The Climates of the North Coast: Focus on Lake County Gregory V. Jones Department of Environmental Studies June 4, 2013 Outline of Talk . Overview of the General Climate Characteristics of the Western US, the North Coast, and Lake County . West Coast Climate Variability Mechanisms . Current Situation and 2013 Vintage Forecast Climate Influences, Risks, and Challenges Weather and Climate present three distinct spatial and temporal scales of influences and risks to viticulture and wine production: . Individual Weather Events (short-term/localized) Crop Risk – Hail, frost/freezes, heavy rain, etc. Production . Climate Variability (seasonal-decadal/regionalized) – Dry or wet & warm or cold periods & Quality Variability . Climate Structure/Change (long-term/regional-global) – Average & extreme temperatures, rainfall regimes Suitability – Warming, cooling, changes in moisture regimes Climate Structure of the Western US, the North Coast, and Lake County Spatial Analysis in Winegrape Growing Regions in the Western US –Digitized AVA Boundaries –131 complete AVAs used (approved or pending as of 2008) –Produced complete AVA area, elevation, and climate index summaries (10-400 m resolution) –Examined the usefullness of different climate indices in the Western US –Similar work is done or in process for other wine regions worldwide Jones et al. (AJEV: Sept 2010, 61:313-326) Growing Degree-Days (1971-2000) . General AVA Statistics: – Overall median GDD = 3087 – Lowest median GDD = 1530 – Highest median GDD = 4520 – Median class structure over all AVAs: Class Count % (Region I) 1500-2500 23 17.0 Growing Degree-Days (Base 50°F, Apr-Oct) (Region II) 2500-3000 34 25.2 < 1500 (Region III) 3000-3500 44 32.6 1500 – 2500 (Region I) 2500 – 3000 (Region II) (Region IV) 3500-4000 25 18.5 3000 – 3500 (Region III) (Region V) 4000-4900 9 6.7 3500 – 4000 (Region IV) 4000 – 4900 (Region V) > 4900 . Spatial distribution within AVAs depends on elevation differences, and proximity and orientation to coast . Temporal distribution is +/- 325-500 GDD off the median (>75% of the time) Jones et al. (AJEV: Sept 2010, 61:313-326) AVA Growing Degree-Days Distributions Histogram of Winkler Region GDD Cells by AVA Histogram of Winkler Region GDD Cells by AVA 1100 6000 1000 900 5000 GDD 1% Region I 30% Region IV GDD 800 < 850 < 850 700 100% Region I 4000 12% Region II 1% Region V 850 - 1389 850 - 1389 600 30001389 - 166756% Region III 1389 - 1667 500 1667 - 1944 1667 - 1944 400 20001944 - 2222 GDD1944 - 2222 300 2222 - 2700 2222 - 2700 NumberCellsGrid of 200 NumberCellsGrid of 1000> 2700 > 2700 100 < 1500 0 0 1500 - 2500 HistogramEola-Amity of WinklerEola-Amity Region Hills GDD AVA Cells AVA by AVA HistogramNapa of Winkler NapaValley Region Valley GDD AVA AVA Cells by AVA 25000 7000 2500 - 3000 6000 3000 - 3500 20000 GDD GDD 2% Too Cold 5000 14% Region II < 850 < 850 3500 - 4000 15000 78% Region I 4000850 - 138949% Region III 850 - 1389 1389 - 1667 1389 - 1667 10000 20% Region II 30001667 - 194437% Region IV 1667 - 40001944 - 4900 1944 - 2222 1944 - 2222 20002222 - 2700 2222 - >2700 4900 5000 NumberCellsGrid of NumberCellsGrid of 1000> 2700 > 2700 0 0 HistogramRogue of WinklerRogue RegionValley