Yýýýaýý'ýdýruuý3704311115 Teaching uncertainty: the case of climate change Brendan Michael Hall A thesis submitted to the University of Gloucestershire in accordance with the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Faculty of Education, Humanities and Sciences August 2010 FRANCISCLOSE HALL LEARNINGCENTRE UNIVERSITYOF GLOUCESTERSHIRE SwindonRoad. Cheltenhun GL50 4AZ Tel: 01242 714600 Abstract The concept of uncertainty plays a significant role in higher education in the 21S` century. However; the pedagogy of uncertainty tends to focus on ontology and the feelings of uncertainty experienced by teachers and students, as opposed to treating it as an epistemological concept. This research considers the epistemology of uncertainty in the context of climate change and investigates how it is conceptualised and taught by academics working in the subject area. The theoretical frameworks of troublesome knowledge and threshold concepts are employed to aid the characterisation of uncertainty as a concept in higher education. Following a methodology based on grounded theory, interviews were undertaken with 10 academics involved in teaching climate change. The interview data was analysed and categorised according to the interview participants' conceptions of uncertainty and the implications for teaching uncertainty. The research found that uncertainty in the context of climate change is a complex and multivariate concept and this was reflected in the interview data, with many of the participants holding several different conceptions of uncertainty simultaneously. In terms of teaching uncertainty, the concept also aligns with the theoretical frameworks, in that it is troublesome knowledge and a threshold concept in the context of climate change, with broader implications as an interdisciplinary threshold concept arising from the difficulty encountered when attempting to integrate diverse conceptions of uncertainty. Maturity and personal development were also found to play a role in teaching uncertainty. Several strategies and approaches to teaching uncertainty are discussed, and a critical reflection on the pedagogy of uncertainty is offered. The critical reflection proposes a pedagogy for teaching uncertainty whereby the concept is situated centrally in the higher education curriculum and taught explicitly through student-centred approaches that take into account issues of personal development and variation. Declaration I declare that the work in this thesis was carried out in accordance with the regulations of the University of Gloucestershire and is original except where indicated by specific reference in the text. No part of the thesis has been submitted as part of any other academic award. The thesis has not been presented to any other education institution in the United Kingdom or overseas. Any views expressedin the thesis are those of the author and in no way represent those of the University. C ý. Signed. Date `.°. b. (. ý. .. .... .... .... Acknowledgements This work has been made possible through the financial support of the Centre for Active Learning for which I am grateful. Thanks must go to Professors Mick Healey and Carolyn Roberts for taking a chance on a young, and comparatively inexperienced, researcher five years ago and giving him the opportunity to in pursue a doctorate -I hope I have repaid the faith you have shown me. Mick has also been the lead member in my supervisory team and has performed the role admirably, always encouraging and an excellent guide on my first steps into the realm of academia. My other supervisors have also assisted greatly in getting me to this point: Professor Ray Land; a remarkable intellect yet always humble and with a refined taste in public houses, Professor Frank Chambers; a genuine expert with an admirably sceptical streak and Dr John Hunt; responsible for inspiring my interest in uncertainty and who remained a valuable source of ideas and feedback even after serious illness. Thank you, all. I am also grateful for the moral support of my colleagues at CeAL, without whom I probably would not have made it this far. Particularly Laura Lannin, Jo Lonsdale and Claire Hanson, who have always been on hand with kind words, sound advice and stimulating conversation. Thanks must also go to my family - Mum; for her ceaselessencouragement and belief, Dad; for inspiring and challenging me, Lindsay; for further inspiration and laughter and Eilidh; for her timely cheerfulness (I've kept swimming! ). Finally, I must thank Sally, to whom this thesis is dedicated. You have made this possible through your love and support and I am so proud to be called yours. Let's get married. Contents Page no. Chapter One - Introduction 1 Teachinguncertainty 1 The caseof climate change 2 