Growing within Limits G r o w i n g Growing within limits: tackling the challenge of climate w i t h change and biodiversity loss i n Two key challenges with respect to global environmental L i m i protection are to ensure sustainable energy supply while t s avoiding climate change, and to ensure food security while Hier komt bij voorkeur een flaptekst te staan, in plaats preventing dramatic biodiversity loss. Business-as-usual van deze algemene tekst leads to further degradation: an expected increase of global meanHet Planbureau temperature voor of 4deoC Leefomgeving by 2100 and a isfurther hét nationale worldwide lossinstituut of biodiversity voor strategische of 15% by beleidsanalyses 2050. op het gebied van milieu, natuur en ruimte. There is sufficient potential to correct current trends. Het PBL draagt bij aan de kwaliteit van het strategi- Climate change and biodiversity loss can be limited by sche overheidsbeleid door een brug te vormen tussen implementing policy packages aiming at zero-carbon wetenschap en beleid en door gevraagd en ongevraagd, energy options, energy efficiency, ecosystem conservation, onafhankelijk en wetenschappelijk gefundeerd, verken- higher agricultural yields and lifestyle changes. The ningen, analyses en evaluaties te verrichten waarbij een economic impacts are expected to be modest, despite integrale benadering voorop staat. considerable investment needs. The most significant challengePlanbureau is tovoor create de Leefomgeving the appropriate institutional conditionsLocatie Bilthoven for the required transition and to spur innovation.Postbus 303 An integrated approach is crucial, given important3720 AH trade-offsBilthoven and synergies between climate change mitigationT: 030 274 and 274 biodiversity5 protection and other important considerations,F: 030 274 4479 such as poverty reduction. Effective policiesE: [email protected] in this context require long-term targets and strict regulations.www.pbl.nl NetherlandsPlanbureau voorEnvironmental de Leefomgeving, Assessment september Agency, 2008 October 2009 Growing within Limits A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome Growing within Limits. A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome © Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, October 2009 PBL publication number 500201001 Corresponding authors: D.P. van Vuuren ([email protected]) and A. Faber([email protected]) ISBN: 978-90-6960-234-9 Parts of this publication may be reproduced, providing the source is stated, in the form: Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency: Growing within Limits. A Report to the Global Assembly 2009 of the Club of Rome, 2009 This publication can be downloaded from our website: www.pbl.nl/en. A hard copy may be ordered from: [email protected], citing the PBL publication number. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) is the national institute for strategic policy analysis in the field of environment, nature and spatial planning. We contribute to improving the quality of political and administrative decision-making by conducting outlook studies, analyses and evaluations in which an integrated approach is considered paramount. Policy relevance is the prime concern in all our studies. We conduct solicited and unsolicited research that is both independent and always scientifically sound. Office Bilthoven PO Box 303 3720 AH Bilthoven The Netherlands Telephone: +31 (0) 30 274 274 5 Fax: +31 (0) 30 274 44 79 Office The Hague PO Box 30314 2500 GH The Hague The Netherlands Telephone: +31 (0) 70 328 8700 Fax: +31 (0) 70 328 8799 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.pbl.nl/en Foreword In May of this year, the Dutch Environment Minister invited the Netherlands Envi- ronmental Assessment Agency (PBL) to analyse current trends in global environ- mental problems, in the context of the findings of the so-called ‘Limits to Growth’ publications by the Club of Rome, which have been published since 1972. Above all else, the Minister wanted to get a better insight into the available measures for controlling risks that might endanger sustainable development. The report was presented at the conference celebrating the 40th anniversary of the Club of Rome, in October 2009, in Amsterdam. The PBL delivered on this request in time for the conference, by building on ongoing and available research in this area. In the study, we contrast two scenarios: a current ‘trend scenario’ (depicting trends without major policy changes) and a ‘challenge scenario’ (depicting the options for change). The focus of the report is on the two clusters energy supply and climate change and agriculture and biodiversity loss. These clusters are considered key issues for addressing sustainable develop- ment. We also look into the interactions