JAPB235_proof ■ 7 July 2017 ■ 1/7 Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity xxx (2017) 1e7 55 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect 56 57 Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity 58 59 60 journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/japb 61 62 63 Original article 64 65 1 Predictive analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) 66 2 67 3 distribution in South Korea using CLIMEX software 68 4 69 a a a a 5 Q28 Dae-Hyeon Byeon , Jae-Min Jung , Santosh Lohumi , Byoung-Kwan Cho , 70 6 Sunghoon Jung b,*, Wang-Hee Lee a,* 71 7 72 a 8 Department of Biosystems Machinery Engineering, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Republic of Korea 73 b Department of Applied Biology, Chungnam National University, Daejeon, Republic of Korea 9 74 10 75 11 article info abstract 76 12 77 13 Article history: 78 14 Q1 Climate change has caused various environmental and ecological problems worldwide, as well as trig- Received 31 May 2017 gered invasions by alien insects that cause damage to the local ecology and agriculture. Metcalfa pruinosa, 79 15 Received in revised form a globally dispersed American native insect species, has caused significant damage to agriculture and 80 16 15 June 2017 human life and South Korea is no exception. This species is spreading rapidly in South Korea and causing 81 Accepted 16 June 2017 17 persistent damage with the change in climate; thus, there is an urgent need for effective monitoring of 82 Available online xxx 18 the potential distribution of this species. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of 83 19 M. pruinosa in response to climate change. CLIMEX software, specialized software for predicting species Keywords: 84 20 climate change scenario distribution, was used to evaluate the future distribution pattern of M. pruinosa by combining biological 85 21 CLIMEX information and climatic conditions. According to our simulation, the distribution of M. pruinosa has 86 22 Metcalfa pruinosa expanded on a national scale; however, its invasion will decrease with the current trend in climate 87 change. Nevertheless, a nationwide distribution was predicted to be maintained until 2040, requiring 23 potential distribution 88 24 risk assessment establishment of countermeasures to manage this species in advance. Ó 89 25 2017 National Science Museum of Korea (NSMK) and Korea National Arboretum (KNA), Publishing Services by Elsevier. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http:// 90 26 creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). 91 27 92 28 93 29 94 30 Introduction stage by midJly (Kil et al 2011). In the larval stage, it produces a 95 31 large amount of wax and honeydew, which damages vegetables, 96 32 Invasive species are the species that are released into a nonna- fruits, and flowers (Alma et al 2005). The life cycle consists of only 97 33 tive area intentionally or accidentally (IUCN 2000). Among global one generation per year in North America and Europe; however, 98 34 environmental drawbacks caused by climate change, invasive two generations per year have been observed in central regions in 99 35 species have been identified as a major issue (Hulme 2009). Global the Korean Peninsula. Additionally, in South Korea, adult 100 36 invasive species are estimated to be w200,000 in number, and the M. pruinosa have been observed in midOctober, suggesting its 101 37 number of invasive species introduced to South Korea has increased adaptation to new environment (Kil et al 2011). In South Korea, this 102 38 from 894 in 2009 to 2,167 in 2013 (ME 2014). Among the invasive pest attacked 145 plant species from 62 families, including elm 103 39 species, Metcalfa pruinosa (Say, 1830) is a polyphagous pest, causing trees, redbuds, and false acacias in forest areas as well as 104 40 significant damage to agriculture and hygiene issues in downtown persimmon, grapevine, and ginseng in agricultural areas (Kim and 105 41 areas. This species is native to North America but has spread to Kil 2014). Significant damage by M. pruinosa has been predicted in 106 42 most parts of Europe except southern Europe (Dean and Bailey Europe and North America owing to changes in its potential dis- 107 43 1961; Souliotis et al 2008); its presence in South Korea was tribution caused by climatic conditions (Strauss 2010); this study 108 44 Q4 confirmed in 2009 (Kim et al 2011). M. pruinosa overwinters in the also predicted that M. pruinosa would establish in similar areas in 109 45 egg stage, emerges as nymphs in midMay, and reaches the adult which it is already distributed, and because the main route of 110 46 introduction is the trade of woody plants, it is essential to monitor 111 47 it during the import stage to control its invasion. However, most of 112 48 the recent studies in South Korea have focused on crop damage and 113 49 * þ þ Q2 Corresponding authors. Tel.: 82 42 821 6720; fax: 82 42 823 6246. local pest control rather than the potential distribution of this pest, 114 50 E-mail addresses: [email protected] (S. Jung), [email protected] (W.