lutEs T o w a r d a T h e o r y o f and hays Spacepower Toward a Theory of this volume is a product of the efforts of the institute for national strategic studies spacepower theory Project team, which was tasked by the Selected Essays department of defense to create a theoretical framework for examining spacepower and its relationship to the achievement of national objectives. the team was charged with considering the space domain in a broad and holistic way, incorporating a wide range of perspectives from u.s. and E d i t E d b y C h a r l E s d . l u t E s a n d P E t E r l . h a y s international space actors engaged in scientific, commercial, intelligence, w i t h V i n ce n t a . M a n z o , l i s a M . y a M b r i C k, and M. Elain E b u n n and military enterprises. this collection of papers commissioned by the team serves as a starting Spacepower point for continued discourse on ways to extend, modify, refine, and integrate a broad range of viewpoints about human-initiated space activity, its relationship to our globalized society, and its economic, political, and security interactions. it will equip practitioners, scholars, students, and citizens with the historical background and conceptual framework to navigate through and assess the challenges and opportunities of an increasingly complex space environment. Edited by Charles d. lutes and Peter l. hays with Vincent a. Manzo, lisa M. yambrick, and M. Elaine bunn, with contributions from: henry F. Cooper, Jr. Michael katz-hyman scott Pace Everett C. dolman Michael krepon robert l. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. Martin E.b. France benjamin s. lambeth Jerry Jon sellers Colin s. Gray roger d. launius John b. sheldon henry r. hertzfeld John M. logsdon harold r. winton theresa hitchens Michael E. o’hanlon simon P. worden Institute for National Strategic Studies National Defense University Toward a Theory of Spacepower: Selected Essays Toward a Theory of Spacepower Selected Essays Edited by Charles D. Lutes and Peter L. Hays with Vincent A. Manzo, Lisa M. Yambrick, and M. Elaine Bunn National Defense University Press Washington, D.C. 2011 Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited. Portions of this book may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided that a standard source credit line is included. NDU Press would appreciate a courtesy copy of reprints or reviews. First Printing, February 2011 NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Office. For ordering informa- tion, call (202) 512-1800 or write to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Print- ing Office, Washington, DC 20402. For the U.S. Government On-Line Bookstore, go to: http://bookstore.gpo.gov For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, please go to the National Defense University Web site at: http://www.ndu.edu/inss Contents List of Illustrations . ix Acknowledgments . xi Introduction . .xiii Part I: The Building Blocks of Spacepower Theory Chapter 1 Theory Ascendant? Spacepower and the Challenge of Strategic Theory John B. Sheldon and Colin S. Gray. 1 Chapter 2 On the Nature of Military Theory Harold R. Winton. 19 Chapter 3 International Relations Theory and Spacepower Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Jr. 37 Chapter 4 Real Constraints on Spacepower Martin E.B. France and Jerry Jon Sellers. 57 v vi TOWARD A THEORY OF SPACEPOWER Part II: Space and National Security Chapter 5 Increasing the Military Uses of Space Everett C. Dolman and Henry F. Cooper, Jr. 97 Chapter 6 Preserving Freedom of Action in Space: Realizing the Potential and Limits of U.S. Spacepower Michael Krepon, Theresa Hitchens, and Michael Katz-Hyman. 119 Chapter 7 Balancing U.S. Security Interests in Space Michael E. O’Hanlon . 137 Chapter 8 Airpower, Spacepower, and Cyberpower Benjamin S. Lambeth. 155 Part III: Civil, Commercial, and Economic Space Perspectives Chapter 9 History of Civil Space Activity and Spacepower Roger D. Launius. 179 Chapter 10 Commercial Space and Spacepower Henry R. Hertzfeld. 215 CONTENTS vii Chapter 11 Merchant and Guardian Challenges in the Exercise of Spacepower Scott Pace. 241 Part IV: The Future of Spacepower Chapter 12 Emerging Domestic Structures: Organizing the Presidency for Spacepower John M. Logsdon. 277 Chapter 13 Space Law and the Advancement of Spacepower Peter L. Hays . 299 Chapter 14 Future Strategy and Professional Development: A Roadmap Simon P. Worden. 319 About the Contributors . 341 Illustrations Figures Figure 4–1. Mission Architecture. 60 Figure 4–2. Elliptical Orbit Parameters. 63 Figure 4–3. Classical Orbital Elements for Earth Orbits. 64 Figure 4–4. Satellite Field of View. 65 Figure 4–5. Types of Orbits and their Inclinations. 66 Figure 4–6. Satellite Ground Tracks . 67 Figure 4–7. Orbital Ground Tracks with Different Periods . 68 Figure 4–8. Orbital Ground Tracks with Different Inclinations. 68 Figure 4–9. Orbital Ground Tracks with Different Perigee Locations . 69 Figure 4–10. Hohmann Transfer. 