INCCA REPORT #2 INCCA Reports: 1. India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007, May 2010 2. Climate Change and India: A 4x4 Assessment - A Sectoral and Regional Analysis for 2030s, November 2010 CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: A 4X4 ASSESSMENT A SECTORAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS FOR 2030S INCCA: Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment November 2010 Contact for further details Dr. Subodh K. Sharma Adviser Ministry of Environment and Forests Room No. 112, Paryavaran Bhawan CGO Complex, Lodhi Road New Delhi – 110003 Ministry of Environment & Forests Tel/Fax:91-11-24360861 Government of India Email: [email protected] CLIMATE CHANGE AND INDIA: A 4X4 ASSESSMENT A SECTORAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSIS FOR 2030S 1 2 Institutions, Scientists and Experts who Participated in the Preparation of this Assessment Institution- Scientist/ Expert Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune Jadavpur University, Kolkata K. Krishna Kumar Asis Mazumdar A. Kulkarni S. K. Patwardhan Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee Sharad Jain D. R. Kothawale N. R. Deshpande Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi Nityanand Singh A. P. Dimri National Institute of Oceanography Central Ground Water Board, Delhi A. S. Unnikrishnan Rana Chatterjee R. Mani Murali B. M. Jha M.R. Ramesh Kumar S. K. Sinha G.S. Michael D. Sundar Integrated Natural Resource Management, Delhi Sandhya Rao B. Sindhu Pratap Singh R. Rodrigues Central Agricultural Research Institute, Port Blair Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Delhi S. K. Ambast S. Naresh Kumar National Institute of Malaria Research (ICMR), Delhi International Water Management Institute R. C. Dhiman P. K. Aggarwal Indian Institute of Public Health, Hyderabad Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute Mala Rao E. Vivekanandan Andy Beckingham Y S Parmar University K. S. Verma Ministry of Environment and Forests Subodh Sharma G. B. Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment Sumana Bhattacharya and Development, Almora Sudatta Ray L. M. S. Palni Kireet Kumar Ranbeer S Rawal Rajesh Joshi Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore N. H. Ravindranath G. Bala M. Jayaraman R. Gopalakrishnan Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi A. K. Gosain R. Srinivasan National Rainfed Area Authority, New Delhi K. D. Sharma 3 Acknowledgement The Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA) is a network-based programme of the Ministry of Environment & Forests, which consists of over 120 institutions and over 250 scientists country wide. The Ministry takes the opportunity to acknowledge the work of a large number of scientists and experts on various aspects of climate change, particularly those who have contributed to the INCCA Assessments. Understandably, the contributions of various scientists/ experts associated with this assessment have also in turn received assistance from various institutions and agencies. The Ministry appreciates and acknowledges their cooperation and support. 4 Contents Foreword 1. The Context 11 1.1 The Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment 11 1.2 The 4x4 Assessment 12 2. Key Sectors and Regions 15 2.1 Observed climate and climate change projections 15 2.2 Sea-level rise, extreme events and projections 15 2.3 The four regions 16 2.3.1 The Himalayan Region 16 2.3.2 The Western Ghats 18 2.3.3 North-Eastern Region 19 2.3.4 The Coastal Region 21 2.4 The four sectors 22 2.4.1 Agriculture 22 2.4.2 Forests 23 2.4.3 Human health 24 2.4.4 Water 24 3. The Observed Climate and Climate Change Projections 25 3.1 Introduction 25 3.1.1 Observed Trends of Global Climate 26 3.1.2 Projected Changes in Global Climate 26 3.2 Assessing Climate Change 27 3.2.1 Global Climate Models 27 3.2.2 High Resolution Climate Models for Regional Assessments 27 3.3 Observed Climate trends over India 28 3.3.1 Description of data used in this assessment 28 3.3.2 Annual mean temperature trends 28 3.3.3 Annual trends in maximum temperature 29 3.3.4 Annual trends in minimum temperature 29 3.3.5 Annual trends of extreme temperature events 29 3.3.6 Variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall 32 3.3.7 Spatial trends of monsoon rainfall 33 3.3.8 Extreme precipitation trends 33 3.4 Regional Projections of Climate 35 3.4.1 Model and scenario used for the regional assessment 35 3.4.2 Projections of precipitation 36 3.4.3 Projections of mean annual surface temperature 39 3.4.4 Projections of extreme precipitation 41 3.4.5 