MARKET ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR WATER HEATING SYSTEMS IN FIVE POTENTIAL STATES/NCR REGION Final Report Submitted to Project Management Unit UNDP/GEF Assisted Global Solar Water Heating Project Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Government of India 10 February, 2011 Submitted by: Greentech Knowledge Solutions (P) Ltd. New Delhi -110078 (India) Website: www.greentechsolution.co.in Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region PROJECT TEAM Core Team Dr Sameer Maithel, Greentech Knowledge Solutions (GKS), New Delhi Mr Shailesh Modi, Fourth Vision Consultants (FVC), Ahmedabad Mr Minhaj Ameen, EvalueS, Auroville Mr Prashant Bhanware, GKS, New Delhi Mr Rahul Rai, GKS, New Delhi Regional Teams North Dr Sameer Maithel, Mr Prashant Bhanware, Mr Gaurav Malhotara & Mr Rahul Rai, GKS, New Delhi Mr Richard Sequeira, Solenge India, Gurgaon South Mr Minhaj Ameen, Mr Arijit Mitra, Mr Erik Conesa, EvalueS, Auroville West Mr Shailesh Modi, Mr Vimal Suthar, Mr Mihir Vyas, Mr Vipin Thakur, Prof. Mahesh Shelar, Mr Haresh Patel, FVC, Ahmedabad Greentech Knowledge Solutions ii Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region ACKNOWLEDGEMNETS The project team would like to sincerely thank Dr Bibek Bandyopadhyay, Advisor and Head, MNRE and Mr Ajit Gupta, National Project Manager, UNDP/GEF Global Solar Water Heating Project for their guidance during the entire duration of the project. Periodic review meetings organized by the Project Management Unit helped immensely in shaping the study. We are also grateful to the members of the Project Executive Committee as well as participants of the stakeholders‟ consultation workshop for their suggestions and inputs. During the course of the study, we had the opportunity to interact with a large number of solar water heater manufacturers/dealers, the project team would like to thank them for sharing their knowledge and insights about the SWH market. The study relied heavily on interactions with a wide range of stakeholders, such as, SWH users, potential SWH users, state level renewable energy development agencies, architects and builders, banks, municipal corporations, electricity distribution companies, pollution control boards. Our special thanks go to all of them for sparing their valuable time to interact with us and for sharing their experiences, perceptions and thoughts on the subject. Greentech Knowledge Solutions iii Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region Executive Summary 1.0 Background and Objective The country-wide Market Assessment Study of Solar Water Heaters carried out in 2009 under the UNDP/GEF Project identified high potential States and Regions. This study focuses on five states/regions which are likely to contribute 49% of the SWH realizable potential up to 2022. These are: Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh National Capital Region (NCR) The specific objectives of the study are: Understanding the hot water demand; penetration and economics of solar water heaters in the identified States/NCR Region and high potential cities covering residential, commercial and institutional sectors Projection of future demand and assessment of the realizable market potential for 2013, 2017 and 2022. Preparation of Action Plans for the States / NCR region for increasing the penetration of SWH systems. 2.0 Work Organization Greentech Knowledge Solution is the lead consultants who coordinated the study and carried out work in NCR. Fourth Vision, Ahmedabad, was responsible for fieldwork and analysis for Gujarat and Maharashtra, while EvalueS, Auroville organized fieldwork and analysis for Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The consultants developed and utilized common methodology and worked in close consultation with one another. Based on initial discussion with MNRE, we have focused on three lead cities in each state to generate state level market appreciation. 3.0 Methodology In addition to secondary research, we utilized the following instruments for the study. Interaction with stakeholders in 15 cities(selected cities are shown in figure below)- SWH manufacturers, dealers, integrators, SNA-officials, municipal corporation/urban development authority officials, real estate developers, architects, bank managers, dealers of competing water-heating devices Greentech Knowledge Solutions iv Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region Primary survey of 480 residential users and non-users of SWH and 405 non- residential users and non-users of SWH. 100 case-studies of SWH-users-households, hotels, hospitals, hostels, institutions, swimming pool etc The analysis integrates findings from above streams of fieldwork. We organized, once draft findings were ready, stakeholder consultation workshop at Pune, Ahmedabad, Chennai and Hyderabad (November, 2010) and the feedback/suggestions are incorporated in the report. 