis could not have been accomplished without the support and assistance of my supervisors, friends, family and colleagues. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisors Univ.-Prof. Dr. Dieter Segert (Head of Political Science Department and ViGo faculty member) and Univ.-Prof. Dr. Walter Schicho (Head of African Studies Department) for their inputs, ideas, suggestions and recommendations, our fruitful discussions as well as their enthusiasm with respect to my research topic. My very special thanks go to a dear friend Conny (Pony) Rauchberger for being the best and most devoted editor I could have imagined. I am further grateful to ViGo Speaker Ass.-Prof. Dr. Josef Melchior for his commitment and support of my non-ViGo related activities, to Christina Plank (not only) for all the administrative back-up and to all fellow colleagues, especially Violeda Umali for her comments on the earlier drafts of my research proposal. I would also like to express my deep gratitude to my colleagues from the department of African Studies, all my friends and especially my partner for his patience and support when I got frustrated, felt stuck and did not see the end coming closer. However, the biggest THANK-YOU ever goes to my beloved mom, dad and brother for always being there for me. Dakujem! 2 Abstract This PhD thesis examines the role of oppositional forces in selected countries during their democratization period and explores how the choices and strategies of the opposition to enhance its competitiveness vis-à-vis the incumbent increase the likelihood of electoral autocracies to turn into electoral democracies. The dynamics of oppositional behavior and its role in protracted transitions are an important determinant for the processes of democratization by elections. My study concentrates on the game level (electoral competition/opposition choices) and analyses the various types of strategic choices and decisions employed by the oppositional forces in order to enhance their bargaining position for the inter-active dialogue with the meta-game level (incumbent position). By using examples of Ghana, Slovakia and Uganda I demonstrate how the selection of adequate strategic choices enables the opposition to improve its position and that the resulting “self- reinforcing” dynamics contribute to democratization of the society. The variation of actors’ choices when faced with the collapse of authoritarian regimes is not random as historical legacies at least initially shape the resources and expectations that help actors to define their interests and to select the ways and means to acquire political power. The operational tactics, behavior, and strategies applied by the oppositional forces in all selected case studies show many similarities and offer an interesting basis for a global approach for comparison of democratization processes and societies. The presented findings have been generated mainly from the conducted qualitative interviews with actors relevant to the transition processes during field research stays in all three countries of reference. 3 Abstrakt Diese Dissertation untersucht die Rolle oppositioneller Kräfte in ausgewählten Ländern im Zeitraum ihrer Demokratisierung und analysiert wie Wahlmöglichkeiten und Strategien der Opposition zur Steigerung ihrer Wettbewerbsfähigkeit gegenüber den Amtsinhabern die Wahrscheinlichkeit, Wahlautokratien in Wahldemokratien zu verwandeln, erhöht. Die Dynamiken oppositionellen Verhaltens und deren Rolle in langwierigen Transitionen sind eine wichtige Determinante für den Demokratisierungprozess durch Wahlen. Meine Studie konzentriert sich auf die Ebene des „game level“ (Konkurrenz bei Wahlen/ Handlungsmöglichkeiten der Opposition) und untersucht verschiedene Typen strategischer Wahlmöglichkeiten und Entscheidungen, die von den oppositionellen Kräften angewandt werden, um ihre Verhandlungsposition für einen interaktiven Dialog mit der Meta-Ebene des Wettbewerbs/ Handlungsspielraums (Amtsinhaberposition) zu verbessern. Anhand der Beispiele Ghana, Slowakei und Uganda zeige ich wie die Selektion von adäquaten strategischen Wahlmöglichkeiten es der Opposition ermöglicht, ihre Position zu verbessern und dass die daraus entstehenden „selbstverstärkenden“ Dynamiken zur Demokratisierung der Gesellschaft beitragen. Dass die Akteure ihre Wahlmöglichkeiten variieren, wenn sie mit dem Zusammenbruch des autoritären Regimes konfrontiert sind, passiert nicht zufällig, da diverse „legacies“ zumindest anfangs die Ressourcen und Erwartungen formen, die den Akteuren helfen, ihre Interessen zu definieren und die Wege und Mittel zu wählen, um politische Macht zu erlangen. Die operativen Taktiken, Verhalten und Strategien, die von den oppositionellen Kräften in jedem der ausgewählten Länder angewandt werden, weisen viele Ähnlichkeiten auf und bieten eine interessante Basis für einen globalen Ansatz, um Demokratisierungsprozesse und Gesellschaften zu vergleichen. Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse wurden hauptsächlich durch qualitative Interviews gewonnen, welche mit Akteuren, die für die Transitionsprozesse zentral sind, während Forschungsaufenthalten in allen drei genannten Ländern durchgeführt wurden. 4 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 8 1.1. AIM OF THE STUDY 8 1.2. WHY DEMOCRATIZATION BY ELECTIONS ? 10 1.3. WHY OPPOSITION ? 12 1.4. WHAT IS MY PUZZLE ? 15 1.5. MAIN CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE STUDY 18 1.6. OUTLINE OF THE THESIS 19 CHAPTER 2: THEORETICAL GUIDELINES 25 2.1. INTRODUCTION 25 2.2. DEFINING DEMOCRACY 26 2.3. DEMOCRATIZATION BY ELECTIONS 28 2.3.1. WHAT IS A TRANSITION ? 30 2.3.2. MENU OF MANIPULATION 32 2.3.3. ELECTIONS AS TWO -LEVEL GAMES 34 2.3.4. STRATEGIC CHOICES AND DILEMMAS 36 2.4. CONCEPT OF OPPOSITIONAL FORCES 39 2.4.1. ROLE AND CONTRIBUTION OF THE OPPOSITION IN A DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM 40 2.4.2. OPPOSITION AND ITS IMPORTANCE 41 2.4.3. BEHAVIOR OF OPPOSITIONAL FORCES WITHIN THE SPACE OF POLITICAL CONTESTATION 47 2.5. IMPORTANCE OF CIVIL SOCIETY IN DEMOCRATIZING SOCIETIES 53 2.5.1. MEANING OF CIVIL SOCIETY 55 2.6. CONCLUSIONS 56 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 58 3.1. INTRODUCTION 58 3.2. SELECTION OF CASE STUDIES 59 3.3. RESEARCH DESIGN 62 3.3.1. ACCESSING AND GENERATING DATA 63 3.3.2. INTERVIEWS 66 3.3.3. ANALYZING DATA 69 3.4. CONCLUSIONS 70 CHAPTER 4: GHANA - REVIVAL OF THE PAST 72 4.1. INTRODUCTION 72 4.2. HOW DID THE OPPOSITIONAL FORCES MANAGE TO SUCCEED ? 73 4.3. ANALYSIS OF THE LONG -TERM CAUSES FOR VICTORY OF OPPOSITIONAL FORCES 74 4.3.1. CONTINUING DEMOCRATIC PARTY TRADITIONS 74 4.3.1.1. Historical Background to Development of Party Traditions 76 4.3.1.2. Employment of the Traditions as Response to the Lifting of the Ban 81 4.3.2. COOPERATION AND LEVEL OF INVOLVEMENT OF OPPOSITIONAL FORCES 82 4.3.2.1. Historical Development of Civil Society in Ghana 83 4.3.2.2. Survival Strategies of the Oppositional Forces during Authoritarian Rule 85 4.3.2.3. Political Development of Oppositional Forces under the Fourth Republic 90 4.3.2.4. Contribution of Individual Oppositional Forces to Democratization 93 4.3.2.4.1. Media 94 4.3.2.4.2. The Church 97 4.3.2.4.3. Trade Unions 100 4.3.2.4.4. Students 101 5 4.3.2.4.5. ARPB - Association of Recognized Professional Bodies 102 4.3.2.4.6. Traditional Authorities 104 4.4. ANALYSIS OF THE SHORT -TERM CAUSES FOR VICTORY OF OPPOSITIONAL FORCES 107 4.4.1. INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES TO ENHANCE THE CREDIBILITY OF THE 2000 ELECTIONS 108 4.4.2. NPP STRATEGIES FOR WINNING THE 2000 ELECTIONS 112 4.4.2.1. Internal Party Provisions and Re-organization of the Party 112 4.4.2.2. Employment of Political Rhetoric as the Only Credible Alternative 114 4.4.2.3. Gaining Fund Mechanisms 116 4.4.3. INABILITY OF NDC TO APPEAL TO THE VOTERS 121 4.4.3.1. Arrogance as Cause of a Failure? 121 4.4.3.2. Lack of Internal Democracy within NDC 123 4.4.3.3. Factor Atta-Mills and Formation of National Reform Party 123 4.4.3.4. Process of Internal Stagnation and Missing of Rawlings Charisma 125 4.4.3.5. Economic Circumstances 125 4.4.4. UNDERLYING VOTING PATTERNS 127 4.4.4.1. Voting along Regional Lines 128 4.4.4.2. Urban-Rural Voting Pattern 128 4.5. CONCLUSIONS 130 CHAPTER 5: SLOVAKIA - THE NEW BEGINNING 131 5.1. INTRODUCTION 131 5.2. POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS LEADING TO THE 1998 ELECTIONS 134 5.3. CHARACTERISTIC FEATURES OF MEČIARISM IN THE 1994-1998 PERIOD 138 5.4. REACTION OF THE OPPOSITIONAL FORCES TO GROWING AUTHORITARIAN TENDENCIES 142 5.4.1. PUBLIC OPINION AND POPULAR DESIRE FOR CHANGE 146 5.4.2. ISSUES AT STAKE 149 5.4.3. PROFILE AND STRATEGIES OF THE OPPOSITIONAL FORCES TO ENHANCE COMPETITIVENESS 150 5.4.3.1. Political Parties 150 5.4.3.2. Media 153 5.4.3.2.1. Strategies of the Political Parties in the Media Pre-Election Campaign 157 5.4.3.3. Civil Society 160 5.4.3.3.1. Campaign OK ’98 162 5.4.3.3.2. Road for Slovakia 165 5.4.3.3.3. Rock the Vote Campaign 166 5.4.3.3.4. Other Important Initiatives 167 5.4.3.3.5. Cultural Personalities 168 5.4.3.3.6. Trade Unions 170 5.4.3.3.7. The Church 173 5.4.3.3.8. Research Institutes and Think-Tanks 175 5.4.3.3.9. Implications 175 5.4.4.