Chapter 2 Setting Goals and Milestones The Minnesota Nutrient Reduction Strategy (NRS) includes goals and milestones for nutrient reduction at multiple scales including supporting goals and objectives for protecting and restoring nutrient sensitive waters within the state, and expected outcomes at the major basin (e.g., Mississippi River Major Basin at the state line) and major watershed (e.g., 8-digit hydrologic unit code [HUC8] watershed) outlets. Progress toward goals and milestones can be tracked over time to determine if strategies are successful and where additional work is needed. The following definitions apply throughout the NRS document: Goal – Ultimate nutrient reduction desired for water quality improvement, expressed as a percent reduction in load. Goals are expected to be updated as new information becomes available in the various major basins. Milestone – An interim goal to be achieved, expressed in terms of load reduction. Milestones are used in this NRS to define loading reductions that represent environmental progress. Baseline – Represents initial time period against which goals are compared and trends in water quality and programmatic implementation are evaluated. Identifying and integrating downstream needs and objectives with nutrient reduction goals at various watershed scales is an important part of the NRS intended to create a win-win approach for water quality improvement and protection. Downstream needs include total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) for phosphorus-impacted in-state rivers, regional lakes and reservoirs, along with both nitrogen and phosphorus reduction needs for the Gulf of Mexico, Lake Winnipeg, and other out-of-state waters. 2.1 Major Basin-Wide Goals and Milestones Several existing efforts establish nutrient reduction targets for large drainages within Minnesota and provide a suitable framework for load reduction goals. Individual nutrient reduction goals (phosphorus and nitrogen) in this NRS are included for the following three major river basins (Figure 2-1): Mississippi River Major Basin (including the Missouri River, Cedar River, and Des Moines River basins) Lake Superior Major Basin Lake Winnipeg Major Basin (including the Red River and Rainy River basins) wq-s1-80d 2-2 Chapter 2. Setting Goals and Milestones In addition, a groundwater/source water protection goal is included to address groundwater as a drinking water source. Nutrient reduction needed to improve in-state rivers, lakes, and reservoirs is described in Section 2.2. Figure 2-1. Minnesota’s major basins and basins. Minnesota Nutrient Reduction Strategy Chapter 2. Setting Goals and Milestones 2-3 The NRS is based on load reduction goals that have previously been stated in applicable plans or policies. Goals are expressed as a percent reduction from loads during a baseline time period. Table 2-1 presents the goals, which are derived from existing planning goals as found in the following references: Lake Superior – Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978, amended by a protocol signed November 18, 1987. NRS Goals Lake Winnipeg – The Manitoba Water Stewardship Division NRS goals for reductions to developed the Lake Winnipeg Action Plan in 2003. The Major Basin Waters such as International Red River Board is currently working on the Mississippi Basin/Gulf developing nutrient reduction goals, expected to be of Mexico are based on completed in 2014 or 2015. Goals associated with the 2003 load reduction goals or reference are included as provisional goals and are expected water quality targets that to be higher as a result of the International Red River Board have previously been stated in plans or policies. plan. Mississippi River (Gulf of Mexico) – The Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force developed the 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan. Minnesota has assumed a nutrient reduction goal that is proportional to the load reductions needed in the Gulf of Mexico drainage area as a whole, as a percentage of baseline loads. In the future, it is possible that states could be allocated a nutrient load to meet the Gulf of Mexico goals. In the meantime, Minnesota will strive to reduce nutrient loads applying an equitable “fair-share” approach using a proportional reduction of the baseline load. Goals associated with this reference are included as provisional goals since the authorities for downstream waters may adjust the overall goals at some time in the future. Other states are concurrently developing their goals and strategies. It is the mission of the Hypoxia Task Force to coordinate these strategies. Statewide Groundwater/Source Water – Minnesota Groundwater Protection Act. The 1989 Act’s degradation prevention goal states, “It is the goal of the state that groundwater be maintained in its natural