4.0 Approach to Demand Projection The current level of SWH penetration vis-à-vis the key segment in the 15 cities is the beginning premise. The segments are Independent housing Apartment housing Hotels/guest-houses Hospitals Hostels/other establishment The work on industrial segment was carried out under a separate MNRE-sponsored study. For other five segments, our projection utilizes current level of segment-specific SWH penetration and the following parameters Climate Public awareness Economic viability of SWH Public policy Credit status/culture Supply and maintenance conditions 5.0 Profile of the Five States The important data on population and economics of the five states/NCR region is presented below. It should be noted that the selected states have some of the highest per capita incomes and highest rate of urbanization in the country. Greentech Knowledge Solutions v Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region Maharashtra Gujarat Tamil Andhra NCR Nadu Pradesh Area (km2) 3,08,000 1,96,024 1,30,058 2,75,045 33,578 Population (2001) „000 97,476 50,671 62,406 76,210 37,100 Share of urban population 2001 (%) 42 34 45 27 - Estimated Population (2011) „000 1,13,179 59,020 67,444 84,735 48,619 Share of urban population 2011 (%) 46 42 55 28 - Growth in GSDP At Current Price 11.57 13.83 11 12.73 - 2000-01 to 2008-09 (%) Per Capita Income (Rs.) (2003-04) 16,479 16,779 12,976 11,333 - Decadal Growth in Population (%) Total 1991-2001 22.73 22.66 11.72 14.59 28.43 Total 2001-2011 (estimated) 16 16.48 8.1 11.2 31 Urban 1991-2001 (estimated) 26 30.94 31.5 13.2 - 6.0 Lead Cities for the Study We have based our market-assessment on extensive secondary research for the whole state and primary research focused on 15 cities. A demographic perspective on these cities is given in the table and these cities are shown on the solar radiation map of India below. Population (actual and estimate, lakh) Decadal Growth (%) 2001 2011 2021 2001-2011 2011-2021 Ahmedabad 46 69 90 50 30 Surat 28.76 46.73 69.48 63 49 Rajkot 9.67 15.7 22.15 62 41 Nashik 10.77 17.5 26 62 49 Nagpur 20.48 28.6 36.08 40 26 Pune - 61.1 84.8 - 39 Hyderabad 70 77.2 91.2 10 18 Vijayawada 10.33 14.47 19.91 40 38 Vishakhapatnam 22.02 30.58 34.99 39 14 Chennai 82.4 88.79 111.97 8 26 Madurai 9.29 12.82 14.56 38 14 Coimbatore 9.3 10.91 12.88 17 18 NCR 371 486.19 641.38 31 32 Delhi 138.5 179.9 234.8 30 31 Gurgaon - 26 37 - 42 Noida/Greater Noida 6.05 13.00 24.00 115 85 Greentech Knowledge Solutions vi Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region The report provides details of area, urban design and economy for each city. Among cities, the definition of following cities deserves a special mention. Pune city, for the purpose of the study, consists of Pune Municipal Corporation, Pimpari-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation, Pune Cantonment and Khadki Cantonment. Hyderabad city, further purpose of the study means Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation. 7.0 Existing SWH Base The market- assessment underscores the following volume of present SWH base (2010). These volume estimates are based on information collected from SWH manufacturers, dealers, and associations representing end-user segments, SNAs and assessment of the field teams. Greentech Knowledge Solutions vii Final Report: Market Assessment of Solar Water Heating Systems in Five Potential States / NCR Region SWH Installation (m2) Hostels+ Residential Hotels Hospitals Total Others Gujarat 1,30,000 7,000 2,000 11,000 1,50,000 Maharashtra 6,27,000 15,000 4,000 15,000 6,61,000 Andhra Pradesh 42,000 14,000 4,000 11,000 71,000 Tamil Nadu 74,000 36,000 3,000 2,000 1,15,000 NCR 16,000 7,000 16,000 21,000 60,000 TOTAL 8,89,000 79,000 29,000 60,000 10,57,000 8.0 Policy and Credit Environment MNRE is now operating a country-wide capital subsidy and soft loan scheme in respect of SWH. The main instruments of policy at the state/city level are mandatory regulation (compulsion) for SWH for new residential and commercial buildings, municipal property tax, state subsidy in addition to the MNRE subsidy and electricity rebate. The position at the study locations is as follows. SWH Compulsion Policy Municipal Implementation Property Electricity Bank Independent Apartment Commercial of Compulsory Cities Tax Rebate Credit Housing Housing Buildings Policy Rebate Ahmedabad × × × Not Relevant × × Negligible Surat × × × Not Relevant × × Negligible Rajkot √ √ √ Effective √ × Negligible Nashik × × √ Not effective √ × Excellent Nagpur √ √ √ Not effective √ × Excellent Pune √  √  √  Effective √ × Limited Hyderabad × √ ⌂ √ ⌂ Not effective × × Negligible Vijayawada × √ ⌂ √ ⌂ Was Effective × × Negligible Vishakhapatnam × √ ⌂ √ ⌂ Not effective × × Negligible Chennai × × × Not Relevant × × Negligible Madurai × × × Not Relevant × × Negligible Coimbatore × × × Not Relevant × × Negligible Delhi √ × √ Effective* × × Negligible Gurgaon √ √ √ Not effective × √ Negligible Noida/Greater × × √ × √ Not effective Negligible Noida It is formally compulsory in Pimpri Chinchwad.