WWW.IPPR.ORG Wherestandsthe Unionnow? Lessonsfromthe2007ScottishParliamentelection ByJohnCurtice February2008 ©ippr/ipprnorth2008 InstituteforPublicPolicyResearch Challengingideas– Changingpolicy 2 ippr|WhereStandstheUnionNow?Lessonsfromthe2007ScottishParliamentelection Aboutippr Aboutipprnorth TheInstituteforPublicPolicyResearch(ippr)istheUK’s ipprnorth,theNewcastle-basedofficeoftheInstitutefor leadingprogressivethinktank,producingcutting-edge PublicPolicyResearch,producesfar-reachingpolicyideas, researchandinnovativepolicyideasforajust,democratic stimulatingsolutionsthatworknationallyaswellaslocally. andsustainableworld. Theseareshapedfromourresearch,whichspansthe northerneconomicagenda,publicservices,devolution,food Since1988,wehavebeenattheforefrontofprogressive policyandruralissues,aswellasastrongdemocratic debateandpolicymakingintheUK.Throughour engagementstrandwhichinvolvesawiderangeofaudiences independentresearchandanalysiswedefinenewagendas inpoliticaldebates. forchangeandprovidepracticalsolutionstochallenges acrossthefullrangeofpublicpolicyissues. ipprnorth BioscienceCentre,CentreforLife,NewcastleuponTyne WithofficesinbothLondonandNewcastle,weensureour NE14EP outlookisasbroad-basedaspossible,whileourinternational Tel:01912112645 andmigrationteamsandclimatechangeprogrammeextend www.ippr.org/ipprnorth ourpartnershipsandinfluencebeyondtheUK,givingusa RegisteredCharityNo.800065 trulyworld-classreputationforhighqualityresearch. ippr 30-32SouthamptonStreet,CoventGarden,LondonWC2E ThispaperwasfirstpublishedinFebruary2008. 7RA ©ippr/ipprnorth2008 Tel:+44(0)2074706100 Theopinionsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthors [email protected] anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsofipproripprnorth. www.ippr.org RegisteredCharityNo.800065 ‘TheFutureoftheUnion’ Abouttheauthor Thispaperformspartofaseriesofcommissionedresearch JohnCurticeisProfessorofPoliticsandDirectoroftheSocial papersforipprnorthandippr’s‘FutureoftheUnion’project. StatisticsLaboratoryattheUniversityofStrathclyde.Hehas Tomarkthe300thanniversaryoftheActsofUnion,ippris beenaco-editoroftheBritishSocialAttitudesseriessince exploringthestateoftheUniontoday,thechallengesit 1994andaco-directoroftheScottishSocialAttitudessurvey facesanditsfuture.Wearelookingattheeconomic, since1999.HeisafrequentcommentatoronScottishand constitutional,socialandculturalaspectsoftheUnion,as Britishpoliticsinthemedia. wellaschangingpublicattitudestowardsit. ipprwouldliketothanktheEnglishRegionsNetworkand TheNorthernWayfortheirgeneroussupportforthiswork. 3 ippr|WhereStandstheUnionNow?Lessonsfromthe2007ScottishParliamentelection Executivesummary betweenthestatusquo,regionalassembliesandan EnglishParliamenttheresultsareagaindifferent.Alittle Scotland overhalfoptforthestatusquo,whiletherestsplitquite DespitetheScottishNationalParty(SNP)’ssuccessinthe evenlybetweenthetwootheroptions.Itisnotclearthat 2007ScottishParliamentelection,thereisnoevidence supportforsomeformofdevolutioninEnglandhas thatsupportforindependencehasincreasedinrecent increased. years.Indeed,sincethe2007ScottishParliamentary PeopleinEnglanddo,however,appeartowantresolution electionssupportforindependenceseemstohavefallento