Navigating the Numbers Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy KEVIN A. BAUMERT TIMOTHY HERZOG JONATHAN PERSHING Hyacinth Billings Publications Director Dever Designs Cover Design and Layout Each World Resources Institute report represents a timely, scholarly treatment of a subject of public concern. WRI takes responsibility for choosing the study topics and guaranteeing its authors and researchers freedom of inquiry. It also solicits and responds to the guidance of advisory panels and expert reviewers. Unless otherwise stated, however, all the interpretation and findings set forth in WRI publications are those of the authors. Copyright © 2005 World Resources Institute. All rights reserved. ISBN: 1-56973-599-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2005936305 Printed in the United States of America on chlorine-free paper with recycled content of 50%, 15% of which is post-consumer. The cover and title page image is a photograph of the Tacoma, Washington harbor by Ray Pfortner/Peter Arnold Inc. The photograph on page 21 is a photograph of a street in Delhi, India by Jean-Leo Dugast/Lineair/ Peter Arnold, Inc. Table of Contents LIST OF TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES IV ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VII FOREWORD VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY IX Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION 1 PART I. COUNTRY-BASED DATA AND INDICATORS 9 Chapter 2 GHG EMISSIONS AND TRENDS 11 Chapter 3 EMISSIONS PROJECTIONS 17 Chapter 4 PER CAPITA EMISSIONS 21 Chapter 5 EMISSIONS INTENSITY 25 Chapter 6 CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS 31 Chapter 7 SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 35 Chapter 8 ENERGY AND FUELS 41 Chapter 9 INTERNATIONAL TRADE 47 PART II. SECTOR-BASED DATA AND INDICATORS 51 Chapter 10 SECTORAL EMISSIONS AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION 53 Chapter 11 ELECTRICITY AND HEAT 59 Chapter 12 TRANSPORT 63 Sector Spotlight: Aviation 67 Chapter 13 INDUSTRY 69 Sector Spotlight: Chemicals and Petrochemicals 72 Sector Spotlight: Cement 74 Sector Spotlight: Steel 76 Sector Spotlight: Aluminum 78 Chapter 14 BUILDINGS 81 Chapter 15 AGRICULTURE 85 Chapter 16 WASTE 89 Chapter 17 LAND-USE CHANGE & FORESTRY 91 CONTENTS III ENDNOTES 94 REFERENCES 97 APPENDIX 1: CLIMATE ANALYSIS INDICATORS TOOL 101 APPENDIX 2: SECTORS AND END-USES 102 GLOSSARY AND ABBREVIATIONS 106 TABLES Table 1. 25 Largest Countries: GHG Emissions, Economy, and Population 110 Table 2. Shares of National Emissions for Different Gas/Source Categories 111 Table 3. Intensity Indicators and Trends, 2002 112 Table 4. Indicators of Historical Contributions to Climate Change, 1850–2002 113 Table 5. Cumulative Emissions and LUCF, 1950–2000 114 Table 6. Cumulative Emissions and Time Periods 115 Table 7. Health, Education, and Governance Indicators, 2002 116 Table 8. Coal Consumption, Production, and Reserves, 2004 117 Table 9. Oil Consumption, Production, and Reserves, 2004 118 Table 10. Natural Gas Consumption, Production, and Reserves, 2004 119 Table 11. GHG Emissions From Agriculture, 2000 120 BOXES Box 1.1. Milestones in the International Climate Change Regime 3 Box 2.1. Factors Driving Energy-Related CO2 Emissions 16 Box 7.1. Sustainable Development Policies and Measures (SD-PAMs) 39 Box 10.1. Forms of International Sectoral Cooperation 54 Box 10.2. Leakage and International Competitiveness 56 Box 13.1. The Global Aluminum Climate Change Initiative 79 FIGURES Figure 1.1. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Concentrations, 1750–2004 3 Figure 1.2. Global Emissions of CO2 from Fossil Fuels, 1900–2004 4 Figure 1.3. GHG Flow Diagram, Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions 4 Figure 1.4. Selected Sources of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases 6 Figure 2.1. Top GHG Emitting Countries 12 Figure 2.2. GHG Emission Levels by Country 12 Figure 2.3. Aggregate Contributions of Major GHG Emitting Countries 13 Figure 2.4. Top 25 GHG Emitters by Region and Organization 13 Figure 2.5. Top 25: GHG Emissions, Population, and GDP 14 Figure 2.6. Emission Profiles by Gas and Source 14 Figure 2.7. GHG Emissions Growth, 1990–2002 15 Figure 2.8. Factors Contributing to CO2 Emissions Growth, 1990–2002 15 Figure 3.1. Projected Emissions of GHGs in 2025 18 Figure 3.2. Uncertainty in Future CO2 Emissions 18 Figure 3.3. Accuracy of Emission Projections 19 Figure 4.1. Emissions per Capita, 2000 22 Figure 4.2. GHG Emissions per Capita: Selected Country Groupings 23 Figure 4.3. Influence of Population in CO2 Trends, 1990–2002 23 Figure 4.4. Population Growth, 1990–2002 24 Figure 5.1. Emissions Intensity Levels and Trends 26 Figure 5.2. Fuel Mix in Energy Supply, 2002 27 Figure 5.3. South Korea: Relationship Between CO2 and GDP, 1990–2002 28 Figure 5.4. Absolute (CO2) v. Intensity (CO2/GDP) Forecasts, 1990–2002 29 IV NAVIGATING THE NUMBERS: GREENHOUSE GAS DATA AND INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY Figure 6.1. