THE FUND FOR PEACE PARTNERSHIP INITIATI VES IN THE NIGER DELTA N I G E R D E L T A PARTNERSHIP INITIATIVE Renewed Potential for Violence: Bayelsa Gubernatorial Elections Briefing: October 2015 Transition of gubernatorial power has by the PDP, and contributed to a stream of Bayelsa State, Nigeria historically been fraught with violence in defections to APC. One leading defector Bayelsa. In 2012, for instance, political includes former Governor Timipre Sylva, tensions were high, with reported whose tenure was terminated by the explosions at party secretariats, cultist Supreme Court two months prior to the violence targeting political aspirants, a 2012 elections. Thus, there are indications reported assassination attempt, that political thugs and ex-militants may be kidnappings, and general political thuggery. less unified than usual in their support for a Now, in 2015, the Independent National single candidate or political party. Both Electoral Commission (INEC) has fixed 5th leading contenders, incumbent PDP December 2015 for the Bayelsa State Governor Seriake Dickson and APC gubernatorial elections, and there are signs candidate Timipre Sylva, are ethnically Ijaw that conflict issues are emerging once again. (of the Izon subgroup). However, the fault lines could take on a regional dimension, as Background Sylva is from the Nembe axis in the South, while Dickson is from the northern Sagbama axis. Moreover, despite the fact While the March 2015 presidential elections that both candidates are Ijaw, ethnic were relatively peaceful in Bayelsa, the next sentiments are being politicized inasmuch challenge will be how to maintain peace and as APC is being painted by some as security, as the People’s Democratic Party This briefing summarizes some of the key anathema to the Ijaw cause. (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress drivers of conflict in Bayelsa since 2009, and (APC) warm up for an election that is likely the trends in incidents which have the Fallout from 2015 Presidential Elections to be keenly contested. In many ways, the potential to renew the political violence in results of the gubernatorial elections will be the lead up to the Gubernatorial elections more directly significant for local Former President Goodluck Jonathan’s loss scheduled for December 3rd 2015. It then constituents and ethno-political interests in the March 2015 elections has deepened provides recommendations for key stake- than the presidential contest, especially political hostilities among the major political holder groups to mitigate the risks of given the prominent role that political stalwarts in the Niger Delta, especially election violence. patronage plays in the state with political between the PDP and APC in Rivers and leaders rewarding their supporters with Bayelsa States. privileged positions in government Scope and Limitations: We recognize that the establishments and lucrative government During the 2015 general election, the data collected in this project is not an contracts. Bayelsa has always been a PDP sentiment was widely held in the South- exhaustive tally of all incidents of violence. state, but the emergence of the APC as the South that APC represented Nigeria’s However, to the extent that data are repre- ruling party at the federal level has reduced Western and Northern political blocs, sentative of the patterns and trends, findings the 16 year-long popular support enjoyed leaving the many in the Niger Delta, and are indicated in the report. OCTOBER 2015: BAYELSA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION VIOLENCE BRIEFING Upcoming Bayelsa Gubernatorial Elections Bayelsa in particular, disappointed with the Implications for Peace and Security Bayelsa Event Timeline results. Some notable ex-militant generals have sought to inflame those grievances. 2009 Unlike previous elections in the state, this Asari Dokubo in an interview with PM News election seems to be a real contest between Amnesty Programme announced for demo- on September 8, 2015 stated: bilization of militants in Niger Delta the ruling PDP and the opposition APC, which has raised the stakes considerably. ”...the Ijaw nation will not allow Governor Henry 2009-2011 The emergence of the APC party flag bearer, Seriake Dickson and former President Goodluck Chief Timipre Sylva (a former Governor of Violence between MEND and security forces in Bayelsa, with attacks on oil infra- Jonathan to be disgraced by losing the December 5 the state from 2008 to 2012 under the structure resulting in fatalities in Yenagoa, gubernatorial election to the main opposition party in platform of the PDP), is thought to be highly Nembe, Ijaw South and Brass the state, All Progressives Congress, APC.” significant as he was one of the founding Former MEND leader alleges that oil spills members of the PDP in Bayelsa, and has in Ijaw South have contributed to the been able to garner a large support base in deaths of as many as 30 children, as re- Dokubo’s statement went further to the state of erstwhile PDP supporters. ported