A F 99 r ? FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS SPECIAL CHAPTERS In addition to the usual review of the recent world food and agriculture situation, each issue of this report from 1957 has included one or more special studies of problems of longer term interest. Special chapters in earlier issues have covered the following subjects: Factors influencing the trend of food consumption Postwar changes in some institutional factors affecting agriculture Food and agricultural developments in Africa south of the Sahara The growth of forest industries and their impact on the world's forests Agricultural incomes and levels of living in countries at different stages of economic development Some general problems of agricultural development inless developed countries in the light of postwar experience Programing for agricultural development Land reform and institutional change Agricultural exetension, education and research in Africa, Asia and Latin America The role of forest industries in the attack on economic underdevelopment The livestock industry in less developed countries Basic factors affecting the growth of productivity in agriculture Fertilizer use: spearhead of agricultural development Protein nutrition: needs and prospects Synthetics and their effects on international trade Agriculture and industrialization Rice in the world food economy Incentives and disincentives for farmers in developing countries The management of fishery resou. rces Raising agricultural productivity in developing countries through techno- logical improvement Improved storage and its contribution to world food supplies Agricultural marketing improvement programmes: some lessons from recent experience Modernization of institutions to promote development Agriculture at the threshold of the Second Development Decade Water pollution and its effects on living aquatic resources and fisheries Education and training for development Accelerating agricultural research in the developing countries Agricultural employment in developing countries STATE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 1974 WORLD REVIEW REVIEW BY REGIONS POPULATION, FOOD SUPPLY AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 1975 The statistical material in this publication has been prepared from the information available to FAO up to 1 November 1974 The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organizatiotz of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimi- tation of its frontiers or boundaries. © FAO 1975 Printed in Italy CONTENTS Foreword VII FISHERIES 33 Production and trade 33 1.World review Policies and other issues 35 Outlook 36 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION 2 FORESTRY 38 Production1973 2 Production1974 7 Production andtrade 38 The influence of weather and climate on food Forest policies 41 production 11 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCES AND SPECIAL AGRICULTURAL TRADE 16 SESSION 43 Trade in1973 16 World Food Conference 43 Trade outlook for 1974/75 18 Sixth Special Session of the United Nations General Assembly 46 World Population Conference 47 STOCKS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 20 Conference on the Law of the Sea 48 CONSUMER FOOD PRICES 22 2.Review by regions 51 DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE 23 WESTERN EUROPE 51 The flow of aid 23 Agricultural policies and problems 51 Terms of assistance 24 Prices 1974/75 53 Repayment burden 25 The World Bank Group and the financing ofagriculture 25 EASTERN EUROPE AND THE U.S S R 54 Regional development banks and new sources of aid 25 Investment and current inputs 54 Food aid 27 Farm incomes, prices and policies 55 Plans and policies 56 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION REQUISITES .... 28 NORTH AMERICA 57 The energycrisis 28 Fertilizers 30 Agricultural prices and farm incomes 57 Pesticides 32 Problems, policies and programmes 58 OCEANIA 63 Food availability 104 Distribution of food by income and social Agricultural prices and farm incomes 63 group 106 Problems, policies and programmes 63 Other indicators of the incidence of food defi- ciency 107 The decline in breast-feeding 109 LATIN AMERICA 65 Other nutritional deficiencies 110 Causes of inadequate nutrition 110 Development plans and policies 65 Integrated rural development 69 Regional economic integration 72 THE DEMAND FOR FOOD II 1 Patterns of food expenditure FAR EAST 73 Food in family expenditure 111 Otherfactorsinfluencinglong-termfood Development plans and policies 73 demand 114 Technological innovation anditspolicy im- plications 76 79 Regional economic cooperation THE FOOD PROBLEM OF THE FUTURE 116 China 80 Food demand projections 116 Extrapolated food production trends 119 Japan 81 The demand/production balance 121 Supplementaryneedstomeetnutritional standards 124 NEAR EAST 82 Production fluctuations 125 Outlook for rural poverty 126 Development plans and policies 82 Methodologicalnote 127 Country perspective studies 84 AFRICA 88 POSSIBILITIES FOR INCREASING PRODUCTION... 