70 Figure 4–11. Coplanar Rendezvous. 71 Figure 4–12. Co-orbital Rendezvous. 72 Figure 4–13. Simple Inclination Plane Change . 73 Figure 4–14. Simple Plane Change. 73 Figure 4–15. Effects of Drag on Eccentric Low Earth Orbit. 74 Figure 4–16. Perigee Rotation Rate. 75 Figure 4–17. Nodal Regression Rate. 76 Figure 4–18. Launch Windows. 77 Figure 4–19. Phases of Launch Vehicle Ascent. 78 Figure 4–20. Interaction between Solar Wind and Earth’s Magnetic Field. 85 Figure 4–21. Electromagnetic Spectrum. 88 Figure 4–22. Atmospheric Windows. 88 Figure 4–23. Satellite Coverage Strategies. 91 ix x TOWARD A THEORY OF SPACEPOWER Figure 5–1. Triangulating the Space Exploitation Debate. 100 Figure 5–2. Gravitational Terrain of Earth-Moon Space. 105 Figure 9–1. NASA Budget as a Percentage of Federal Budget. 187 Figure 9–2. Public Attitudes about Government Funding for Space Trips. 188 Figure 9–3. Launch Vehicles, 1953–2000. 190 Figure 9–4. Is the Soviet Union Ahead of the United States in Space?. 197 Figure 10–1. Degrees of Globalization. 218 Figure 10–2. Commercial Space in Presidential Space Policy . 224 Figure 14–1. Timetable: High Resolution and Synthetic Aperture Radar Satellites. 324 Tables Table 4–1. Space Mission and Constraints. 61 Table 4–2. Satellite Missions and Orbits. 66 Table 4–3. Rocket Propulsion Types and Performance Comparison . 79 Table 11–1. Viability of Space Settlement. 264 Acknowledgments The editors thank all of the authors who contributed their time, insights, and energy to completing the papers that form this volume. The editors also express their deep appreciation to their fellow mem- bers of the Spacepower Theory Project—Colonel Michael S. Bell, USA; Colonel M.V. Smith, USAF; Lieutenant Colonel Robert Klingseisen, USA; and Mr. Will Lahneman, formerly of the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the National Defense University (NDU)—for their dedi- cated work in conducting this multifaceted effort. The spacepower team did an exceptionally fine job in reaching out to diverse communities of experts in all aspects of space activity. The editors also thank key offices in the Department of Defense for their steadfast support and insights. We are particularly grateful to Mr. Thomas G. Behling, former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Intelli- gence (Preparation and Warning); Mr. Ryan Henry, former Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Major General James B. Armor, USAF (Ret.), former Director of the National Security Space Office; Mr. Joseph Rouge, current Director of the National Security Space Office; and all their staffs. We benefited greatly from our close collabora- tion with the Eisenhower Center for Space and Defense Studies at the U.S. Air Force Academy and its director, Ambassador Roger Harrison. Indeed, a multitude of individuals, too numerous to mention here, contributed essays, presentations, dialogue, and intellectual insights in support of this effort, and we are most grateful for their assistance. At NDU, special thanks are due to former NDU President, Lieu- tenant General Frances C. Wilson, USMC (Ret.), and current President, Vice Admiral Ann E. Rondeau, USN, for their unstinting support. We thank current and former INSS colleagues Dr. Phillip C. Saunders, Colonel Michael P. Hughes, USAF, Mr. Joseph McMillan, Dr. Eugene B. Rumer, Captain Mark E. Redden, USN, and Dr. James A. Schear. We also thank former INSS directors Dr. Stephen J. Flanagan and Dr. Pat- rick M. Cronin, former interim director Dr. Christopher J. Lamb, and current director Dr. Hans Binnendijk. We are indebted to the INSS xi xii TOWARD A THEORY OF SPACEPOWER Center for Strategic Conferencing, specifically Mr. Gerald Faber and Mr. Edwin Roman, for hosting a number of workshops and confer- ences. NDU Press has provided invaluable support in editing and pub- lishing our products. We specifically thank its former director, Colonel David H. Gurney, USMC (Ret.), and its current acting director, Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III, and his staff, including Mr. George Maerz. Finally, our work was ably assisted by a number of interns, especially Bradley Miller, Jennifer Roark, and Melissa Latham. Introduction The concept and rationale for a study of spacepower theory origi- nated in conversations among Department of Defense (DOD) officials during the latter phases of the George W. Bush administration’s final Quadrennial Defense Review.1 After several discussions with researchers in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at National Defense University (NDU), the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Intelli- gence (Preparation and Warning) requested that NDU “craft a space- power theory similar to that of other domains, for example, sea power.”2 The terms of reference for this project specifically asked INSS to: develop a theoretical framework for examining the funda- mental aspects of spacepower and its relation to the pursuit of national security, economic, informational, and scientific objectives.