Valley GDD AVA AVA Cells by AVA HistogramPaso of Winkler PasoRobles Region Robles GDD AVA AVA Cells by AVA 7000 9000 6000 8000 7000GDD GDD 5000 6000< 850 < 850 850 - 1389 850 - 1389 4000 18% Region I 5000 78% Region IV 1389 - 1667 1389 - 1667 3000 82% Region II 40001667 - 194412% Region V 1667 - 1944 30001944 - 2222 1944 - 2222 2000 2222 - 2700 2222 - 2700 Growing Degree-Days 2000 (Base 50°F, Apr-Oct) NumberCellsGrid of 1000 NumberCellsGrid of > 2700 > 2700 < 1500 1000 1500 – 2500 (Region I) 2500 – 3000 (Region II) 0 0 3000 – 3500 (Region III) 3500 – 4000 (Region IV) 4000 – 4900 (Region V) > 4900 HistogramWalla of WallaWinklerWalla Walla Region Valley Valley Cells AVA byAVA AVA Histogram of WinklerLodi RegionLodi AVA AVA GDD Cells by AVA 900 12000 800 10000 700 26% Region I GDD GDD 600 58% Region II 8000< 850 100% Region V < 850 850 - 1389 850 - 1389 500 16% Region III 60001389 - 1667 1389 - 1667 400 1667 - 1944 1667 - 1944 300 40001944 - 2222 1944 - 2222 2222 - 2700 200 2222 - 2700 NumberCellsGrid of NumberCellsGrid of 2000> 2700 > 2700 100 0 0 AndersonAnderson Valley Valley AVA AVA MaderaMadera AVA AVA Jones et al. (AJEV: Sept 2010, 61:313-326) Elevation (ft) Area1 AVA AVA Name (hectares) Median Max Min Range Benmore Valley 580 2598 2795 2116 679 Area (ha) Red Hills Lake County 12560 2037 3611 1381 2230 High Valley 6970 1971 3339 1332 2007 Howell Mountain 5300 1745 2552 1027 1525 and Covelo 16210 1597 2699 1397 1302 Cole Ranch 80 1555 1719 1496 223 Clear Lake 88750 1548 3956 1309 2647 Elevation (ft) Atlas Peak 5040 1512 2470 856 1614 Dos Rios 6760 1460 2726 823 1902 Mendocino Ridge 33970 1407 2558 459 2099 Rockpile 5970 1401 2227 800 1427 Spring Mountain District 3440 1358 2293 531 1761 York Mountain 2590 1332 1814 1086 728 Mendocino 71540 1230 3736 407 3329 Wild Horse Valley 1600 1223 1620 830 790 Potter Valley 11760 1155 3021 892 2129 Redwood Valley 13050 1148 2404 797 1607 Mt. Veeder 6880 1115 2549 367 2181 Guenoc Valley 1700 1059 1581 974 607 Chiles Valley 2600 1027 1633 797 836 Capay Valley 40140 1007 2926 197 2729 Diamond Mountain 2010 1004 2083 531 1551 North Coast 1323670 981 5330 0 5330 Sonoma Mountain 2350 876 1784 479 1305 Knights Valley 15110 843 3890 213 3677 Napa Valley 162390 813 3854 0 3854 McDowell Valley 910 804 1036 604 433 Dry Creek Valley 31540 794 2326 82 2244 Sonoma Valley 47020 738 2398 0 2398 Anderson Valley 23620 712 1758 197 1561 Bennett Valley 3370 705 1568 249 1319 Northern Sonoma 130850 633 3890 82 3808 Alexander Valley 31690 485 2447 157 2289 Calistoga 5180 469 1273 282 991 Solano Co Green Valley 5650 453 2011 16 1994 Chalk Hill 9140 338 403 338 66 St. Helena 3730 292 646 194 453 Sonoma Co Green Valley 7720 289 810 92 718 Yountville 3370 266 1174 59 1115 Sonoma Coast 212390 249 2145 0 2145 Russian River Valley 63170 203 1437 49 1387 Dunnigan Hills 27120 197 400 46 354 Coombsville 4640 187 1483 3 1479 Rutherford 3030 180 912 157 754 Oakville 2810 167 912 157 754 Stags Leap District 1240 112 417 66 351 Los Carneros 15130 95 1246 0 1246 Oak Knoll District 4010 92 886 23 863 Susiun Valley 6670 79 518 3 515 Area (ha) Elevation (ft) Area and AVA Name (ha) Elevation (ft) Median Max Min Range Benmore Valley 580 2598 2795 2116 