The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV ENERGY COOPERATION IN NEA: RUSSIA-JAPAN PERSPECTIVES B. Saneev, Energy Systems Institute, SB of RAS, Irkutsk Speech at the 3d Russia-Japan dialogue “New prerequisites and economic conditions for energy cooperation in Northeast Asia in the Russian Far East” May 13, 2010, Khabarovsk 1. State of the art and main indices of the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) 2. Eastern vector of Russia’s energy policy (basic concepts) 3. Russia-Japan studies on energy cooperation problems between Russia and NEA countries 4. Prospects and conditions for development of mutually beneficial international energy cooperation between Russia and NEA countries 5. Conclusions ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV STATE OF THE ART AND MAIN INDICES OF THE RUSSIAN FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX 2 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV ROLE OF FUEL AND ENERGY COMPLEX IN THE ECONOMY OF RUSSIA Fuel and energy complex share, % Indices Years 1999 2000 2005 2008 IdIndust tilrial pro ducti on vol ume 23. 1 29. 5 31. 5 31. 3 Tax proceeds to the federal budget 36.0 40.0 57.9 48.3 Export 52.0 52.6 63.9 68.1 Investments in fixed assets 24.0 25.7 28.4 28.3 3 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV RUSSIA’S ROLE IN ENSURING GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY • Russia concentrates 18% of the world proved coal reserves, 27% of the world proved natural gas reserves and 7% of the world proved oil reserves • Russia produces (as of 2008): • Electricity - 1036 billion kW (5%) - Coal - 326 million t (5%) - Oil - 488 million t (12%) - Natural gas - 602 billion m3 (()20%) ( %) – of the world production • Russia is the largest exporter of fuel and energy products 4 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV EXPORT OF RUSSIAN FUEL AND ENERGY RESOURCES (2008) Coal - 100 million t Electricity - 21 billion kWh Natural gggas - 195 billion m33 O il Oil - 243 million t Export to NEA countries (2006) Coal, total 16.4 million t including: Japan 12.3 million t Republic of Korea 4.1 million t Oil (China) 14 million t 5 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV EASTERN VECTOR OF RUSSIA’S ENERGY POLICY (BASIC CONCEPTS) 6 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV EASTERN VECTOR OF RUSSIA’S ENERGY POLICY • National interests of Russia require intensification of its mutually beneficial cooperation with Japan, China, Korea and other countries in Northeast Asia • Creation of new energy centers in East Siberia and the Far East will increase energy security of Russia, restore and strengthen broken fuel and energy ties between the regions and solve many important federal, interregional and regional problems • Fast and large-scale developpgment of energyy sectors in these re gions and penetration to the energy markets in Japan, China, Korea and other countries of Northeast Asia should be considered as a primary means of timely ensuring the appropriate positions of Russia in this strategically important region of the world • Creation in the East of Russia and in Northeast Asia of a developed energy infrastructure in the form of interstate gas-, oil pipelines and transmission lines will decrease the cost of energy carriers, enhance reliability of energy and fuel supply to consumers in different countries and make easier the solution of environmental problems 7 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV EASTERN ENERGY POLICY AS AN INSTRUMENT FOR SOLVING URGENT PROBLEMS IN RUSSIA Eastern energy policy of Russia, as part of Eastern economic policy, Is not an end in itself, but an instrument for solving many principally important problems of federal, interregional and regional levels General problems Energy problems 1. Social – increase of comfort, style, quality of people’s life in the eastern regions of Russia 1. Improvement of adaptability and reliability of energy and fuel supply to consumers 2. Political – consolidation and integration of the RF entities, strengthening the unity of the economic 2 Increase of energy security of the country and and energy space of RF regions 3. Geopolitical – reinforcement of Russia’s positions in 3. Perfection of territorial and production structure the world economic system, in the community of of the fuel and energy complex of the country APR, Central and Northeast Asia countries and particularly its eastern regions 4. Economic – enhancement of the efficiency of 4. Increase of environmental security of the functioning and competitiveness of the economy in energy sector the East of Russia, increase of provision with resources and accessibility to the