Clean Sky 2 Technology Evaluator First Global Assessment 2020 - Technical Report May 2021 Page intentionally blank Page | 2 Legal disclaimer / Copyright Note The copyright for this document belongs to the Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking. It contains proprietary information not to be distributed/reproduced/disclosed without prior written authorisation of the CS2JU. Any unauthorised use of the information contained in this document is prohibited. TE_1st_GA_2020_Tech_Rep_v6.pdf Page | 3 Table of Contents List of Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................... 6 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................................... 9 List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................... 12 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 13 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 21 2 Technology Evaluator .................................................................................................................... 23 2.1. Overall Assessment Timeline ..................................................................................................... 24 2.2. First Assessment – Interim Results ............................................................................................. 24 2.3. Key Indicators and Metrics ......................................................................................................... 24 2.3. Preliminary Note on COVID Impact ............................................................................................ 26 3 A Vision for the Future .................................................................................................................. 27 3.1 Concept Aircraft .................................................................................................................... 29 3.2 Reference Aircraft ................................................................................................................. 31 4 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 32 4.1 Assessment at three Levels: Mission, Airport and Global Fleet ............................................ 32 4.2 Forecast and Scenarios .......................................................................................................... 32 4.2.1 Overall Assumptions and Airport Capacity Constraints ................................................ 33 4.2.2 Passenger and Flight Volumes ....................................................................................... 36 4.2.1 Aircraft In Service .......................................................................................................... 37 4.2.2 Aircraft Size .................................................................................................................... 38 5 Environmental Impact ................................................................................................................... 40 5.1 Mission Level ......................................................................................................................... 40 5.1.1 Fixed-Wing Aircraft ........................................................................................................ 41 5.1.2 Fast Rotorcraft ............................................................................................................... 77 5.1.3 Synthesis of Interim Results at Mission Level ............................................................... 94 5.2 Airport Level .......................................................................................................................... 96 5.3 Fleet Level (ATS) .................................................................................................................... 98 5.3.1 Fleet Replacement ......................................................................................................... 98 5.3.2 Towards Larger Aircraft ................................................................................................. 99 5.3.3 Towards Shorter Range ............................................................................................... 102 5.3.4 CO2 and NOx impact at fleet level ................................................................................ 107 6 Societal Impact ............................................................................................................................ 109 6.1 Connectivity and Mobility ................................................................................................... 109 6.2 Macroeconomic Effect ........................................................................................................ 111 6.3 Competitiveness and Societal Impact ................................................................................. 113 Page | 4 7 Impact of COVID-19 ..................................................................................................................... 116 8 Outlook towards the Second Assessment ................................................................................... 118 9 Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 122 Page | 5 List of Acronyms Acronym Definition a/c aircraft AEO All Engine Operative AHF Airport Hub Feeder AIR Clean Sky 2 Airframe ITD ATAG Air Transport Action Group BPR By-Pass Ratio CDR Critical Design Review CfP Call for Proposals CFRP Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic CGT Cargo Transport CIT Commercial Intercity Transportation CO2 Carbon Dioxide CP Core Partner CS2 Clean Sky 2 CS2JU Clean Sky 2 Joint Undertaking dB decibel dB(A) decibels on the A Scale EIS Entry Into Service ENG Clean Sky 2 Engine ITD EPNL Effective Perceived Noise Level in decibels (EPNdB) ECO Clean Sky 2 Eco-Design Transversal Activity EMS Emergency Medical Services fpm feet per minute ft feet FL Flight Level FRC Clean Sky 2 Fast RotorCraft IADP FSW Friction Stir Welding FTB Flying Test Bed GAM Grant Agreement for Members GAP Grant Agreement for Partners HLD High Lift Device IADP Innovative Aircraft Demonstration Platform ICAO CAEP International Civil Aviation Organization – Civil Aviation Environmental Protection IFR Instrument Flight Rules IPPS Integrated Power Plant System ISA International Standard Atmosphere ITD Integrated Technology Demonstrator kft kilo-feet kg kilogram km kilometer KPI Key Performance Indicator Page | 6 Acronym Definition KTAS Knots True Air Speed LAMAX A-weighted maximum sound Level Lden Day-evening-night acoustic level Lnight Night acoustic level LMD Laser Metal Deposition LFL Landing Field Length LPA Clean Sky 2 Large Passenger Aircraft IADP LR Long Range LRI Liquid Resin Infusion m meter Ma Mach number MLW Maximum Landing Weight MTOW Maximum Take-Off Weight MZFW Maximum Zero Fuel Weight n/a not available nm nautical miles nvPM non volatile Particulate Matter NGCTR Next Generation Civil Tilt Rotor NOx Nitrogen Oxides OAG Oil And Gas OoA Out of Autoclave OEI One Engine Inoperative OEW Operative Empty Weight Pax Passenger PAT Passenger Air Transport RACER Rapid And Cost Effective Rotorcraft REG Clean Sky 2 Regional IADP SAR Search And Rescue SAT Clean Sky 2 Small Air Transport Transversal Activity SEL Sound Exposure Level SELA Sound Exposure Level dB(A) SFWA Clean Sky 1 Smart Fixed Wing Aircraft IADP SL Sea Level SMR Small Medium Range SoA State-of-the-Art SOx Sulfur Oxides SPD Clean Sky 2 Strategic Platform Demonstrator STOL Short Take-Off and Landing SYS Clean Sky 2 Systems ITD TA Clean Sky 2 Transversal Activity (SAT – ECO – TE) TE Clean Sky 2 Technology Evaluator TLAR Top Level Aircraft Requirements Page | 7 Acronym Definition TOFL Take-Off Field Length TP TurboProp engine USF Unducted Single Fan engine VOC Volatile Organic Compound VPF Variable Pitch Fan engine VTOL Vertical Take-Off and Landing Page | 8 List of Figures Figure 1 - Schematic Structure of the Clean Sky 2 Programme. ........................................................... 21 Figure 2 – Clean Sky 2 Key Demonstrators. ........................................................................................... 22 Figure 3 – Information flow from the SPDs through the Technology Evaluator to the Clean Sky 2 JU. 23 Figure 4 - Metrics, levels and dimensions of the TE assessment. ......................................................... 24 Figure 5 – Emissions from a typical two-engine jet aircraft during 1-hour flight with 150 passengers. Source: European Aviation Environmental Report 2019. ..................................................................... 25 Figure 6 - Illustrations of the main Clean Sky 2 aircraft concepts. ........................................................ 28 Figure 7 - Assessment levels. ................................................................................................................. 32 Figure 8 - Comparison of Forecast and Scenarios to other available air traffic predictions. ................ 33 Figure 9 – Aircraft retirement curves. ..................................................................................................