Current Population of Gloucestershire (Mid-2018) An Overview Data & Analysis Team Gloucestershire County Council [email protected] Current Population of Gloucestershire (Mid-2018) An Overview The population of Gloucestershire was estimated to be around 633,558 in 2018, representing a rise of approximately 5,419 people since 2017. This is the equivalent to a growth of 0.9% in population from 2017 to 2018, which was higher than the rate of growth for England and Wales which stood at 0.6%. The district of Gloucester has the largest population in the county and the Forest of Dean has the smallest. From 2017 to 2018, Tewkesbury had the fastest rate of growth in the county (2.5%) whilst Cheltenham had the lowest rate with a decline of -0.03%. Table 1: Gloucestershire and Districts Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2018 Change 2017 to % Change 2017 Population 2018 Population 2017 2018 to 2018 Gloucestershire 633,558 628,139 5,419 0.9% Cheltenham 117,090 117,128 -38 0.0% Cotswold 89,022 87,509 1,513 1.7% Forest of Dean 86,543 85,957 586 0.7% Gloucester 129,285 129,083 202 0.2% Stroud 119,019 118,130 889 0.8% Tewkesbury 92,599 90,332 2,267 2.5% South West 5,599,735 5,559,316 40,419 0.7% England 55,977,178 55,619,430 357,748 0.6% England and Wales 59,115,809 58,744,595 371,214 0.6% Great Britain 64,553,909 64,169,395 384,514 0.6% United Kingdom 66,435,550 66,040,229 395,321 0.6% United Kingdom Rankings of Local Authorities by percentage change It was mentioned above that Tewkesbury Borough is estimated to have grown the fastest over the past year with 2.5% increase in population 2017-2018. In fact it has the 5th highest growth amongst districts of the UK (see Table 2). Only City of London, Westminster, Camden and Tower Hamlets exceed it. The increases in the population in these four London Boroughs are largely driven by International Migration whereas in Tewkesbury it is largely driven by internal migration. The Cotswold District is ranked 19th of 391 districts again driven largely by internal migration as the natural change (births minus deaths) is negative. Stroud District and The Forest of Dean rank 115th and 139th. Gloucester and Cheltenham have low growth and are ranked 303rd and 347th respectively. Both these districts have negative internal migration rates and in Cheltenham’s case the population change is negative. Table 2: Population change and components of change Gloucestershire districts (2017-18) ) 18 - District rate rate 2017 districts) (of 391 UK 391 UK (of 2017 to 2018) to 2017 (% Net internal Net internal migration rate rate migration rate migration Natural change change Natural (% 2017 to 2018) to (% 2017 2018) to (% 2017 (% Net international Net international Population change change Population rank of pop change change pop of rank Tewkesbury 2.51 2.05 0.18 0.2 5 Cotswold 1.73 1.66 0.28 -0.21 19 Stroud 0.75 0.78 0.13 -0.15 115 Forest of Dean 0.68 0.64 0.19 -0.18 139 Gloucester 0.16 -0.54 0.27 0.44 303 Cheltenham -0.03 -0.22 0.13 0.06 347 Age Structure The proportion of children and young people aged 0-19 (22.5%) was slightly higher than that for the South West but lower than that for England and Wales. The working age population (aged 20-64) made up 56.2% of the population in Gloucestershire in 2018. This was slightly higher than the figure for South West, but lower than that for England and Wales. The proportion of people aged 65 or over (21.3%) was lower than that for South West but higher than that for England and Wales. The percentage of the population of working age in Gloucestershire at 56.2%, is nearly 2 percentage points lower than that of England and Wales, and has declined from 56.4% last year. The 90 years and over population continues to increase despite a decline in births in England and Wales 90 years ago; this reflects improvements in mortality going back many decades. Table 3: Age structure of the Gloucestershire population, mid-2018 Number of people England and Age Band Gloucestershire % South West % 2018 Wales % 0-19 142,244 22.5 22.0 23.6 20-64 356,341 56.2 56.0 58.1 65 and over 134,973 21.3 22.0 18.3 Number of people England and Age Band Gloucestershire % South West % 2018 Wales % 90+ 6562 1.0 1.1 0.9 Table 4 shows that from 2017 to 2018, population growth in Gloucestershire was fastest in the 65+ age group, which increased by 2.1%; this was faster than the rates for this age group in the South West and England and Wales (1.6% and 1.5% respectively). The rate of growth in the children and young people (0-19) population in Gloucestershire (0.6%) was slightly higher than the rates for the South West and England and Wales (0.3% and 0.5% respectively) whilst the growth in the working age (20-64) population of 0.5% was slightly higher than England and Wales and the same as the South West. Table 4: Population change by age (%), 2017 to 2018 Gloucestershire England and Wales Age Band South West % % % 0-19 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 20-64 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 65 and over 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% The older population Table 5 shows in more detail the age structure of the older population in Gloucestershire in 2018. The largest group is people aged 65-74 with 73,376 people, whilst those aged 85 and over make up 18,021 of the people in Gloucestershire, 11,531 of which are female. Table 5: The older population in Gloucestershire, mid-2018 Males Females All persons 65-74 34,992 38,384 73,376 75-84 20,136 23,440 43,576 85 and over 6,490 11,531 18,021 Age Structure in the Gloucestershire Districts Figure 1 shows the structure of the population in the six Gloucestershire districts in 2018: Gloucester had the highest number of 0-19 year olds (32,034) and Cotswold the lowest number (18,146). Gloucester and Cheltenham had the highest number of 20-64 years olds (75,681 and 68,196 people respectively) and Forest of Dean and Cotswold the lowest (47,055 and 48,116 people respectively). Stroud has the highest number of people aged 65 and over with 26,618 people. Figure 1: Age Structure in the Gloucestershire Districts Mid-2018 80,000 Age structure by districts, 2018 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Numberof people 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Cheltenham Cotswold Forest of Dean Gloucester Stroud Tewkesbury 0-19 20-64 65 and over Data Source: Mid-2018 population estimates, Office for National Statistics .