,...- "'<;.' Ull C.:~Ul" U I .: ..2l. '\:: Central S GkJ ~ Intelligence ~~ Soviet Wartime Management: The Role of Civil Defense in Leadership Continuity Interagency Intelligence Memorandum Volume II-Analysis CIA HISTORiCAL REViEW PROGRAM RELEASE AS SANITIZED Tett Seeret Nll!M 8J-10005JX TCS J6tJI~J December 1983 rn"'' ~,... .._ Top Seuei Nl liM 83-10005JX SOVIET WARTIME MANAGEMENT: THE ROLE OF CIVIL DEF~NSE IN LEADERSHIP CONTINUITY VOLUME II-ANALYSIS Information available as of 25 October 1983 was used in the preparation of this Memorandum. TG& &GQl 8& TeF3 6cu et Tep Sec•o4 CONTENTS Page PURPOSE AND SCOPE....................................................................................... ix KEY JUDGMENTS ............................................................................................... 1 CHAPTER I. SOVIET STRATEGY FOR WARTIME MANAGEMENT...... I-1 A. Soviet Perceptions of Nuclear War ........................................................ I-1 B. Organizational Concepts.......................................................................... I-I CHAPTER II. WARTIME MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE........................... Il-l A. Influence of World War II ............................... :...................................... Il-l B. Peacetime Organizations and F~nctions ................................................ Il-l C. Organizations for the Transition to Wartime........................................ II-7 USSR Defense Council ........................................................................ II-7 Second Departments .................. ................................... ....................... II-8 USSR Civil Defense ............................................................................. Il-8 Military Districts.................................................................................. II-11 Military Commissariats........................................................................ II-12 CHAPTER III. WARTIME MANAGEMENT OPERATIONS........................ III-1 A. Functions and Requirements ................................................................. III-I National Level ..................................................................................... III-I Territorial Levels ................................................................................ III-11 Other Territorial Organizations ......................................................... III-18 Ex urban Facility Requirements ......................................................... III-19 B. Wartime Leadership ............................................................................... III-19 C. Wartime Operations ............................................................................... III-20 The Command Post Network ............................................................ III-21 Concept of Operations ........................................................................ III-21 CHAPTER IV. TYPES OF LEADERSHIP PROTECTION AND RELOCATION FACILITIES ............................................................................. IV-I A. Urban Facilities ....................................................................................... IV-1 B. Exurban Facilities ................................................................................... IV-4 Single-Purpose Facilities ..................................................................... IV-5 Dual-Purpose Facilities ....................................................................... IV-11 C. Costs ......................................................................................................... IV-22 iii res see1 sa Tep oeuel -fop secret Page CHAPTER V. MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE OF SOVIET WARTIME MANAGEMENT................................................................................................... V-1 A. Progress in Meeting Relocation Facility Requirements........................ V-1 National Level...................................................................................... V-1 Territorial Levels ................................................................................. V-5 B. Survivability of Relocation Facilities...................................................... V-12 Camouflage, Concealment, and Deception........................................ V-12 Physical Vulnerability ...................................................... :................... V-12 Active Defense....................................................................................... V-25 C. Communications Support........................................................................ V-27 Ministry of Communications .............................................................. V-29 Ministry of Defense ............................................................................. V-31 KGB Directorate of Government Communications (UPS) ............... V-32 Other Ministries . .. ........ .... ......... ... ... .... .. ..... .. ......... .. ..... .. ... .... .. ... V-32 D. Exercises and Training............................................................................ V-32 Installations........................................................................................... V-32 Oblasts and Subordinate Cities and Rayons ...................................... V-34 Republics ................................ :·............................................................. V-34 General Staff and Military Districts ................................................... V-34 E. Susceptibility to Attack............................................................................ V-37 CHAPTER VI. TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS............................................. VI-1 Annex A: Methodology for Manpower Estimate................................................ A-1 Annex B: Methodology for Estimating Wartime Leadership Strength ............ B-1 Annex C: Methodology for Vulnerability Analysis of Shallow-Buried Flat-Roof Bunkers ............................................................................... C-1 Annex D: Tabular Data........................................................................................ D-1 Annex E: Alphabetical List of Installations......................................................... E-1 Annex F: Selected Bibliography .......................................................................... F-1 Annex G: Glossary................................................................................................. G-1 TABLES l. Size of the Soviet Wartime Leadership ................................................ 5 2. Soviet War Management Activities at Various Readiness Stages ........ 6 3. Soviet Leadership Relocation Facilities ................................................ 7 4. Vulnerability of Structures at Representative Soviet Leadership Relocation Facilities ........................................................................... .. ll Il-l. Estimated Full-Time Soviet Civil Defense Personnel... ...................... .. Il-11 III-1. Civil Defense Roles for Selected Support and Service Ministries ...... .. III-5 III-2. Ministerial Support of Civil Defense Services ...................................... III-15 III-3. Projected Requirements for Wartime Relocation Facilities ................ III-19 iv TCS 8681 88 Te13 5cucl ..-Tiip! iieeret Page III-4. Size of the Soviet Wartime Leadership ................................................ III-20 111-5. Estimated Wartime Staff Support Requirements of Civilian Leaders III-21 III-6. Soviet War Management Activities at Various Readiness Stages ........ III-23 IV-1. Soviet Leadership Relocation Facilities Identified ............................... IV-5 IV -2. Construction and Equipment Costs of Selected Leadership Facilities in Urban Areas .................................................................................... IV-27 IV -3. Construction ·and Equipment Costs of Selected Soviet Relocation · Facilities ............................................................ ;................................ .. IV-28 IV-4. Construction and Equipment Costs of Identified Soviet Leadership Relocation Facilities by Echelon ...................................................... .. IV-29 IV ·5. Construction and Equipment Costs of Projected Soviet Relocation Facilities .............................................................................................. IV-29 V-1. Progress in Meeting Relocation Requirements .................................... .. V-2 V-2. Single-Purpose Exurban Command Posts Meeting Wartime Requirements of Military Districts .................................................... V-10 V-3. Severe Damage Overpressure Required To Damage Representative Soviet Leadership Relocation Facilities ........................................... .. V-18 V-4. Fallout Radiation Protection Factor for Personnel in Structures at Relocation Facilities ............................................ .' ............................... V-24 V-5. Relocation Complexes, Moscow Area: Date of Initial Construction Compared to Distance From Moscow .............................................. .. V-26 V-6. Vulnerability of Structures at Representative Soviet Leadership Relocation Facilities ............................................................................ V-37 v TG£ 8681-B~ Top Seer et vi vii Tap Secret Tap Sec1 et PURPOSE AND SCOPE National intelligence issuances on Soviet civil defense have ad­ dressed the objectives, scope, and pace of the program and its likely ef­ fectiveness