The research described in this report was prepared for RAND’s Center for Middle East Public Policy. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Larrabee, F. Stephen. Turkish foreign policy in an age of uncertainty / F. Stephen Larrabee, Ian O. Lesser. p. cm. “MR-1612.” Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8330-3281-X 1. Turkey—Foreign relations—1980– I. Lesser, Ian O., 1957– II.Title. DR477 .L37 2002 357.561'09'0511—dc21 2002015207 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Stephen Bloodsworth © Copyright 2003 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2003 by RAND 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] PREFACE Not since the end of the Cold War, and perhaps not since the early days of the Turkish Republic, has Turkey’s external role been charac- terized by so many open questions. What place for Turkey in Eu- rope? What risks and opportunities for Turkey in a conflict-ridden Middle East? How will Ankara deal with a changing Russia, an un- stable Caucasus, and Central Asia? To what extent can a traditionally competitive relationship with Greece be moderated, against a back- ground of successive Balkan crises? Turkey may be a pivotal state in Western perception, but uncertainties in transatlantic relations may make the very concept of the “West” unclear as seen from Ankara. Above all, Turkey faces daunting political, economic, and social pres- sures, with implications for the vigor and direction of the country’s foreign and security policies. The range of possibilities is now quite wide, from a more globalized Turkey, more closely integrated in Eu- rope and the West, with a multilateral approach toward key regions, to a more inward-looking and nationalistic Turkey, pursuing a more constrained or unilateral set of regional policies. This book seeks to describe the challenges and opportunities facing Turkey in the international environment at a time of extraordinary flux and offers some conclusions about the country’s future. The analysis should be of interest to policymakers and observers in Turkey, in the West, and elsewhere and contribute to informed de- bate about the country’s role. The volume builds on a substantial body of RAND work on Turkey and related topics undertaken over the last decade. This study extends and updates this tradition of analysis. In addition to exploring the internal and regional dimen- sions of Turkish foreign policy, we have given special emphasis iii ivTurkish Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty throughout to the strategic and security issues facing Turkey. These include a number of new issues posed by the terrorist attacks on the United States of September 2001 and the looming confrontation with Iraq. The research for this study was conducted within RAND’s Center for Middle East Public Policy. The center takes an integrative approach to policy studies, applying RAND expertise in strategic and defense analyses, science and technology, human capital, and other areas to the complex issues facing the Middle East and nearby regions. CONTENTS Preface ......................................... iii Summary ....................................... ix Acknowledgments................................. xvii Acronyms ....................................... xix Chapter One INTRODUCTION: TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY IN TRANSITION ................................. 1 Turkey as a “Pivot” State ......................... 2 Turkey as a Regional Actor........................ 3 The Transnational Dimension ..................... 8 Internal Change ............................... 9 Why This Book?................................ 12 Chapter Two THE CHANGING DOMESTIC CONTEXT ............. 15 An Economic—and Political—Crisis ................ 15 A Question of Vision ............................ 18 Whither the Strong State? ........................ 21 The Role of the Military .......................... 27 New Actors in a Changing Society .................. 30 Public Opinion and the Media ..................... 33 Security Policy Through a Domestic Lens............. 36 Islamism, Nationalism, and Turkish Identity .......... 40 Domestic Stability and Turkey’s Foreign Policy Potential ................................. 42 v vi Turkish Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty Chapter Three TURKEY AND EUROPE .......................... 45 Turkey and EC Enlargement ...................... 47 The Impact of Eastern Enlargement ................. 50 The Helsinki Summit ........................... 51 The Economic Dimension ........................ 54 Democracy and Human Rights .................... 56 The Kurdish Issue .............................. 58 The Islamic Factor.............................. 60 Civilian Control of the Military .................... 63 Greece and Cyprus ............................. 64 The Defense and Security Dimension ............... 65 The American Factor............................ 68 The Difficult Path Ahead ......................... 69 Chapter Four RELATIONS WITH GREECE AND THE BALKANS ....... 71 The Historical Legacy ........................... 72 The Aegean Dispute ............................ 74 The Cyprus Conflict ............................ 77 Prospects for a Settlement ........................ 80 The Minority Issue ............................. 82 New Regional Geometries ........................ 83 Earthquake Diplomacy and the New Detente .......... 84 The American Factor............................ 88 The Domestic Dimension ........................ 92 The Wider Balkan Stage.......................... 93 Chapter Five TURKEY AND EURASIA ......................... 99 Central Asia .................................. 100 The Changing Strategic Context.................... 103 Growing Strategic Interest in the Caucasus ........... 104 The Energy Dimension .......................... 107 The Russian Factor ............................. 112 U.S.-Turkish Strategic Cooperation in Eurasia ......... 115 Iran’s Role.................................... 116 The Turkish-Israeli Connection .................... 119 Black Sea Economic Cooperation .................. 121 Domestic Influences ............................ 122 Prospects for the Future ......................... 125 Contents vii Chapter Six THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE MEDITERRANEAN ...... 127 The Policy Setting .............................. 127 A Tradition of Ambivalence ....................... 130 The Gulf War and Aftermath ...................... 133 Contours of the New Activism ..................... 136 A Forward Strategy Toward Northern Iraq .......... 137 A Strategic Relationship with Israel................ 140 Confrontation and Rapprochement with Syria ....... 144 Friction and Engagement with Iran ............... 147 The Western Context for Turkish Regional Policy ....... 149 Turkey and the Mediterranean .................... 152 Looking Ahead ................................ 155 Chapter Seven TURKEY AND THE UNITED STATES ................ 159 Origins of a Strategic Relationship .................. 160 Gulf War and Aftermath: An Expanded Partnership ..... 165 Turkish Bilateral Interests Today ................... 169 Changing Bilateral Images........................ 178 Looking Ahead ................................ 182 Chapter Eight CONCLUSION ................................ 187 Whither Turkey? ............................... 187 Where Does Turkey Fit?.......................... 189 How will Turkey Act? ............................ 191 What Place in a Globalized World? .................. 195 Implications for Turkey’s Western Partners ........... 196 Bibliography ..................................... 201 About the Authors ................................. 217 SUMMARY As Turkey enters the 21st century, it faces a troubled environment, domestically and internationally. Uncertainties regarding the coun- try’s future and its external policies have increased significantly as a result of Turkey’s own economic crises and political turmoil, trou- bling developments in nearby regions, and challenges further afield. As a consequence, the task of understanding and assessing Turkey’s international role has become more complex and far more difficult. During the Cold War, Turkey acted as a bulwark against the expan- sion of Soviet influence into the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. With the end of the Cold War, Ankara’s policy horizons have expanded and Turkey has become a more assertive and independent actor on the international stage. Where once Turkey primarily looked West, today Turkey is increasingly being pulled East and South as well. As a result, Turkey has been forced to redefine its for- eign and security policy interests and to rethink its international re- lationships. If Turkey were a small state located in Antarctica or the South Sea Is- lands, these changes might matter little. But Turkey stands at the nexus of three areas of increasing