GLOBAL INSIGHT INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL DIALOGUE a focus on current issues Issue 84 / September 2008 ‘Geopolitical Tsunami’: The Georgia-Russia conflict and the changing balance of forces in the Caucasus Francis Ikome and Lesley Masters Dr Francis Ikome directs HE CAUCASUS HAS been witness to something of a ‘geopolitical tsunami’ over the the IGD’s Multilateral Tcourse of August 2008. Georgia’s attempt to pacify its irredentist region of South Ossetia Analysis programme; and Abkhazia saw a rather muscular reaction from Moscow and blustering rhetoric from the Dr Lesley Masters is a West, particularly America. This has revived the not-too glorious memories of the East-West researcher for the Cold War confrontation that dominated and defined international politics for the greater same programme. part of forty years following the end of the Second World War. Concerns are that these events could herald a new Cold War with the potential to further complicate inter-state relations in an era of perverse unconventional warfare (terrorism). While neither Moscow, Washington, nor Brussels appears to be prepared for a new Cold War, the manner in which they have con- ducted themselves since the events in Georgia suggests elements that could produce a new type of Cold War, even if only by accident. Beyond the risk of a new Cold War and of more immediate consequence, however, are the implications of the fall-out of the conflict over Georgia on the geopolitical balance of forces in the Caucasus and the broader international system. The Georgian conflict provided Moscow with a long-awaited opportunity to vent its frustration against the West for what it perceives as multifaceted provocations and betrayals since the end of the Cold War. The swiftness and near mathematical precision of the Russian deployment following Georgia’s infiltration of South Ossetia seem to suggest that Moscow had been preparing for this moment. On the other hand, America and its western allies’ response point to the fact that even with clear signs of Russia’s growing economic and political influence, they continued to take it for granted. They were, therefore, taken by surprise by Moscow’s firm response towards Georgia and subse- quent refusal to budge over the recognition of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Against this background, this policy brief seeks to examine the dynamics of the conflict Global Insight aims to and its implications on the geopolitical balance of forces in the Caucasus and the broader provide members of the international system. It begins by examining Moscow’s relationship with the West after the policy community with end of the Cold War, focusing on what Russia perceives as provocations and betrayals by concise but trenchant the West; it then proceeds to examine the window of opportunity presented to Moscow by analyses of topical issues. Georgia’s infiltration of Southern Ossetia. This is followed by an analysis of the geostrategic Comments and suggestions fallout of the conflict. It concludes by discussing some implications of the conflict for the are invited. broader international system, on the basis of which it also makes some recommendations. Global Insight 84.indd 1 9/30/08 10:19:53 AM Global Insight no 84 Figure 1: The South Caucasus Region plans to place parts of the US missile defense shield virtually at Moscow’s doorstep in Poland and the Czech Republic, and the recognition of Kosovo as an independent state despite Russian protests. The expansion of NATO and the independence of Kosovo In 1949 the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was established as a collective security arrangement, underwrit- ten by America, and crafted to shield Western Europe from USSR aggression during the Cold War. Following the demise Source: BBC News. of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, expectations were that NATO would be disbanded, particularly as the Russian Federation was seen as a partner of the West. Despite ques- Moscow and the West Post-Cold War relations: tions concerning the identity and purpose of the organisation, a mixture of provocation and betrayal NATO continues to re-interpret its position internationally, assuming the mandate of a global peacekeeper and enforcer Ever since the demise of the former USSR and the end of the which clearly encroaches on the domain of the United Cold War, Russia ceased to be recognized as a great power, Nations. Moscow had been particularly wary of NATO’s new let alone a super-power. Washington, in particular, has only role in a post-Cold War era. These concerns were, however, been prepared to engage Moscow as a junior partner, as a allayed by the West’s promises that NATO would not threaten country that embraces Western values of market democracy Russia’s national interests in any way. In the post-Cold War and that will ungrudgingly accept America’s unilateral