Utilization of Real-Time Social Media Data in Severe Weather Events Evaluating the Prospects of Social Media Data Use for Severe Weather Forecasting, Communication, and Post-Event Assessments FINAL REPORT March 2015 Carol L. Silva, Principal Investigator Joseph Ripberger, Research Scientist Hank C. Jenkins-Smith, Co-Principal Investigator Jack Friedman, Research Scientist Paul Spicer, Co-Principal Investigator Peter J. Lamb, Co-Principal Investigator The University of Oklahoma AWARD #: NA12OAR4590120 Acknowledgements The authors wish to express appreciation to the following individuals whose support and research assistance made this project possible. Matthew Henderson, OU Center for Risk and Crisis Management Deputy Director for IT Development and Design Kerry Herron, OU Center for Risk and Crisis Management Research Scientist Nina Carlson, OU Center for Risk and Crisis Management Deputy Director for Operations Chloe Magee, OU Center for Risk and Crisis Management Undergraduate Research Fellow Wesley Wehde, OU Center for Risk and Crisis Management Undergraduate Research Fellow Hayley Scott, OU Center for Risk and Crisis Management Undergraduate Research Fellow Harold Brooks, National Severe Storms Laboratory Senior Research Scientist Makenzie Krocak, Iowa State University Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholar Annelise Russell, University of Texas Graduate Research Assistant Contents 1. Introduction and Executive Summary ......................................................................... 7 2. The Evolution of Reception, Reliance, and Trust: Public Usage of Information from Social Media About Severe Weather ...................................... 14 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 14 2.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 16 Reception ........................................................................................................................................ 16 Reliance ............................................................................................................................................ 17 Trust ....................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 20 3. Defining the User Base: Who Uses Social Media to Collect Information About Severe Weather? .............................................................................................................. 22 3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 22 3.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 22 3.3 Methods ............................................................................................................................. 22 3.4 Measures ........................................................................................................................... 23 Reception ........................................................................................................................................ 23 Reliance ............................................................................................................................................ 24 Trust ....................................................................................................................................................... 25 Demographic Attributes ........................................................................................................ 26 3.5 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 27 3.6 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 30 4. Context for and Everyday Use of Social Media Among Forecasters in Warning Forecast Offices .............................................................................................. 31 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 31 4.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 31 4.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 32 Forecaster Perceptions of the Public’s Understanding of Weather and Weather Science ............................................................................................................. 32 Usage of/Beliefs About Social Media in WFOs ....................................................... 34 4.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 39 5. Skepticism Towards and Resistance to Social Media in Warning Forecast Offices .................................................................................................................................. 41 5.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 41 5.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 41 5.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 41 General Skepticism About Adoption of Social Media ...................................... 43 Skepticism About Weather Reports Submitted Through Social Media . 43 Skepticism, “Healthy Skepticism,” and Combating Skepticism .................. 47 5.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 49 6. Searching for a Signal in the Noise: A Temporal Comparison of Social Media and Severe Weather Activity ....................................................................................... 50 6.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 50 6.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 50 6.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 53 6.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 55 7. Close Up (Part I): Twitter Users Before, During, and After the 2013 Newcastle-Moore-South Oklahoma City Tornado ................................................ 57 7.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 57 7.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 57 7.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 60 7.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 63 8. Close Up (Part II): The Location of Twitter Users Before, During, and After the 2013 Newcastle-Moore-South Oklahoma City Tornado .............................. 64 8.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 64 8.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 64 8.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 66 8.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 70 9. Close Up (Part III): The Evolution of Message Content Before, During, and After the 2013 Newcastle-Moore-South Oklahoma City Tornado ................... 71 9.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 71 9.2 Data ..................................................................................................................................... 71 9.3 Findings ............................................................................................................................. 73 9.4 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 78 10. Close Up (Part IV): The Evolution of Message Quality Before, During, and After the 2013 Newcastle-Moore-South Oklahoma City Tornado ................... 79 10.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................