ofthe‘WestLothian’question(thatis,thefactthat itslowestlevelsince1997. ScottishMPscanvoteonlawsthatapplyonlytoEngland WhenScotsaresimplyaskedwhethertheysupportor whileEnglishMPscannotvoteinScottishlegislation). oppose‘independence’plentyofpollsfindthatoverhalf However,thelevelofawarenessandconcernabouteither doso.Butitisnotclearwhatpeopleunderstandby thisissueorthehigherlevelofpublicspendinginScotland ‘independence’whenaskedaboutitinthisway–whether doesnotseem,asyetatleast,tobeveryhigh. theymeanautonomywithintheUKorastateseparate Conclusion fromtherestoftheUK.Whenofferedarangeofdifferent TheelectionoftheSNPinScotlanddoesnotsignalany constitutionaloptions–thestatusquo,morepowers,or newdesiretoendtheUnion.Buttheapparentwishin independence–typicallyonlyaroundthreeintenpeople ScotlandfortheScottishParliamenttohavemorepowers, inScotlandsaytheywantindependence.Thereis, togetherwiththepotentialfordiscontentinEnglandabout however,considerablesupportforgivingtheScottish theanomaliesofdevolution,meansthatthepotentialfor Parliamentmorepowers. tensionbetweenthetwocountriesclearlyexists. AlthoughsupportfortheSNPincreasedin2007by9.1 pointsontheconstituencyvoteand10.2pointsonthe regionalone,theoverall increaseinsupportforpro- 1.Introduction independenceparties(SNP,Greens,SolidarityandScottish SocialistParty)wasjust2.9and2.8pointsrespectively. Itwasnotmeanttohappen.GivingScotlandherown Whilesupportforindependencehasnotincreased,those devolvedparliamentwassupposedtohelpcementher whoalreadyfavouredindependenceweremuchmore placeintheUnionwhilemaintainingLabour’shegemony willingtobacktheSNP.In2003onlyhalfofthosewho withinthecountryitself.Buton3May2007,injustthe favourindependencevotedfortheSNP;in2007three thirdelectiontotheScottishParliament,theScottish quartersdidso. NationalParty(SNP),advocatesofindependencefor Scottishvotershaveconsistentlybeenmorewillingtosay Scotland,outpolledLabourandseizedthereinsofpower theywouldvotefortheSNPinadevolvedelectionthan inEdinburgh. theywouldinaWestminstercontest.Theoppositeistrue Surelytherecouldnotbeanystrongersignalthat,exactly forLabour.ThecreationofScottishParliamentelections 300yearsafteritwascreated,theUnionofEnglandand hasthusthrowntheSNPanelectorallifeline–butthishas Scotlandisnowindangeroffallingapart?Scotland,it beentrueeversince1999. appears,wantstogoitsownway.AndnowthatEngland JackMcConnellandtheLabour-ledScottishExecutive hasseenjusthowlittlegratitudepeopleinScotland werenotsignificantlylesspopularin2007thanin2003. demonstratefortheadvantagesandprivilegesthata Whatwasdifferentabout2007wasthattheSNPwasled devolvedparliamenthasgiventhem,perhapsitwillsimply byafarmorecharismaticleaderinAlexSalmond,whilethe beinclinedtosay,‘goodriddance’. UKLabourgovernmentwasmuchlesspopular. Thispaperassessesthevalidityofthispicture.Ituses England currentlyavailablesurveyevidencetoassesstheapparent ManycommentatorshavebeenwaitingforanEnglish implicationsoftheelectionforthehealthoftheUnion. ‘backlash’againstanasymmetricdevolutionsettlement DoestheSNP’s‘victory’reallysignifythatScotlandnow thatleavesEnglandout.Butthelevelsofsupport wishestoleavetheUnion?JusthowdidLabourin uncoveredinpollsforeitherEnglish‘independence’oran Scotlandcometoloseanelectionforthefirsttimein50 