Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics Afghanistan opium survey 2017 Challenges to sustainable development, peace and security MAY 2018 MAY MCN/NSD Narcotics Survey Directorate Page intentionally left blank Content Content ........................................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive summary ......................................................................................................................................... 4 Area under opium poppy cultivation and opium production reached a new record high in 2017 ............ 4 Reasons for the sharp increase between 2016 and 2017 .......................................................................... 4 Unprecedented potential heroin production ............................................................................................. 4 The illegal seto of Afghaistas eoo apidl epanded in 2017 .................................................... 5 Many households newly engaged in opium poppy cultivation in 2017 ..................................................... 7 Insecurity and lack of government presence as drivers of cultivation ....................................................... 8 Opium poppy cultivation fuels instability by funding insurgency groups .................................................. 9 The way forward ......................................................................................................................................... 9 Part I: Causes and consequences of opium poppy cultivation 2017 ............................................................12 Setting the context ...................................................................................................................................12 The economy of opiates 2017 ..................................................................................................................13 Peace and security ....................................................................................................................................25 Heroin production 2017 and its economic value......................................................................................44 Part II: Statistical annex ................................................................................................................................53 The farm-gate value of the opium production .........................................................................................53 Labour for poppy harvesting and daily wages ..........................................................................................54 Replacement strategies of farmers who stopped cultivating opium poppy and change in income ........56 Self-reported reasons for cultivating opium poppy, for stopping and for never engaging in opium poppy cultivation .................................................................................................................................................57 Self-reported reasons for increasing or decreasing area under poppy cultivation ..................................59 Per-hectare income from opium and wheat ............................................................................................60 Security and government control .............................................................................................................61 Taxing of opium poppy and usher, by province and region .....................................................................62 Presence of more than one opium poppy harvest ...................................................................................65 Awareness campaigns against opium poppy ............................................................................................66 Opiate seizures in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan ...................................................................................67 Part III: Technical notes and methodology ...................................................................................................70 Village survey methodology .....................................................................................................................70 Heroin production estimates ....................................................................................................................73 Value of the opiate economy ...................................................................................................................77 2 Introduction The Afghanistan Opium Surveys are implemented annually by the Ministry of Counter Narcotics (MCN) of Afghanistan in collaboration with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The survey team collects and analyses information on the location and extent of opium poppy cultivation, potential opium production and the socio-economic situation in rural areas. The results provide a detailed picture of the outcome of the 2017 opium season and, together with data from previous years, enable the identification of medium- and long-term trends in the evolution of illicit opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. This information is essential for planning, implementing and monitoring the impact of measures required for tackling a problem that has serious implications for Afghanistan and the international community. The implementation of the survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field interviewers, who often faced difficult security conditions. The Afghanistan Opium Surveys 2017 were ipleeted ude pojet AFG/F, Moitoig of Opiu Podutio i Afghaista, ith fiaial otiutios fo the Goeets of Japa ad the Uited States of America. 3 Executive summary Area under opium poppy cultivation and opium production reached a new record high in 2017 In 2017, opium poppy cultivation increased sharply to an unprecedented record high of 328,000 hectares from an estimated 201,000 hectares in 2016. Between 2016 and 2017, the area under cultivation with opium poppy increased by 127,000 hectares – the increase alone exceeded the levels of annual cultivation of 2009 and 2010. Opium poppy cultivation increased strongly in almost all major poppy cultivating provinces. In Hilmand province alone, cultivation increased by 63,700 hectares (+79 per cent) which accounted for about half of the total national increase between 2016 and 2017. Strong increases were observed also in Balkh (+10,000 hectares or almost five times more than in 2016), Kandahar (+7,500 hectares or +37 per cent), Nimroz (+6,200 hectares or +116 per cent), and Uruzgan (+6,000 hectares or +39 per cent). Mainly caused by the increase in area under cultivation but as well due to good yields, potential opium production almost doubled from its 2016 level (4,800 tons) to 9,000 tons in 2017. Accounting for 57 per cent of national production, the Southern region continued to produce the vast majority of opium in Afghanistan, followed by the Northern (16 per cent of national production), Western (13 per cent) and Eastern regions (9 per cent). The MCN/UNODC epot Afghaista opiu sue – ultiatio ad podutio pesets a detailed regional and provincial data on area under cultivation, eradication, yields and production of opium. Reasons for the sharp increase between 2016 and 2017 There is no single reason for the massive 2017 increase in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. The multiple drivers are complex and geographically diverse, as many elements continue to influence faes deisios egadig opiu popp ultiatio. Rule of la-related challenges, such as political instability, lack of government control and security have been found to be main drivers of illicit cultivation. Socio-economic factors also ipat faes deisios, fo eaple sae eploet oppotuities, lak of quality education and limited access to markets and financial services continue to contribute to the vulnerability of farmers towards opium poppy cultivation. A combination of events may have exacerbated some of these elements and may have led to the large increase in 2017. The shift in strategy by the Afghan government - focusing its efforts against anti- government elements (AGE) in densely populated areas - may have made the rural population more vulnerable to the influence of AGE. Political instability and increased insecurity particularly affected the Northern region, where opium poppy cultivation expanded drastically over the last couple of years. Increased poverty and vulnerability towards external shocks, in combination with the economic down-turn after the withdrawal of the international troops, may have caused many farmers to resort to opium poppy cultivation to sustain their livelihoods. Unprecedented potential heroin production Each year thousands of tons of opium are produced in Afghanistan and then converted into heroin to reach end-consumer markets around the globe. With the record high of production in 2017, a wave of high quality, low cost heroin is expected to reach consumer markets across the world. All the opium produced in Afghanistan is either consumed as raw opium in and outside of Afghanistan or further processed into heroin, which is then traded to end-consumer markets across the world. For 2017, it can be estimated that 7,600 – 7,900 tons of opium were potentially available for heroin production and 4 1,100 – 1,400