RESEARCH SERIES NUMBER 97 RUGBY IN IRELAND: A STATISTICAL November 2019 ANALYSIS OF PARTICIPATION PETE LUNN AND ELISH KELLY FO NCE R PO DE LI VI C E Y RUGBY IN IRELAND: A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF PARTICIPATION Pete Lunn Elish Kelly November 2019 Available to download from www.esri.ie The Economic and Social Research Institute Whitaker Square, Sir John Rogerson’s Quay, Dublin 2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26504/rs97.pdf ISBN: 978-0-7070-0510-2 This Open Access work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. ABOUT THE ESRI The mission of the Economic and Social Research Institute is to advance evidence-based policymaking that supports economic sustainability and social progress in Ireland. ESRI researchers apply the highest standards of academic excellence to challenges facing policymakers, focusing on 12 areas of critical importance to 21st century Ireland. The Institute was founded in 1960 by a group of senior civil servants led by Dr T.K. Whitaker, who identified the need for independent and in-depth research analysis to provide a robust evidence base for policymaking in Ireland. Since then, the Institute has remained committed to independent research and its work is free of any expressed ideology or political position. The Institute publishes all research reaching the appropriate academic standard, irrespective of its findings or who funds the research. The quality of its research output is guaranteed by a rigorous peer review process. ESRI researchers are experts in their fields and are committed to producing work that meets the highest academic standards and practices. The work of the Institute is disseminated widely in books, journal articles and reports. ESRI publications are available to download, free of charge, from its website. Additionally, ESRI staff communicate research findings at regular conferences and seminars. The ESRI is a company limited by guarantee, answerable to its members and governed by a Council, comprising 14 members who represent a cross- section of ESRI members from academia, civil services, state agencies, businesses and civil society. The Institute receives an annual grant-in-aid from the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform to support the scientific and public interest elements of the Institute’s activities; the grant accounted for an average of 30 per cent of the Institute’s income over the lifetime of the last Research Strategy. The remaining funding comes from research programmes supported by government departments and agencies, public bodies and competitive research programmes. Further information is available at www.esri.ie THE AUTHORS Pete Lunn is an Associate Research Professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) and Elish Kelly is a Senior Research Officer at the ESRI. Both members of the research team hold adjunct research positions at Trinity College Dublin (TCD). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank Scott Walker at the Irish Rugby Football Union (IRFU) for his commitment to generating and understanding objective statistical evidence. We are grateful to Sport Ireland for assistance in accessing data. We also thank the regional domestic rugby managers for feedback on initial results and drafts. We are grateful to audience members at IRFU seminars and committee meetings for helpful ideas and comments in relation to the results presented. We also thank Peter Smyth and Dr David Duffy for insightful comments on drafts. Any mistakes or omissions are our own. CONTENTS Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................i Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Data ........................................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Demographic context and statistical methods .......................................................... 5 1.3 Limitations ................................................................................................................. 8 Chapter 2: Results ..................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 What proportion of individuals play rugby?.............................................................. 9 2.2 What is the age profile of rugby players? ............................................................... 10 2.3 How male is rugby? ................................................................................................. 17 2.4 How strong is the socio-economic influence on playing rugby? ............................. 18 2.5 Does the pattern of participation vary by region? .................................................. 22 2.6 FITT analysis ............................................................................................................. 25 2.7 Social participation .................................................................................................. 32 Chapter 3: Conclusions ............................................................................................................ 39 3.1 Statistical findings .................................................................................................... 39 3.2 Policy Implications ................................................................................................... 40 Appendix A .............................................................................................................................. 45 Appendix B............................................................................................................................... 46 Appendix C ............................................................................................................................... 47 Appendix D .............................................................................................................................. 50 References ............................................................................................................................... 57 LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1 Five data sources employed in this report ............................................................ 3 Table C1 Determinants of rugby participation in RoI: all (coefficients) ............................. 47 Table D1 Determinants of rugby membership in RoI: all (coefficients) ............................. 50 Table D2 Determinants of rugby attendance in RoI: all (coefficients) ............................... 53 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1 Population by individual year of age in 2016 (RoI) ............................................ 5 Figure 1.2 Population by individual year of age in 2011 (NI) ............................................. 6 Figure 2.1 Basic participation rates in rugby from five surveys ......................................... 9 Figure 2.2 The changing age profile of rugby players (RoI) .............................................. 11 Figure 2.3 Age profile of adult rugby players by year (RoI) .............................................. 13 Figure 2.4 North–South comparison of the age profile of adult rugby players ............... 14 Figure 2.5 Comparison of age profiles of adult players of rugby, soccer, Gaelic football and hurling (RoI) .............................................................................................. 16 Figure 2.6 Rugby players by gender ................................................................................. 17 Figure 2.7 Odds ratios for adults playing rugby by educational attainment (RoI) .......... 20 Figure 2.8 Odds ratios for adults playing rugby by income (RoI) ..................................... 21 Figure 2.9 Participation rate by region (RoI) .................................................................... 23 Figure 2.10 Regional comparison (Leinster and Munster only) of odds ratios for playing rugby by educational attainment (RoI) ........................................................... 24 Figure 2.11 Regional comparison of odds ratios for playing rugby by income (RoI) ......... 25 Figure 2.12 Motivations for active participation in team sports (RoI) ............................... 27 Figure 2.13 Frequency of active participation in rugby (RoI) ............................................. 28 Figure 2.14 Intensity of sessions of active participation in rugby (RoI) ............................. 29 Figure 2.15 Duration of sessions of active participation in rugby (RoI) ............................. 30 Figure 2.16 Context for active participation in rugby (RoI) ................................................ 31 Figure 2.17 Proportion of active participation in rugby accounted for by ‘touch’ or ‘tag’ rugby (RoI) ....................................................................................................... 32 Figure 2.18 Social participation in rugby (RoI) ................................................................... 33 Figure 2.19 Comparison of active and social participation rates in rugby by gender (RoI) 34 Figure 2.20 Comparison of age profiles for active and social participation (RoI) .............. 35 Figure 2.21 Odds ratios for active and social participation in rugby by educational attainment (RoI) .............................................................................................