Table of Contents Full Document (including Appendices) available online at: http://www.pgplanning.org/Resources/Publications/Retail_Market_Analysis.htm Introduction and Key Findings................................................................................................ 1 Chapter 1: Retail Market and Locational Analysis Goals and Objectives ................................................................................................................. 5 Key Findings ......................................................................................................................................... 5 National Retail Trends .......................................................................................................................... 7 Retail Inventory Analysis ................................................................................................................... 10 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 10 Retail Center Typology ................................................................................................................ 11 Tenant Mix .................................................................................................................................... 13 Location Criteria and Examples ................................................................................................. 13 Retail Center Age/Year Built .................................................................................................... 13 Level of Repair/Reinvestment ..................................................................................................... 15 Visibility and Local Access ......................................................................................................... 16 Shopping Centers by Trade Areas.................................................................................................... 16 Retail Centers by Local and Regional Trade Area .................................................................... 19 Distribution by Center Physical Quality ................................................................................... 20 Distribution by Tenant Level .................................................................................................... 21 Unique Retail Locations ..................................................................................................................... 24 Main Street Districts .................................................................................................................... 24 Mixed-Use Retail Districts ........................................................................................................... 25 Goals and Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 27 Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................... 27 Competitive Advantages .................................................................................................................... 31 Economic Assessment and Current Land Use ............................................................................... 31 Economic and Demographic Trends ......................................................................................... 31 Employment Growth .................................................................................................................... 32 Household Growth ....................................................................................................................... 35 Regional Household Comparison .............................................................................................. 36 Current Land Use and Retail Fundamentals ............................................................................. 36 Retail Spending in the County .................................................................................................... 39 Spending Power, Competitive Analysis, and Supportable Retail ................................................. 39 Sources of Demand and Spending per Group .......................................................................... 40 Demand by Consumer Source .................................................................................................... 43 Retail Demand by Trade Areas ................................................................................................... 44 Methodology ............................................................................................................................ 45 Analysis of Supply and Demand within Trade Areas .............................................................. 46 Page ii Table of Contents Goals and Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 51 Key Findings ....................................................................................................................................... 51 Retail Consumer Segmentation ........................................................................................................ 52 Household Consumer Tiers ........................................................................................................ 52 Regional Distribution ............................................................................................................... 54 Location Comparison ............................................................................................................... 55 Employee Consumer Segment ................................................................................................... 62 Visitor Consumer Segment ......................................................................................................... 63 Retail Opportunity .............................................................................................................................. 64 Critical Assumptions ..............................................................................................................67 General Limiting Conditions ..................................................................................................68 Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................69 Full Document (including Appendices) available online at: http://www.pgplanning.org/Resources/Publications/Retail_Market_Analysis.htm Online Appendices include: Appendix A – Other Qualitative Performance Metrics Appendix B – U.S. Shopping-Center Classification and Characteristics Appendix C – ESRI Tapestry Segmentation Appendix D – Analysis Page iii Introduction and Key Findings The challenge for retail in Prince George’s County pertains to quality more so than quantity. On the surface, the County is not significantly over-retailed relative to the national or regional average retail square feet (SF) per person, but the average productivity (sales per square foot) of that retail space is less than in other comparable counties in the Washington-Baltimore region. New retail centers built since 2006 have demonstrated strong market absorption, but are often cannibalizing the tenants of older shopping centers which show negative net absorption during the same time period. This creates an environment where lower quality tenants can over achieve and locate in better space than they typically would occupy. Local-serving retail centers in Prince George’s County display this phenomenon most often: many community centers contain tenants that would be more appropriately located in neighborhood centers, and neighborhood centers contain tenants that would be more appropriate for unanchored convenience/in-line retail. At an aggregate level, minimal household expenditure potential is leaking outside of the County. However, aggregate spending reflects total dollars spent – not necessarily whose dollars are spent and where. Based on the composition of the County’s retail, the County likely attracts outside demand in support of its low end retail and loses some resident spending to locations outside the county with higher quality retail. Locations where this dynamic likely occurs are discussed in Chapter 2. When accounting for other primary sources of demand such as visitors and employees, the gap between demand potential and realized spending in the County is greater. Reported retail sales data indicates that $7.2 billion in spending occurs in Prince George’s County on retail goods and food services, representing the majority of purchases made at shopping centers and retail stores. RCLCO calculates nearly $8.6 billion of retail demand potential available to Prince George’s County – a spending gap of $1.4 billion or approximately 20 percent of current retail expenditures. Translating that demand into square feet indicates that Prince George’s County can support an estimated total of 20.1 million square feet of high-performing retail space (excluding gas stations and other auto-related uses). The current inventory of retail in the County includes 241 shopping centers comprised of approximately 26.4 million square feet of retail space (for shopping centers over 10,000 SF). RCLCO evaluated each retail center over 10,000 SF on the qualitative factors that influence its performance