EnglishparliamentwithintheUniondependsonhowthe years?AndhowresentfuldoesEnglandappeartobeof questionisposed.Forexample,somepollsshowthatwhile recentdevelopmentsnorthoftheborder?Weaddress aroundhalfappeartosupport‘independence’,nearlythee- thesequestionsintwoparts.First,weexaminehowpublic quartersopposethe‘endoftheUnion’.Equally,while opinionhasdevelopedinScotlandsincetheadventof somerecentpollshavefoundmorethan50percent devolution.Wethenturntoassesswhatevidencethereis supportforanEnglishParliament,whengivenachoice ofanEnglishbacklash. 4 ippr|WhereStandstheUnionNow?Lessonsfromthe2007ScottishParliamentelection 2.Scotland evincedbythisquestionmeltedawayintheheatofthe1999 electioncampaign,itwasalmostbackuptothehalfway Supportforindependence markagainjustafewmonthsafterwards.Inshort,whenthey ItiseasytofindevidencethatmostpeopleinScotland aresimplyaskedwhethertheyarefororagainstit,peoplein apparentlyfavourindependence.Forexample,inOctober Scotlandhavelongbeeninclinedtosaytheyareinfavourof 2006,asthepartiesweregearingupforthefollowingyear’s independence. campaign,justoverhalfthosesurveyedbyanICMpollfor Butwhatdorespondentsunderstandbytheterm TheScotsmannewspapersaidthattheywouldvoteinfavour ‘independence’whenaskedaboutitinthisway?The ofindependenceinareferendum.Thispollwasbutoneof wordingofthequestioncertainlydoesnotgivethemany manyconductedintherun-uptothe300thanniversaryof indicationaboutwhatitisintendedtomean.Inresponding theUnioninJanuary2007tosuggestthatthedaysofthe affirmativelysomerespondentsmaywellbeindicatingthat UnionwerefinallynumberedsofarasScottishpublicopinion theywantScotlandtobeanindependentstate,separate wasconcerned. fromtherestoftheUnitedKingdom.Butperhapsothers However,asTable1shows,thiswasfarfrombeingthefirst simplymeanthatScotlandshouldhaveareasonabledegree timethatsucharesulthadbeenobtained.Thesame ofautonomyandnotberunfromLondon. questionwasaskedbythesamepollingcompanyona Assoonaswelookatthepatternofresponsestosurvey regularbasisintherun-uptothefirstScottishParliament questionsthatdogivesomeindicationofwhatmightbe electionin1999.Ineveryoneofhalfadozensurveys meantbyindependenceweuncoveraratherdifferentpattern conductedinScotlandinthesecondhalfof1998,around ofanswers.Table2showsonesuchexample,inwhich halfofthosepolledsaidtheywouldvoteinfavourof YouGovregularlyinvitedrespondentstosaywhetherina independence.Andwhilesupportforindependenceas referendumtheywouldvoteinfavourofScotlandbecoming Table1.TrendsinsupportforindependenceinScotland1998-2007 InareferendumonindependenceforScotland,howwouldyouvote? IagreethatScotlandshouldbecomeanindependentcountry IdonotagreethatScotlandshouldbecomeanindependentcountry 1998 Jun(1) Jun(2) Jul Sep(1) Sep(2) Nov Agree 52% 56% 49% 51% 48% 49% Disagree 41% 35% 44% 38% 37% 3% 1999 Jan Feb Mar Apr(1) Apr(2) Apr(3) May(1) May(2) Agree 49% 44% 42% 47% 41% 41% 39% 38% Disagree 42% 47% 47% 44% 48% 46% 48% 50% Jan2000 Feb2001 Oct2006 Feb2007 Mar2007 Apr2007 Agree 47% 45% 51% 46% 38% 33% Disagree 43% 49% 39% 44% 44% 46% Source:ICM,exceptMarandApr2007,MarketResearchUK Table2.Supportfordevolutionvs.independence2003-7* Apr2003 Apr2005 Nov2006 Mar2007 Apr2007 InfavourofretainingpresentScottishParliament 55%