-H. Lee). despite its wide dispersion throughout the country (Kim and Kil 115 51 Peer review under responsibility of National Science Museum of Korea (NSMK) and 116 Korea National Arboretum (KNA). 2014). Thus, it is essential to evaluate the current and future 52 117 53 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.japb.2017.06.004 118 54 pISSN2287-884X eISSN2287-9544/Ó 2017 National Science Museum of Korea (NSMK) and Korea National Arboretum (KNA), Publishing Services by Elsevier. This is an open 119 access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Please cite this article in press as: Byeon D-H, et al., Predictive analysis of Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) distribution in South Korea using CLIMEX software, Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity (2017), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.japb.2017.06.004 JAPB235_proof ■ 7 July 2017 ■ 2/7 2 DH Byeon et al. / Journal of Asia-Pacific Biodiversity xxx (2017) 1e7 1 66 2 67 3 68 4 69 5 70 6 71 7 72 8 73 9 74 10 75 11 76 12 77 13 78 14 79 15 80 16 81 17 82 18 83 19 84 20 85 21 86 22 87 23 88 24 89 25 90 26 91 27 92 28 93 29 Figure 1. Locations of 74 major cities in South Korea for CLIMEX, including city name, latitude, and longitude. 94 30 95 31 96 32 distribution of M. pruinosa in South Korea for establishing effective distributed intensively in the eastern part of North America. In 97 33 monitoring and control methods. Europe, M. pruinosa was first introduced in Italy in 1970 (Zangheri 98 34 Q5 CLIMEX is specialized software used for predicting potential and Donadini 1980), from where it rapidly dispersed to other Eu- 99 35 distribution of species based on climate data (Jung et al 2016; ropean countries, including Spain (Pons et al 2002), Austria (Kahrer 100 36 Sutherst et al 2007). This software matches the biological charac- and Moosbeckhofer 2003), Hungary (Orosz and Der 2004), 101 37 teristics of target species with climatic conditions in areas where Switzerland (Jermini et al 1995), Greece (Drosopoulos et al 2004), 102 38 species distribution and invasive risk are assessed. This software and France (Della Giustina 1986). In South Korea, M. pruinosa was 103 39 currently emerges as an efficient and economical tool for insect first identified in Suwon in Gyeonggi-do, Gimhae in 104 40 management; studies on the potential distribution of Lantana Gyeongsangnam-do, and around Umyeon Mountain in Seoul in 105 41 camara L. in Australia (Taylor and Kumar 2013), Harmonia axyridis 2009 (Kil et al 2011). In 2013, M. pruinosa was reported to spread to Q6 106 42 as a natural enemy of aphid and coccid (Poutsma et al 2008); and the southern part of South Korea, according to the observations 107 43 the anticipated scale of damage caused by Guignardia citricarpa recorded in the central and southern provinces of 108 44 (Yonow et al 2013), have used Climex for the prediction. Although Chungcheongbuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, 109 45 worldwide application of CLIMEX has increased, only a limited and Jeollanam-do (Kim and Kil 2014). However, it was not 110 46 number of studies have used CLIMEX in Asian countries, except observed in Gangwon-do and Jeju-do, which are geographically 111 47 China. The potential distribution of Thrips palmi according to the separated by a mountain and a sea, respectively. 112 48 representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change 113 49 scenario was simulated in South Korea using CLIMEX by Park et al 114 50 (2014), and Lycorma delicatula distribution was tested using CLI- Current climate data and climate change scenarios 115 51 MEX, as reported in the review article by Jung et al (2016). 116 52 The objective of this study was to predict the potential distri- To simulate the current and potential distribution of M. pruinosa, 117 53 bution of M. pruinosa in South Korea under the current climate a CLIMEX-specific climate database for 74 major cities in South 118 54 conditions and climate change scenario. The parameters for Korea was developed using historical data of 30 years (1981e2010) 119 55 running CLIMEX were determined using data collected for climate provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) 120 56 and biological information of M. pruinosa. Thereafter, a map (Figure 1). The data comprised average values of five variables: 121 57 calculating the adaptability of M.