130 Development plans and policies 88 Agricultural inputs 130 Regional economic integration 90 Water and land resources 132 Livestock 132 Fisheries 134 Post-harvest losses 135 3.Population, food supply and agricultural Incentives and services 135 development 93 Mobilizing the rural population 136 POPULATION AND FOOD SUPPLY 93 MAJOR POLICY IMPLICATIONS 136 Foodproduction 93 Production resources 96 Rural institutions and services 98 ANNEX TO CHAPTER 3 139 Development assistance 100 World trade in food 100 DIMENSIONS AND CAUSES OF HUNGER AND MAL- BIBLIOGRAPHY TO CHAPTER 3 154 NUTRITION 103 Assessment of undernutrition and malnutri- tion 103 Annex tables 155 vi FOREWORD As I reminded the World Food Conference when I addressed it on 5 November, it is 110W almost thirty years since John Boyd-Orr, the first Director-General of FAO, evoked the idea of "a great world food scheme, which will bring freedom from want of food to all men." Yet the governments of the day were unable to rise to this challenge, so that now, a whole generation later, the world food problem ig still unsolved and is worsening, and there are more people in want of food than at any time since then. For the third consecutive year the world food and agricultural situation must be viewed with grave concern.During 122uch of 1974 there were high hopes that this year would bring the bountiful harvests so badly needed for the world to beghz to emerge from the food crisis that started with the widespread bad weather and poor crops of 1972.Although there was a substantial recovery in production in 1973, very large harvests were needed in 1974 if a begin- ning was to be made in returning to any reasonable degree of security in world food supplies. It is llOW clear that these hopes were not realized in 1974.In many countries the expan- sion ill acreage and other special efforts ¡nade to increase production were defeated by the weather. Any easing of the world food situation has thus been put offfor at least another year. Although bad weather was much less widespread in 1974 than in 1972, it affected produc- tion with particular severity in two vitally important regions of the world: North America, the largest food exporter, and the Far East, where the majority of the world's malnourished people are to be found.The final outcome of the cereal crops in son2e parts of the Far East is still unknown, but it is already certain that in both of these regions there has been a drop in cereal production and in total food and agricultural production. World cereal production thus declined in 1974 for the second time in three years.FAO's early estimates indicate a fall of between 40 and 50 million tons.The gravity of this large drop in production, superimposed on the already precarious situation, is readily apparent when it is recalled that an increase of more than 20 million tons of cereals is needed merely to keep ul»vith the annual growth of population at present average consuinptionlevels.It is /IOW likely that the total carry-over stocks of cereals (outside Chinaand the U.S.S.R., for which there is as yet no information) will full below 100 million tons by mid-1975.This would be less than half their 1970 volume and only 11 % of world consumption, as compared with the 17-18 % estimated by FAO to be the minimum required for world food security. Any increase in total world food and agricultural production in 1974 is likely to have been very small.If 1974 production does turn out to have matched the 1973 kvel, this will mainly be the result of the unusually large upsurge in livestock slaughterings, especially, in western Europe, and will thus bring no relief to the countries where food shortages are most critical. What is more, the big increase in livestocic production reflects very serious difficulties in this sector and has benefited neither producers nor consumers. Side by side with the continued general shortage of food, especially of staple cereals, the situation is critical for several of the main inputs essential for food production.The sYliortage and high price of chemical fertilizers show no sign of abating .for some time to come.Some important pesticides are running short, and this niay soon become a serious problem. A number of developing countries face shortages of fuel and power for irrigation pumping and other essential agricultural purposes. In the face of these dual shortages of food and the means of producing it, there is an obvious need for urgent, immediate action if widespread starvation is to be avoided. First, it is necessary to ensure an equitable distribution of the exportable foodsupplies that are available until next year's harvests begin to come in, with special attention toneeds of the most seriously affected countries, some of which cannot be fully known until later.To this end, I have been engaged in special consultations with the main exporting and importing countries. vii Second, in order to obtain the biggest possible harvests in 1975, it is necessary to secure a balanced distribution of the scarce means of production as well.Here FAO's International Fertilizer Supply Scheme is of particular importance.