Projected changes in temperature extremes 42 3.4.6 Projected changes in storms 42 5 4. Observed Sea-level Rise, Extreme Events and Future Projections 45 4.1 Introduction 45 4.2 Observed sea-level rise and future projections 45 4.2.1 Observed sea-level rise trends – Global and along the Indian coastline 45 4.2.2 Projections of sea-level rise – Global and along the Indian coastline 47 4.3 Extreme Sea level along the east coast of India 48 4.3.1 Observed trends of cyclonic storms 48 4.3.2 Projections of changes in cyclonic activity 51 4.3.3 Simulation of storm surges in present and future climate scenarios 51 4.4 Projected coastal inundation due to sea-level rise 53 5. Agriculture 67 5.1 Introduction 67 5.2 Methodology for estimating climate change impacts 68 5.3 The Western Ghats 69 5.3.1 Farming practices in Western Ghats 69 5.3.2 Observed changes 70 5.3.3 Projected impacts on agriculture productivity in the 2030’s 70 5.4 Coastal region 71 5.4.1 Agriculture productivity in the coastal region 71 5.4.2 Projected impacts of climate change on crops in the 2030’s 73 5.4.3 Impact of climate change on coastal fi sheries 73 5.5 North-Eastern region 79 5.5.1 Agricultural practices in the North-Eastern region 79 5.5.2 Projected impacts of climate change on crops in 2030’s in the North-Eastern region 80 5.6 Himalayan region 80 5.6.1 Crop production practices in the Himalayan region 80 5.6.2 Observed changes 80 5.6.3 Changing apple productivity in the Himalayan region 82 5.7 Thermal stress effects on livestock productivity 83 6. Natural Ecosystems and Biodiversity 89 6.1 Introduction 89 6.2 What is known 90 6.2.1 Ecosystems, their response to climate change and key issues 90 6.2.2 A review of impacts of climate change on ecosystems and biodiversity in India 90 6.3 Projections for the 2030’s on forest vegetation - Methodology 92 6.3.1 Climate model 93 6.3.2 Vegetation model 93 6.3.3 Scenarios of climate change and period of assessment 93 6.3.4 Validation of the model 93 6.4 Impact of climate change on forests 93 6.4.1 Western Ghats 93 6.4.2 Himalayas 95 6.4.3 Coastal regions 96 6.4.4 North-East region 98 6.5 Comparison across regions 98 6 7. Human Health 101 7.1 Introduction 101 7.2 Public health in India and climate change 101 7.3 Climate change and malaria 102 7.3.1 Inter-relationship between climate, mosquito vector and malaria transmission 102 7.3.2 Sensitivity and vulnerabilities of current climate on Malaria vector and disease in India 104 7.4 Methodology for determination of transmission windows of malaria 104 7.5 Projections of Malaria transmission at national level 104 7.6 Regional projection scenarios 106 7.6.1 Himalayan region 106 7.6.2 North-Eastern region 108 7.6.3 Western Ghats 109 7.6.4 Coastal areas 111 8. Water 115 8.1 Introduction 115 8.2 Water Resources in India – The regional distribution 116 8.2.1 Rivers 116 8.2.2 Glaciers 117 8.2.3 Ground water 117 8.3 Observed changes in glaciers in India 119 8.4 Review of projections of climate change on water resources in India 120 8.5 Regional projections for 2030’s 120 8.5.1 Methodology and data used 120 8.5.2 The Hydrologic Simulation with baseline scenario 121 8.5.3 The Hydrologic Simulation with climate change scenario in the 2030’s 121 8.5.3.1 Himalayan region 121 8.5.3.2 North--East region 124 8.5.3.3 West Coast region 124 8.5.3.4 East Coast region 125 8.6 Impact Assessment 125 8.6.1 Drought Analysis 125 8.6.2 Flood Analysis 126 9. Salient fi ndings, Challenges and the Way Forward 129 9.1 Salient fi ndings 129 9.2 Challenges, gaps and uncertainties 140 9.2.1. Demarcating the regions 141 9.2.2. Data gaps and uncertainty in modelling 141 9.3 Way Forward 142 9.3.1 Addressing data gaps 142 9.3.2 Systematic observations 142 9.3.3 Accessing multiple regional climate models with higher resolution 142 9.3.4 Building capacity 143 9.3.5 Making a Pan-Indian regional assessment for informed policy- making at all levels 143 References 144 Glossary of Key Terms 155 7 8 Foreword I have great pleasure in institutions and over 220 scientists from across introducing the report the country to undertake scientifi c assessments “Climate Change of different aspects of climate change and India: A 4X4 assessment. As I have stated earlier, we need to Assessment A sectoral make the “3 M’s” – Measure, Model and Monitor and regional analysis – the foundation of our decision-making and we need for 2030s”, prepared to build indigenous capacity for this. We should not be by the Indian Network dependent on external studies to tell us for example for Climate Change about the impact of climate change on our glaciers, Assessment (INCCA).