in the Daily Trust. reinforce the significance of the December Allegedly, he also has the support of various 5, 2015 elections within the context of the ex-militant generals, many of whom enjoyed 2012 Ijaw nation and pride: his patronage during his tenure as Governor Election related violence including political under the PDP and not a few of whom hail kidnappings and bombings during the “We Ijaws don’t run away from our enemies. gubernatorial election period from his LGA, Nembe. Since 2010, former Jonathan did a lot for all those who have turned militant generals, such as these, have been Governor Timipre Sylva’s tenure is termi- nated by Supreme Court on January 27 against us. Nobody, wherever he is, can move the Ijaw seen to play a more involved role in nation. We’ve never been conquered, the British determining who emerges in the key PDP candidate Henry Dickson is elected as Governor on February 14 political positions in the state. knows this fact. This fight is beyond Henry Seriake Dickson, it is beyond you and me, it is for all. He will 2013 Meanwhile, in September 2015, after Thousands of cult group members meet never be disgraced on December 5. They have months of speculation, former President boasted that they have control of the Army, INEC, with political leaders to renounce criminali- Goodluck Jonathan threw his weight behind ty on June 5 Police, Navy and SSS. But we will meet in the Governor Seriake Dickson of the ruling PDP battlefield on Election Day.” in a public show of support and 2014 camaraderie. This public support helped to Former Governor Sylva defects from PDP to close the ranks of disgruntled politicians APC who had previously expressed discontent Election related violence increases lead up over what they reportedly perceived as the to 2015 Presidential race high handedness of the Dickson administration. 2015 Spikes of violence including, piracy, abduc- Since June 2015, there has been increased tions, shootings, and cultist recruitment by insecurity in the state, including abductions political groups. and killings, prompting the state Gunmen attack JTF base in Nembe killing government to declare in July after a several in August. security meeting that they had uncovered Ex-Militant General Ogunboss declares ex- plans by the opposition to recruit militants are not for hire by politicians for unrepentant cultists to unleash mayhem. in gubernatorial run-up Shortly afterwards, on August 7, 2015, Former President Goodluck Jonathan and unknown gun men attacked a Joint Task his wife endorse Governor Dickson at the launch of his re-election campaign on Force (JTF) military base in Nembe, killing September 8 four soldiers and a mobile policeman Ex-Militant Asari Dokubo links support for (MOPOL) in the process. In the midst of PDP in the Gubernatorial elections with the these incidents, both political parties have wider Ijaw cause as reported in PM News. been locked in a blame game concerning PIND NDPI 2 THE FUND FOR PEACE OCTOBER 2015: BAYELSA GUBERNATORIAL ELECTION VIOLENCE BRIEFING who is responsible for these attacks. Quarterly Reported Fatalities due to Violence in Bayelsa Bayelsa State was pivotal during the pre- 40 Amnesty armed struggle in the Niger Delta region. Presently, the state boasts of over 35 30 ex-militant generals that had hitherto 30 operated within its territories. In the past, ex -militant generals have not shied away from 25 using threats to give their preferred 20 candidates an advantage in the political 15 race, as reported recently in a January 25, 2015 Daily Trust article, and some have 10 played key roles in the election of particular 5 candidates. This situation has raised fears concerning the roles the ex-militant 0 generals and their ‘boys’ would play as it concerns peace and security during the 2015 gubernatorial elections. However, in an August 23, 2015 interview with the Trend shows quarterly fatalities in Bayelsa related to violence has been declining since the Amnesty Program in 2009. Peaks have Sahara Reporters, prominent ex-militant, continued over the past six years, however, with reported fatalities increasing recently in the lead up to the Presidential elections General Ogunboss declared that the ex- during 2014 and 2015 . Data source: Nigeria Watch www.nigeriawatch.org militant leaders and youths from the existing eight Local Government Councils of Kolokuma/Opokuma Southern Ijaw the State were not for hire to politicians Intra-Communal Tensions Over Pipeline Attacks by Sea Pirates plotting to perpetuate violence ahead of Surveillance Contracts Clash Between Cult Groups the December Governorship election. Inter-Communal Tensions Inter-Party Hate Speech and Violence Nevertheless, the fact they have been ready Destruction of Campaign Materials Restive Youths tools in the hands of politicians in the past During Federal Election gives enough room for concern about the Abduction (including that of an oil Intra-Party Tensions roles they could play in the coming worker and a deputy paramount ruler, and three women) elections.