leader- spirit of understanding between Moscow and Washington, ship of the global system.1 Despite inclusion into the G8 and both President George W. Bush and Bill Clinton personally the creation of a NATO-Russia Council, there has been little assured the Kremlin that NATO would not encroach into what enthusiasm from the West in drawing Russia into the main Moscow identifies as its sphere of influence. fold. For example Moscow is not part of the G7 of Finance Contrary to these promises, NATO has continued to Ministers, which plays a key role in the multilateral financial expand eastwards towards Russia’s doorstep, in what Moscow institutions and the wider global economy.2 Indeed, from the perceives as both a betrayal and provocation. This has seen outset, Washington has done everything to blunt any Russian the incorporation of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, attempt to revive its former position as a superpower that Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and could pose a challenge to America’s global hegemony.3 As Slovenia into the security organization.6 It is noteworthy that such, America and its European allies have tended to conduct in terms of Russia’s foreign policy, the ‘near-abroad’ or the themselves in a manner that seemed to suggest that Russia Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), is a priority area simply did not exist, or that if it existed, it no longer mattered within which Moscow feels that it reserves the right to pro- and therefore, had no interests that needed to be protected in tect its interests (security, economic, and social).7 Critically, the international system. This attitude fed perceptions within Moscow wants to insure itself against military intimidation, Russian foreign policy circles that the West deliberately sought hence its deep displeasure with the eastward expansion of to marginalize the country and exploit its weakness.4 Acting NATO and its hostility to US plans to build missile defenses from the basis of this perception, Russia’s Foreign Minister in Eastern Europe.8 This sensitivity towards perceived west- Sergie Lavrov, cautioned that ‘[i]nteraction with Russia is pos- ern hostility was bolstered by the involvement of the US and sible only on the basis of full equality, respect for the security Europe in re-building the armaments and military capabilities interests of each other, and mutual benefit.’5 Nevertheless, the of new NATO members, including Georgia, which according West has continued to take actions that in the ‘hey days’ of to the Russian Foreign Ministry, is ‘an overt invitation to new the Cold War would have qualified as unacceptable provo- reckless ventures.’9 For Georgia’s former Communist leader, cation. This has included the eastward expansion of NATO, Eduard Shevardnadze, ‘the West’s erection of radars in Czech 2 Global Insight 84.indd 2 9/30/08 10:19:53 AM The Georgia-Russia conflict Republic and planned missiles shields in Poland is a betrayal de Hoop Scheffer, has continued to promote the idea of of the consensus (friendship) between the West and the East Georgia’s future membership of the organization. At the same that facilitated the end of the Cold War. If the West is still time, the US proceeded to block an emergency NATO-Russia friends with Russia, then it really does not need these defense Council meeting on the conflict in South Ossetia. Russia’s per- systems.’10 manent representative to the Organization was particularly The former states of the Soviet Union are increasingly disgruntled when it emerged that the Georgian ambassador alarmed by the re-emergence of a politically, economically had been given the opportunity to address NATO while ‘they and militarily powerful Russia. According to Ivanenko they weren’t ready to meet with their Russian partner, to hear the ‘see a newly confident Russia as a historical threat to be con- questions I have for our American colleagues about their tained at the expense of their own prosperity.’11 Russia’s efforts share of the responsibility for the preparation of the blood- to project its growing power, particularly through the leverage bath in South Ossetia. This is unacceptable’.17 bestowed by its abundant oil and gas resources, have not Russia’s growing resentment towards the West, following endeared it to its immediate neighbours. If anything, it has NATO’s eastward encroachment, was compounded by the ‘stoked anxiety and driven these countries to seek alliances decision to recognize Kosovo’s independence. In February and take other steps to protect themselves from Russian 2008, Kosovo declared its independence against the wishes pressure.’12 The pro-West independent states seem to believe of both Serbia and Russia. Indeed, Putin warned that ‘to sup- that security against possible Russian aggression is attainable port the unilateral independence of Kosovo is wrong both through their membership of NATO.