between them, and how they relate to targets for poverty reduction. The report shows that there is a large potential for a more efficient energy and food-supply system. The true challenge now lies in finding a governance regime that might deliver on this task. This integrated assessment may help facilitate timely action. We have to bear in mind that, although the 1972 report ‘Limits to Growth’ had great impact, the ecological dilemma which faced society then, is still with us today. Paradoxically, the current credit crisis seems to create a window of opportu- nity for a serious discussion on the basic values underpinning our economic system. For the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, this report is one in a series of three reports. The second report, called ‘Getting into the Right Lane for 2050’, focuses on strategic decisions the European Union needs in order to reach ambitious visions for energy, climate, land resources and transport by 2050. This report will also be published in the autumn of 2009. A third report, addressing the options for furthering sustainable development in the Netherlands, is due early next year. Professor Maarten Hajer Director of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency Foreword 5 6 Growing within Limits Contents Foreword 5 Summary ‘Growing within Limits’ 9 1 Global Environmental Challenges and the Limits to Growth 17 2 Environmental Challenges for the 21st Century 21 2.1 Limits to growth 21 2.2 The challenges ahead 25 2.3 Scenario analysis as a tool to explore uncertain futures 32 3 Towards a Low-carbon Economy 41 3.1 Where does business-as-usual takes us? 41 3.2 What is needed to reduce climate risks? 45 3.3 A strategy of a post-carbon society 50 3.4 Elements of effective climate policy 56 3.5 Co-benefits and trade-offs: implications for energy security, air pollution and land use 61 3.6 Conclusions 65 4 Towards Biodiversity Preservation and Efficient Land Use 67 4.1 Where does business-as-usual take us? 67 4.2 What is needed to stop biodiversity loss? 74 4.3 Towards a strategy for reducing biodiversity loss 75 4.4 Scope to halt biodiversity loss 84 4.5 Conclusions 88 5 Strategy and policies 89 5.1 The Trend and Challenge scenarios 89 5.2 Thematic interlinkages: dilemmas, co-benefits and trade-offs 90 5.3 Policy: vision, targets and measures 97 5.4 The institutional dimension: conflicts of multiple interests 109 5.5 A politics of limits 115 Abbreviations 117 References 119 Colophon 125 Contents 7 8 Growing within Limits Summary ‘Growing within Limits’ Current and projected future trends indicate an unprecedented increase in average human welfare – but at a cost of a further degradation of the global environment. Two key challenges with respect to the global environment are to ensure sustainable energy supply while avoiding climate change, and to ensure food security while preventing dramatic biodiversity loss. Business-as-usual leads to an expected increase of global mean temperature of 4oC by 2100 and a further worldwide loss of biodiversity of 15% by 2050. The risks of the ‘Business-as-usual’ are now well understood and could severely threaten the sustainability of human society. However, there is sufficient potential to correct current trends. Climate change and biodiversity loss can be limited by implementing policy packages aiming at zero-carbon energy options, energy efficiency, ecosystem conservation, higher agricultural yields and lifestyle changes. The economic impacts are expected to be modest, despite considerable investment needs. The most significant challenge is to create the appropriate institutional conditions to spur off the shift to innovation and fundamental transitions that will help bring about a ‘green’ economy. Here, an integrated approach is crucial, given important trade-offs and synergies between climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection and other important considerations, including the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. Effective policies in this context require long-term targets and strict regulations to reach these. The current economic crisis might serve as an opportunity to foster this process of change. What is the problem? Human society will face severe problems when global bio-physical trends in climate change and biodiversity loss continue Since the publication of ‘The Limits to Growth’ for the Club of Rome in 1972, it has become increasingly clear that the current trends in the consumption of fossil fuel and other resources, use of land, and pressure on the Earth’s capacity to deal with pollution lead to serious environmental risks. In numerous global environmental assessments published since 1972, more detailed analyses have been made in terms of analysis of specific environmental problems and their