OFFICIAL ESSEX COUNTY FIRE & RESCUE SERVICE STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT OF RISK 2019 A SAFER ESSEX Eighth Edition Version 10.1 20 August 2019 OFFICIAL Contents DISTRIBUTION ........................................................................................................................................ 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 6 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................................................... 8 AIM 10 OBJECTIVES .......................................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1: RISK – GENERAL ................................................................................................................. 12 1.1 THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT OF RISK ....................................................................................... 12 1.2 NATIONAL SECURITY RTISK ASSESSMENT 2019 ............................................................................. 14 1.3. RISK MANAGEMENT ....................................................................................................................... 14 1.4 INTEGRATED RISK MANAGEMENT PLANNING GUIDANCE ............................................................ 14 1.5 STRATEGIC RISKS ............................................................................................................................ 15 1.6 OPERATIONAL RISK GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRE & RESCUE SERVICE ................................................ 15 1.7. POPULATION DATA ........................................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER 2: BASE CASE ......................................................................................................................... 19 2.1 GENERAL STATISTICS ...................................................................................................................... 19 2.2 ACCIDENTAL DWELLING FIRES ...................................................................................................... 25 CHAPTER 3: PEOPLE – DEMOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 26 3.1 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 26 3.2 POPULATION .................................................................................................................................. 26 3.3 DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES – HOMES & SPACES ........................................................................ 27 3.4 POPULATION AGEING .................................................................................................................... 28 3.6 THE STRUCTURE OF ESSEX COMMUNITIES BY OUTPUT AREA CLASSIFICATION (OAC) ................. 31 3.7 RISK SPECTRUM .............................................................................................................................. 32 3.8 COMMENTARY ............................................................................................................................... 32 3.9 LIKELIHOOD .................................................................................................................................... 33 3.10 IMPACT ........................................................................................................................................... 33 CHAPTER 4: PREVENTION AND PROTECTION ......................................................................................... 34 4.1 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 34 4.2 RISK PROFILING .............................................................................................................................. 34 4.3 VULNERABLE PERSONS .................................................................................................................. 37 4.4 CRIMINAL ACTIVITY - HUMAN TRAFFICKING/MODERN DAY SLAVERY .......................................... 39 4.5 CRIMINAL ACTIVITY - GANGS AND YOUTH VIOLENCE IN ESSEX .................................................... 39 CHAPTER 5: ROAD, SEA & AIR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................... 42 5.1 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 42 5.2 COMMUTING BEHAVIOURS ........................................................................................................... 42 5.3 ROAD TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE............................................................................................ 43 5.4 ROAD TRAFFIC COLLISIONS IN ESSEX ............................................................................................. 49 5.5 ROAD PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEMS ............................................................................................. 51 5.6 RAIL TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE .............................................................................................. 51 5.7 PORTS & MARITIME INFRASTRUCTURE ......................................................................................... 56 5.8 AIR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ................................................................................................ 61 5.9 RISK SPECTRUM .............................................................................................................................. 63 5.10 LIKELIHOOD .................................................................................................................................... 66 5.11 IMPACT ........................................................................................................................................... 69 CHAPTER 6: INDUSTRIAL, UTILITY AND OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE .......................................................... 77 6.1 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 77 6.2 THE CONTROL OF MAJOR ACCIDENT HAZARDS REGULATIONS 2015 ............................................ 78 6.3 RADIATION (EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS & PUBLIC INFORMATION) REGULATIONS 2001 ......... 84 6.4 UTILITIES ........................................................................................................................................ 84 6.5 OTHER INFRASTRUCTURE .............................................................................................................. 89 6.6 RISK SPECTRUM .............................................................................................................................. 92 2 OFFICIAL 6.7 LIKELIHOOD .................................................................................................................................... 92 6.8 IMPACT ........................................................................................................................................... 93 CHAPTER 7: OUR ENVIRONMENT .......................................................................................................... 96 7.1 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................... 96 7.2 THE ESSEX COASTLINE AND RIVER SYSTEM ................................................................................... 96 7.3 WATER MANAGEMENT IN ESSEX – WATER AUTHORITIES ............................................................ 98 7.4 WATER MANAGEMENT IN ESSEX – STORAGE & DISTRIBUTION .................................................... 98 7.5 FLOOD TYPES ................................................................................................................................ 101 7.6 OPERATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT – GENERAL ..................................................................... 101 7.7 WATER RESCUE & FLOODING ...................................................................................................... 102 7.8 CLIMATE CHANGE ........................................................................................................................ 103 7.9 LANDFILL SITES ............................................................................................................................. 104 7.10 TIMBER STORAGE ......................................................................................................................... 105 7.11 ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION ..................................................................................................... 105 7.12 RISK SPECTRUM ............................................................................................................................ 106 7.13 LIKELIHOOD .................................................................................................................................. 106 7.14 IMPACT ......................................................................................................................................... 106 CHAPTER 8: HUMAN & ANIMAL HEALTH ............................................................................................. 116 8.1 OVERVIEW ...................................................................................................................................