remote areas of 5. Formation of transport and energy the country, creation of conditions for attraction of infrastructure in Russia’s East – oil and gas foreign investments and advanced technologies to Russia pipeline systems, transmission lines– and creation of common transport and energy space in Russia ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV RUSSIA-JAPAN STUDIES ON THE PROBLEMS OF ENERGY COOPERATION BETWEEN RUSSIAN AND NEA COUNTRIES 9 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV MASTER PLAN OF ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN EAST SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST TILL 2010-2015 TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EXPORT O F RU SSIA’S ENERG Y RESO URC ES TO THE APR COUNTRIES From Russia: PtiiParticipant s of fth the proj ect From Japan: •• Energy Research Institute, RASRAS,, Moscow •• Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo •• Siberian Energy Institute, SB of RAS,,, Irkutsk STAGESTAGE 11 Main parts of the project STAGE 2STAGE 2 (1993(1993--1994)1994) (1994(1994--1995)1995) • Development of a comprehensive plan: – regional fuel and energy mixes • Comprehensive study of the current state – formation of a portfolio of investment and ppprospects for development: projects, including inter -country projects – energy consumption and energy saving – financial and economic assessment of – resources investment projects – Asian energy market – formation of measures and initiatives to facilitate implementation of the projects 10 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV CONSIDERED INVESTMENT PROJECTS AND THEIR NUMBER PRODUCTION EXPORT HV PRODUCTION OF: MAIN AND EXPORT OF: TRANSMISSION • electric energy - 5 PIPELINES: • oil - 8 LINES - 3 • gas - 5 • oil pipelines - 3 • coal - 5 • gas pipelines - 3 Total – 32, including: •• Export gas pipeline East Siberia – China with a capacity of 30 blneary m33/ ear/y •• Export oil pipeline Irkutsk region –– China with a capacity of18 20mln-- 1820 20 tmlneary t mln// t eary •• Export transmission line East Siberia – China with a capacity of 20-20-2525 bln earkWh/y earkWh/y 11 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV MAIN RESULTS OF THE RUSSIA-JAPAN PROJECT 1993-1995 1. Development of oil and gas resources in East Siberia and the Far East to meet internal demands and to supply surplus hydrocarbons to the markets of NEA countries is the strategic priority of socio-economic development of Russia’s eastern region and provision of energy security in NEA. 2. The fundamental scheme of oil-, gas pipeline network and export oil-, gas pipelines in Russia’s East is suggested. The scheme of the gas pipeline network and export pipeline system in Russia’s East was later specified in the framework of joint studies between the Russian research society “Rosaziagaz” and the Northeast Asian Gas and Pipeline Forum, Japan (NAGPF project). 3. Promising coal deposits that are attractive for the Japanese market, potential electricity sources for Russian electricity export to Japan, China and other NEA countries are presented. 4. The mechanisms for implementation of the suggested measures on strengthening the energy cooperation in NEA are proposed. The results of the Russia-Japan project were discussed in December 1996 in Moscow at the Russia-Jappgyyan round table organized by the Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Energy of the RF and Ministry of Foreign Trade and Industry of Japan. ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV SCHEME OF OIL-, GAS PIPELINE NETWORK AND EXPORT OIL-, GAS PIPELINE IN RUSSIA’S EAST Russia-Japan project (1993-1995) Oil pipelines Gas pipelines 13 ©ERINA The Third Japan–Russia Energy and Environment Dialogue Keynote Address SANEEV MAIN RESULTS OF THE RUSSIA-JAPAN PROJECT 1993-1995 1. Development of oil and gas resources in East Siberia and the Far East to meet internal demands and to supply surplus hydrocarbons to the markets of NEA countries is the strategic priority of socio-economic development of Russia’s eastern region and provision of energy security in NEA. 2. The fundamental scheme of oil-, gas pipeline network and export oil-, gas pipelines in Russia’s East is suggested. The scheme of the gas pipeline network and export pipeline system in Russia’s East was later specified in the framework of joint studies between the Russian research society “Rosaziagaz” and the Northeast Asian Gas and Pipeline Forum, Japan (NAGPF project). 3. Promising coal deposits that are attractive for the Japanese market, potential electricity sources for Russian electricity export to Japan, China and other NEA countries are presented. 4. The mechanisms for implementation