Theoreticalframeworks 3 Aims and ResearchQuestions 3 ResearchMethods 5 Positionstatement - opening 5 Chapter Two - Uncertainty in Context: The Case of Climate Change 7 Uncertaintyin climate changescience 8 Complexity, chaos and surprise 8 Palaeoclimateand proxies- learning from the past 11 Climate modelling - understandingthe past,predicting the future 18 Scientific discourse - conflict and consensus 23 Uncertainty in future projections of human behaviour 27 Emissions scenarios 27 Human responses and mitigation 30 Uncertaintyin decision-making 32 Characterising uncertainties for decision-makers 32 Post-normal science 34 Climate changeas post-normalscience 37 Climate changeand the precautionaryprinciple 40 Conclusion 41 Chapter Three - Theoretical Frameworks: Troublesome Knowledge and Threshold Concepts 43 The pedagogyof uncertainty 43 TroublesomeKnowledge 46 Ritual Knowledge 46 Inert Knowledge 47 Conceptually Difficult Knowledge 47 Foreignor Alien Knowledge 48 Tacit Knowledge 48 Implications of troublesome knowledge for teaching 49 Uncertainty as troublesome knowledge in the context of climate change 51 ThresholdConcepts 52 Thresholdconcepts and troublesomeknowledge 53 Other characteristicsof thresholdconcepts 54 Changes in language and identity 55 Liminality 57 Liminality, variation and implications for teaching 58 Implicationsfor curriculum design 59 Uncertaintyas a thresholdconcept in the context of climate change 60 Conclusion 63 Chapter Four - Methodology and Methods 64 Developing the methodology 64 Stage1: The questionnaire 64 Stage2: A phenomenographicapproach 65 Stage3: Using groundedtheory 68 Developingthe researchmethods 70 Developing questions & techniques for semi-structured interviews 70 Selecting participants for interviews 73 Carrying out datacollection and analysis 75 Doing the research interviews 75 Data analysis 76 Chapter Five - Analysis and DiscussionPart 1: Conceptions of Uncertainty 79 Scientific Conceptions 79 Climate Modelling 80 Quantifying Uncertainty 83 Nature of the System 87 Nature of Science 89 Qualitative Conceptions 96 Human Behaviour- Scenariosand Choices 96 Society- Politics, Risk and the Media 101 Conflict-basedUncertainty 104 PragmaticConceptions 105 Characterisingconceptions of uncertainty 107 Chapter Six Analysis and Discussion Part 2: Teaching Uncertainty 111 Uncertaintyas troublesomeknowledge 112 ConceptuallyDifficult Knowledge 112 Foreignand Alien Knowledge 114 Tacit Knowledge 116 Uncertaintyas a thresholdconcept 120 Maturity and development 129 Strategiesfor teachinguncertainty 136 Chapter 7- Summary and Conclusions 148 Synopsis 148 Researchquestion 1 150 Researchquestion 2 154 Research question 3 157 Researchquestion 4 160 Emergent themes 164 A critical reflection on the pedagogy of uncertainty 167 Instructionalprinciples from the pedagogyof uncertainty 170 Key conclusions 172 Further work 174 Position statement- closing 175 References 176 Appendices 188 Appendix 1- Questionnaire 189 Appendix 2- Semi-structured interview questions 191 Appendix 3- Academic participant consent form 192 Appendix 4- Interview Transcript (Exemplars) 193 Contents - Tables and Figures i! be.n: - ... Table Page 2.1 Some commonly used proxy indicators of climate variability and 13 their associateduncertainties 2.2 Types of climate models and some factors they may include 20 2.3 Likelihood and confidence as characterised and quantified through 24 expressionof probabilisticpercentages and odds 2.4 Projectedglobal averagesurface warming and sealevel rise at the 29 end of the 21st century based on SRES scenarios 2.5 A summary of the sources of uncertainty identified in this chapter 42 together with examples and key references from the literature 3.1 Examples of threshold concepts in academic disciplines 53 4.1 Participants in the study and their personal context 74 4.2 Summary of relationships between data presented in analysis and 78 discussion chapters (chapters 5 and 6) and the total dataset 7.1 A comparison between sources of uncertainty and examples 151 identified from the climate changeliterature and the conceptions of the participants Figure Page 2.1 Components and interactions of the climate system 10 2.2 Changing icons used by the IPCC to demonstrate warming from 15 pre-industrial to industrial times 2.3 Dating methods used in palaeoclimate research 16 2.4 Global mean near-surface temperature in the 20th Century from 21 observations and as obtained from climate models 2.5 representation of confidence in probabilistic assessmentsof future 33 temperature change and flooding risk due to climate change 2.6 Three types of problem-solving strategy 36 5.1 Characterising selected conceptions of uncertainty relative to their 108 scientific/ qualitative or philosophical/practical nature 5.2 Climate modelling