SHADOW BOXING: HOW THE RISK OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION SHAPES TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES Brian J. McFillen Submitted to the faculty of the University Graduate School In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy In the Department of Political Science, Indiana University October 2013 Accepted by the Graduate Faculty, Indiana University, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Doctoral Committee ____________________________________ Sumit Ganguly, Ph.D. ____________________________________ Michael D. McGinnis, Ph.D. ____________________________________ Timothy Hellwig, Ph.D. ____________________________________ Matthew Semadeni, Ph.D. September 9, 2013 ii Copyright © 2013 Brian J. McFillen iii Acknowledgements While that might be my name on the title page, the fact is that it was only through the help of a whole bunch of people that this dissertation ever came to completion. First, I would like to thank my parents, my brother, and my late grandparents, whose support was unstinting even when it seemed like the end of the road was nowhere in sight. Second, I would like to thank the members of my dissertation committee: Timothy Hellwig, Michael McGinnis, Matthew Semadeni, and especially the committee’s chair and my advisor, Sumit Ganguly, whose generosity with his time, advice, and employment opportunities could not have been greater. And finally, I would like to thank all the friends who provided vital feedback, kind words, hot meals, and the countless other things that kept me going until the work was done: Amanda, Manjo, Nico and Eve, Scott and Amanda Nissen, Maddy, Sharon, Dom, Matt and Sara, Brandon and Patti, Mike, Becca, Christie, Daniel, the guys at the warehouse, and the Leeloo-Monster. iv Brian J. McFillen SHADOW BOXING: HOW THE RISK OF GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION SHAPES TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES For a non-state terrorist group, internal communication and coordination are necessary to maintain organizational control and implement the group’s strategy; but this need for interpersonal contact also makes the group vulnerable to disruption by government authorities. How then might these competing demands shape a group’s organizational structure? This dissertation will examine how the presence or absence of a safe haven can interact with a group’s choice of organizational structure to determine its ability to survive, conduct attacks, and mobilize supporters. Furthermore, it will look at whether and how groups change their organizational structures to adapt to their political environments. To this end, process tracing, the congruence procedure type 2, and cross-case comparison will applied to the cases of four Western, Cold War-era groups (The Provisional Irish Republican Army, The Red Army Faction, The Red Brigades and The Weather Underground) to both identify the critical factors that impact group organizational structure and to explain how these factors exert their influence. ____________________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________________________ ____________________________________ v Table of Contents Chapter 1: Introduction .......................................................................................................... x Research Question and Theory .......................................................................................................... 1 Methodology and Results ..................................................................................................................... 3 The Study of Terrorist Organizations: Bringing Environment Back In ............................... 6 Chapter Structure .................................................................................................................................... 9 Literature & Theory ............................................................................................................................. 10 Describing the Organization of Terrorist Groups: The Hierarchical vs. Cellular-Network Debate ....................................................................................................................................................... 11 A Short Note on Terrorist Non-Organizations............................................................................ 21 Explanations for the Designs of Terrorist Group Organizational Structures ................. 24 Historical and Cultural Context ....................................................................................................................... 24 Technology ............................................................................................................................................................... 28 Security ...................................................................................................................................................................... 29 Contingency Theory, Environmental Factors, Uncertainty and Organizational Structure ..................................................................................................................................................................... 33 Security vs. Insecurity: Contributing Factors ............................................................................. 38 Chapter 2: Research Design and Methodology ............................................................ 41 Theory ...................................................................................................................................................... 41 Qualitative Tests ................................................................................................................................... 44 Definition and Operationalization of the Variables ................................................................................. 44 Qualitative Methods ............................................................................................................................................. 49 Case Selection .......................................................................................................................................................... 51 vi Chapter 3: The Provisional Irish Republican Army .................................................. 59 Chapter Objective and Structure ..................................................................................................... 59 Analytical Overview ............................................................................................................................. 60 Background............................................................................................................................................. 62 Organizational Structure ................................................................................................................... 68 1969-1976 ................................................................................................................................................................ 68 1977-1997 ................................................................................................................................................................ 70 Safe Haven Conditions ........................................................................................................................ 72 Northern Ireland .................................................................................................................................................... 72 The Republic of Ireland ....................................................................................................................................... 76 Alternative Factors .............................................................................................................................. 81 Leadership Shift and Strategic Change ......................................................................................................... 82 Counterterrorism Tactics ................................................................................................................................... 84 Conclusion and Notes .......................................................................................................................... 87 Chapter 4: The Red Brigades ............................................................................................. 89 Chapter Objective and Structure ..................................................................................................... 89 Analytical Overview ............................................................................................................................. 89 Background............................................................................................................................................. 91 Organizational Structure ................................................................................................................... 99 Safe Haven Conditions ...................................................................................................................... 103 Alternative Factors ............................................................................................................................ 104 Conclusion and Notes ........................................................................................................................ 105 Chapter 5: The Red Army Faction ................................................................................