679 Guenoc Valley 1700 1059 1581 974 607 High Valley 6970 1971 3339 1332 2007 Red Hills Lake County 12560 2037 3611 1381 2230 Clear Lake 88750 1548 3956 1309 2647 . ~200 growers . ~8500 acres planted . The majority of the vineyards are planted above 1,500 ft . Cabernet Sauvignon, Sauvignon Blanc, Petite Sirah, Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc, Zinfandel, Tempranillo, Chardonnay, Riesling, and many other varieties planted . ~35 wineries Growing Degree-Days (base 50°F) AVA Growing AVA Name Min 25% Median 75% Max Range Sonoma Coast 850 2304 2596 2754 3404 2554 Degree-Days Sonoma Co Green Valley 2560 2669 2693 2707 2774 214 Mendocino Ridge 1951 2479 2701 2795 3069 1118 Russian River Valley 2425 2686 2736 2770 3233 808 (F° units) Anderson Valley 2257 2520 2759 2934 3191 934 Bennett Valley 2637 2831 2860 2909 3069 432 Median = 3218 Yorkville Highlands 2639 2797 2882 3087 3456 817 North Coast 736 2655 2938 3224 4034 3298 Stdev = 321 Chalk Hill 2768 2882 2941 3029 3386 617 Los Carneros 2695 2867 2947 3069 3649 954 Max = 4217 Dos Rios 2848 2929 2963 3002 3308 461 Northern Sonoma 1903 2758 3002 3157 3541 1638 Min = 2596 Howell Mountain 2894 2986 3015 3092 3537 643 Sonoma Valley 2468 2878 3017 3139 3431 963 Range = 1622 Covelo 2772 2965 3020 3101 3258 486 Redwood Valley 2675 2916 3035 3211 3332 657 Rockpile 2952 3044 3074 3116 3254 302 Potter Valley 2779 2981 3076 3206 3278 499 Cole Ranch 3062 3065 3084 3103 3103 41 Atlas Peak 2601 2983 3098 3164 3562 961 Dry Creek Valley 2617 3020 3103 3163 3280 662 Alexander Valley 2738 3069 3134 3213 3523 785 Mendocino 2680 3083 3193 3283 3683 1003 Spring Mountain District 2936 3098 3213 3413 3541 605 Knights Valley 1903 2959 3218 3287 3541 1638 McDowell Valley 3134 3217 3244 3269 3305 171 Sonoma Mt. 2848 3125 3245 3311 3404 556 Benmore Valley 3155 3242 3248 3257 3332 176 Oak Knoll District 3040 3170 3253 3312 3501 461 Clear Lake 2799 3209 3267 3442 3811 1012 Chiles Valley 3019 3222 3312 3429 3555 536 Diamond Mountain 2952 3272 3343 3409 3501 549 Coombsville 2947 3210 3360 3616 3926 979 Mt. Veeder 2468 3186 3370 3465 3667 1199 Napa Valley 2036 3155 3389 3546 4023 1987 Rutherford 3364 3388 3411 3449 3575 211 St. Helena 3366 3377 3413 3460 3595 229 Yountville 3218 3355 3416 3469 3587 369 Calistoga 3193 3362 3422 3467 3517 324 Oakville 3240 3410 3434 3479 3584 344 Guenoc Valley 3420 3465 3481 3580 3796 376 Stags Leap District 3321 3461 3532 3583 3845 524 High Valley 3139 3447 3548 3618 3755 616 Red Hills Lake County 3114 3434 3596 3683 3776 662 Susiun Valley 3449 3549 3624 3762 4027 578 Wild Horse Valley 3244 3510 3631 3672 3895 652 Solano Co Green Valley 3202 3568 3746 3868 4021 819 Capay Valley 2963 3730 3866 4065 4318 1355 Dunnigan Hills 4093 4192 4217 4243 4343 250 Growing Degree-Days (base 50°F) Covelo AVA Growing AVA Name Min 25% Median 75% Max Range Sonoma Coast 850 2304 2596 2754 3404 2554 Laytonville Degree-Days Sonoma Co Green Valley 2560 2669 2693 2707 2774 214 Mendocino Ridge 1951 2479 2701 2795 3069 1118 Russian River Valley 2425 2686 2736 2770 3233 808 (F° units) Anderson Valley 2257 2520 2759 2934 3191 934 Bennett Valley 2637 2831 2860 2909 3069 432 Median = 3218 Yorkville Highlands 2639 2797