condition, free from any degradation caused by human activities. It is recognized that for some human activities, this degradation prevention goal cannot be practicably achieved. However, where prevention is practicable, it is intended that it be achieved. Where it is not currently practicable, the development of methods and technology that will make prevention practical is encouraged.” Minnesota Nutrient Reduction Strategy 2-4 Chapter 2. Setting Goals and Milestones Table 2-1. Major basin-wide nutrient reduction goals Major basin Phosphorus reduction goal Nitrogen reduction goal Qualitative – continued implementation of Lake Superior a Maintain 1979 conditions specific nutrient management programs Lake Winnipeg b 10% reduction from 2003 conditions 13% reduction from 2003 conditions 45% reduction from average 1980– 45% reduction from average 1980–1996 Mississippi River c 1996 conditions conditions Statewide Groundwater/ Meet the degradation prevention goal of Not applicable Source Water the Minnesota Groundwater Protection Act a. Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 1978, amended by a protocol signed November 18, 1987. b. 2003 Lake Winnipeg Action Plan; Provisional goal, milestones to be revised upon completion of the Red River/Lake Winnipeg strategy. Lake Winnipeg Goals are expected to change in the near future, resulting in additional load reduction needs which could approach a 50 percent reduction. c. 2008 Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan; Provisional goal; Also includes drainage associated with Missouri, Des Moines, and Cedar rivers. In addition to goals, milestones serve as interim measures of progress and were developed as part of the NRS. Milestones provide a step-wise approach to meeting major basin goals for nutrient reduction and can adapt to the changing landscape, regulatory environment, and suitability of available BMPs. Milestones are an important component of the NRS because of a variety of factors, including the following: The adoption of future water quality standards will drive Milestone point source reductions in some watersheds; the timing of Foundation standards adoption is critical to long-term planning. The basis for milestone Additional research and successful pilot demonstrations selection is the balancing of are required for several types of point and nonpoint meaningful environmental source BMPs before widespread adoption. outcomes with achievable actions working together Effective nitrogen reductions at wastewater treatment across all sectors. Achieving facilities require several years of planning. milestones represents progress toward the goals Milestones are phased over time, depending on parameter and for nutrient reduction. major basin. One milestone is included in the NRS to address nitrogen reductions in the Mississippi River Major Basin. Milestones for the Lake Winnipeg Major Basin are anticipated in future revisions of the NRS along with higher reduction goals being developed as part of a Red River/Lake Winnipeg strategy to reduce nutrient loading. The International Red River Basin Water Quality Committee has suggested that revised goals for the Red River may be as high as a 50 percent nutrient reduction (IIRB Water Quality Committee meeting June 23, 2014). Minnesota Nutrient Reduction Strategy Chapter 2. Setting Goals and Milestones 2-5 Mississippi Nitrogen Milestone–While progress can be made with existing BMPs for nitrogen reduction, achieving nitrogen goals for the Mississippi River will also require research and development of new BMPs and adjustment to some current BMPs to make them more widely applicable. As a result, a longer timeframe is proposed for nitrogen reduction implementation. In addition, nitrate standards for aquatic life that are currently being considered will require several years for approval and implementation. For nitrogen in the Mississippi River Major Basin, a milestone reduction of 20 percent is established with a target date of 2025. Future milestones for nitrogen reduction will be established based on progress toward the milestone, along with adaptations that integrate new knowledge and needs for continued improvement. The timeframe for achieving the provisional goal is likely between 2035 and 2045 and will be refined after the success of future BMP research is evaluated, and as the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxia Task Force further considers timeframes for reaching goals. For now, a projected target date for achieving the NRS provisional goal of 45 percent reduction is 2040. Table 2-2 presents the target dates for goals and milestones, which are based on reducing major basin outlet loads. Strategies and target dates for goals and milestones will be adjusted through an adaptive management process. Table 2-2. Timeline for reaching goals and milestones