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1850–2002 32 Figure 6.2. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, 1950–2000 33 Figure 6.3. Cumulative CO2 Emissions, Comparison of Different Time Periods 33 Figure 7.1. Income Per Capita, Top 25 GHG Emitting Countries 36 Figure 7.2. Income Per Capita, 2002 36 Figure 7.3. Income Per Capita and GHG Emissions 37 Figure 7.4. Projected Income Relative to Historical Levels 37 Figure 7.5. Access to Electricity 38 Figure 7.6. Motor Vehicles per 1,000 People 38 Figure 8.1. GHGs from Energy 41 Figure 8.2. Energy Consumption, Total and Per Capita, 2002 42 Figure 8.3. Heating and Cooling Degree Days 42 Figure 8.4. World Primary Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions 43 Figure 8.5. Carbon Content of Fossil Fuels 43 Figure 8.6. Reserves to Production (R/P) Ratios, 2004 43 Figure 8.7. Global Fossil Fuel Consumption, 2004 43 Figure 8.8. Projected Growth in Energy Demand, 2002–2030 44 Figure 8.9. Shares of Fossil Fuels Traded 44 Figure 8.10. Coal Consumption, Production, and Reserves, 2004 44 Figure 8.11. Fossil Fuel Consumption by Sector and Fuel, 2002 45 Figure 8.12. Oil Consumption, Production, and Reserves, 2004 45 Figure 8.13. Natural Gas Consumption, Production, and Reserves, 2004 46 Figure 9.1. Trade and National Economies 48 Figure 9.2. CO2 Emissions from Production and Consumption 48 Figure 10.1. Criteria for Evaluating Sectors 55 Figure 10.2. Summary of Sector Analysis 57 Figure 11.1. GHGs from Electricity and Heat 60 Figure 11.2. Electricity and Heat Emissions, Trends and Projections 60 Figure 11.3. CO2 from Electricity and Heat 61 Figure 11.4. Electricity and Heat (Shares by fuel) 61 Figure 11.5. CO2 from Electricity and Heat, Total and Per Capita, 2002 62 Figure 11.6. Fuel Mix in the Electricity Sector, 2002 62 Figure 12.1. GHGs from Transportation 63 Figure 12.2. GHGs from Transportation, Trends and Projections 64 Figure 12.3. Transportation (Shares by fuel) 64 Figure 12.4. CO2 from Transportation, Total and Per Capita, 2002 65 Figure 12.5. CO2 from Transportation 65 Figure 12.6. Motor Vehicle Production 65 Figure 12.7. Leading Motor Vehicle Manufacturers 66 Figure 12.8. CO2 from Aviation, 2002 67 Figure 13.1. GHGs from Industry 70 Figure 13.2. GHGs from Industry, Trends and Projections 70 Figure 13.3. CO2 from Industry, Total and Per Capita, 2002 71 Figure 13.4. Direct CO2 Emissions from Industry 71 Figure 13.5. GHGs from Chemicals and Petrochemicals 72 Figure 13.6. Chemical Production, 2004 73 Figure 13.7. Leading Chemical Companies, 2003 73 Figure 13.8. GHGs from Cement Manufacture 74 Figure 13.9. Cement Manufacture, 2004 74 Figure 13.10. Leading Cement Companies, 2003 75 Figure 13.11. CO2 from Iron and Steel 76 Figure 13.12. Steel Production, 2004 77 Figure 13.13. Leading Steel Companies, 2004 77 Figure 13.14. GHGs from Aluminum Manufacture 78 Figure 13.15. Aluminum Production, 2004 78 CONTENTS V Figure 13.16. Leading Aluminum Companies, 2004 79 Figure 14.1. CO2 from Building Use 81 Figure 14.2. CO2 from Building Use, Trends and Projections 82 Figure 14.3. CO2 from Building Use, Total and Per Capita, 2002 83 Figure 14.4. Relative Shares of CO2 Emissions from Building Use, 2002 84 Figure 14.5. Correlation of Socioeconomic Development and Building Sector Emissions, 2002 84 Figure 15.1. GHGs from Agriculture 86 Figure 15.2. GHGs from Agriculture, Trends and Projections 86 Figure 15.3. GHGs from Agriculture, Total and Per Capita, 2000 87 Figure 15.4. Agriculture and the National Economy 87 Figure 16.1. GHGs from Waste 89 Figure 16.2. GHGs from Waste, Trends and Projections 90 Figure 16.3. GHGs from Waste, Total and Per Capita, 2000 90 Figure 17.1. CO2 from LUCF 92 Figure 17.2. Annual Emissions and Absorptions from Land-Use Change Activities 92 Figure 17.3. CO2 from Land-Use Change, Total and Per Capita, 2000 93 Figure 17.4. Comparison of LUCF Estimates 93 VI NAVIGATING THE NUMBERS: GREENHOUSE GAS DATA AND INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY Acknowledgements Navigating the Numbers would not have been possible without the data, information, and advice provided by experts and institutions working on climate change around the world. We are especially grateful to the provid- ers of data used in this report and in WRI’s Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT). This includes BP, the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, the Dutch National Institute of Public Health and the Environ- ment (RIVM), Richard Houghton, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency, the United Nations Development Programme, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the World Bank, and the World Economic Forum. We owe particular gratitude to the many individuals that helped develop and test CAIT—the data and analysis tool that served as the basis for much of this report. Matthew Markoff, Odile Blanchard, Niklas Höhne, and Harald Winkler made especially significant contributions.