Why We Shouldn’t Worry about Global Warming Thomas Gale Moore IN STITU TE Washington, D.C. Copyright© 1998 by the Cato Institute All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Moore, Thomas Gale. Climate of Fear: Why we shouldn’t worry about global warming/ Thomas Gale Moore ISBN 1-882577-64-7 — ISBN 1-882577-65-5 1. Global Warming. 2. Global Warming—Economic aspects. QC981.8.G56M64 1998 363.738’74—dc21 Cato Institute 1000 Massachusetts Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20001 Acknowledgments I would like to thank my wife, Cassandra Chrones Moore, who read every word several times. She improved the grammar, caught mistakes, pointed out sections that were unclear, and made the work flow more smoothly. Without her careful and expert help, this book would be much less readable. Any remaining inadequacies are my responsibility. A condensed version of Chapter 2 was published as “Why Global Warming Would Be Good for Your” in The Public Interest, Winter 1995. Certain sections of Chapter 3 through 6 appeared first in various issues of World Climate Report. Table of Contents · Cover ..........................................................................................................................i · Title ............................................................................................................................ii · Acknowledgments ................................................................................................ iv · Table of Contents .................................................................................................. v · Introduction .............................................................................................................1 · International Actions........................................................................................4 · Costs versus Costs ............................................................................................6 · 1. The Science Behind Predictions of Climate Change ................................9 · Generally Agreed On Facts...........................................................................10 · Tab. 1-1 GLOBAL SOURCES AND ABSORPTION OF GREENHOUSE GASES........................................................................................................11 · TAB. 1-2 DIRECT GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL FOR 100-YEAR TIME HORIZON.........................................................................................12 · Contentious Issues ..........................................................................................13 · An Unknowable Future..................................................................................14 · Fig. 1-1 GROWTH IN GREENHOUSE GASSES SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION............................................................................................15 · Tab. 1-3 IPCC ASSUMPTIONS...............................................................16 · Historical Records ..........................................................................................17 · Model Uncertainties .......................................................................................18 · Tab. 1-4 IPCC SUMMARY .....................................................................20 · Tab. 1-5 IPCC PREDICTED WARMING FOR 2100 ...............................20 · Weather Effects of Climate Change............................................................21 · 2. Historical Evidence on Climate and Human Well-being ......................23 · Historical Evidence.........................................................................................24 · Measurement of Human Well-being ...........................................................26 · Climate History ...............................................................................................27 · Fig. 2-1 DIFFERENCE IN PERCENTAGE GROWTH RATE OF POPULATION FROM EXPECTED .............................................................34 · Fig. 2-2 LIFE EXPECTANCY AT VARIOUS PERIODS............................35 · Fig. 2-3 AVERAGE HEIGHTS OF ICELANDIC MALES..........................37 · The First Climatic Optimum.........................................................................37 · Cooler, More Varied, and Stormy Times ...................................................43 · The High Middle Ages and Medieval Warmth..........................................46 · Europe.......................................................................................................48 · The Arctic.................................................................................................56 · The Far East.............................................................................................57 · The Americas...........................................................................................59 · The Mini Ice Age............................................................................................60 · Happiness is a Warm Planet..........................................................................67 Table of Contents · 3. Health Effects of Global Warming .....................................................69 · Introduction .....................................................................................................69 · Torrid Summers ..............................................................................................72 · Fig. 3-1 PROPORTION OF WEATHER-RELATED COLD DEATHS TO HEAT -STRESS MORTALITY....................................................................75 · Mosquito-Borne Diseases .............................................................................75 · Fig. 3-2 REPORTED CASES OF MALARIA IN THE UNITED STATES..76 · Fig. 3-3 CLIMATE REPORTED MALARIA CASES IN AFRICA AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD ....................................................................78 · Cholera ..............................................................................................................78 · Fig. 3-4 TEMPERATURE VARIATION FROM NORMAL OFF THE PERUVIAN COAST ....................................................................................81 · Overall Health Effects....................................................................................82 · Seasonal Effects ......................................................................................82 · Climatic Effects.......................................................................................84 · Morbidity..................................................................................................85 · Conclusion .......................................................................................................87 · 4. Weather Benefits and Other Environmental Amenities .......................89 · Human Well-Being.........................................................................................90 · Theory of Amenity Values....................................................................90 · Studies of the Effect on Land Values ..................................................91 · Studies of the Effect on Wages ............................................................92 · Empirical Results....................................................................................93 · Analysis of Results.................................................................................94 · Valuations of Environmental Amenities.....................................................95 · The Value of Biodiversity .............................................................................98 · 5. The Economic Costs (Benefits?) of a Warmer World ........................ 103 · Past Studies................................................................................................... 104 · Department of Transportation Study................................................ 104 · The Environmental Protection Agency Study................................ 105 · Tab. 5-1 ECONOMIC COSTS OF COOLING AND WARMING: DOT STUDY BY RALPH D’ARGE ................................................................. 106 · Tab. 5-2 WILLIAM NORDHAUS'S ESTIMATES OF THE IMPACT OF DOUBLING OF CO2 FOR VARIOUS SECTORS................................... 108 · Nordhaus Study.................................................................................... 108 · Cline Study ........................................................................................... 109 · Tab. 5-3 ANNUAL BENEFITS (+) OR DAMAGES (-) FROM GLOBAL WARMING FOR THE UNITED STATES................................................ 112 Table of Contents · The Effects of Global Warming ................................................................ 113 · Agriculture ............................................................................................ 113 · Forest Loss............................................................................................ 116 · Species extinction ................................................................................ 117 · Sea Level Rise...................................................................................... 118 · Heating and Cooling Expenses ......................................................... 118 · Human Amenities ................................................................................ 119 · Migration............................................................................................... 119 · Mortality...............................................................................................