PARKING DEMAND PROJECTIONS FOR THE ROUTE 128 RAILROAD STATION GOVERNMENT DOCUMENTS COLLECTION JUL111984 University or Massachusetts Depository Copy June 1983 Digitized by the Internet Archive in 2014 https://archive.org/details/parkingdemandproOObeag TITLE Parking Demand Projections for the Route 128 Railroad Station AUTHOR(S) Daniel Beagan DATE June 1983 ABSTRACT This report develops parking demand projections for the Route 128 Railroad Station. The report deals separately with the AMTRAK, commuter rail, and carpool markets. The AMTRAK parking projec- tions were made using modifications of forecasts from the Northeast Corridor Improvement Project. The commuter rail and carpool parking projections were made using the calibrated mode split model for the Boston Region and a mode split model calibrated on national figures. The report estimates the maximum probable demand for parking . at Route 12 8 Station under the most extreme conditions projected from all market segments. Preparation of this document was financed with funds from the United States Department of Transportation supported with matching state and regional funds. CENTRAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING STAFF 27 School Street. Boston. Mass. A Cooperative Planning Effort of MAPC. EOTC. MDPW. M8TA. MBTA AOV. BD.. MASSPORT. AUTHOR (s) UMTA Grant MA-09-0084 UMTA Grant MA-09-0095 Production of this document was financed with funds from the UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT of TRANSPORTATION FEDERAL HIGHWAY ADMINISTRATION, through technical study grants from the UNITED STATES DEPT. of TRANSPORTATION URBAN MASS TRANSPORTATION ADMINISTRATION, and with state and local matching funds. Cooies may oe cota'ned from Central TransDortation Planning SiaM. 27 Scnooi Street Boston MA 02t0fl TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS 2 2.1 THE PHYSICAL FACILITY 2 2.2 EXISTING PATRONAGE 6 3.0 AMTRAK PATRONAGE ESTIMATES 7 3.1 BACKGROUND OF PAST ESTIMATES 7 3.2 DESCRIPTION OF FORECASTING METHODOLOGY 7 3.2.1 Growth Forecasts 8 3.2.2 Application of Existing Mode 8 3.2.3 Air/Bus to Rail Diversion 8 3.2.4 Auto-to-Rail Diversion 8 3.2.5 Induced Rail Trips 10 3.2.6 Allocation of Annual Trips to Design Day 10 3.2.7 Allocation of Daily Metropolitan Trips to 10 Route 128 Station 3.3 ANALYSIS OF FORECASTS 10 3.2.1 Growth Forecasts 16 3.3.2 Auto Diversion 16 3.3.3 Induced Trips 16 3.3.4 Design Day and Allocation of Trips to 16 Route 128 3.3.5 Additional Factors 16 4.0 COMMUTER RAIL PATRONAGE ESTIMATES 18 4.1 ESTIMATION OF FUTURE CONDITIONS AFFECTING PATRONAGE 18 4.2 AMV MODE SPLIT METHOD 21 4.2.1 Background on Method 21 4.2.2 Description of Method 21 4.2.3 Forecasts of Parking Demand 23 4.3 CSI MODE SPLIT METHOD 25 4.3.1 Background on Method 25 4.3.2 Description of Method 25 4.3.3 Forecasts of Parking Demand 25 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) 5.0 CARPOOLING DEMAND FORECASTS 29 5.1 FORECASTS OF CARPOOL PARKING DEMAND 29 6.0 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION 30 6.1 SUMMARY 30 6.2 CONCLUSION 31 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 2-1 Passenger Trains at Route 128 3 2-2 Origin Town by Boarding Station 4 2- 3 Station Boardings from Catchment Area Towns 5 3- 1 NECIP Methods for Estimating Future Rail Patronage 9 3-2 Calculation of Forecast Annual Rail Ridership - AMTRAK 11 3-3 Boston Metropolitan Station Boardings by Mode as a 13 Percentage of Total Area Boardings 3- 4 Parking Space Demand for High-Speed Intercity Rail 14 4- 1 Extreme Values of Factors Affecting Commuter Parking 19 4-2 1975 Home-Based Work, One-Way Trips 20 4-3 Input Variable for CSI Mode Split Model, All Cases 26 4-4 Input Variables for CSI Mode Split Model, By Case 27 -1- 1.0 INTRODUCTION The purpose of this report is to examine the long-range demand for parking at the Route 128 railroad station, in light of the MBTA's proposal to lease the land and/or air rights at that sta- tion. The Request for Proposal specified that a minimum of 750 parking spaces must be provided for rail patrons by the deve- loper. Concern has been raised that this minimum is below the long-range demand for parking. The current parking at this station is made up of three markets: commuter rail passengers, AMTRAK long-distance passengers, and carpoolers. This report will examine the demand for parking from each of these markets, relying heavily on previously-published reports. -2- 2.0 EXISTING CONDITIONS AT ROUTE 128 STATION 2.1 THE PHYSICAL FACILITY The current station at Route 128 has a paved at-grade parking lot of approximately 6.8 acres, with an aproximate capacity of 700 spaces (Reference 1, page 20). The long-term lot of 695 spaces is supervised by an attendant, and a parking fee of $1 per day is charged at time of exit. There is also a separate live parking area for approximately 30 vehicles for drop-off ( kiss-and-ride) trips The station structures consist of a 4,000-square foot main sta- tion, which provides a ticket office and a waiting area for southbound passengers. A smaller 1,500-square foot shelter is provided for northbound passengers. A pedestrian overpass over the train tracks is provided between the two structures (Reference 3, page 18-9). The station structures, as well as the land including the parking lots, is owned by the MBTA. The station is served by 44 passenger trains daily, and an addi- tional 8 passenger trains pass by the station without stopping (see Table 2-1 ). Of the trains stopping at the station, four commuter trains stop during the AM peak (6:30 AM to 8:30 AM) in the peak direction (northbound) and four southbound during the PM peak (4:30 PM to 6:30 PM) Of the AMTRAK trains, one train in the peak direction stops during each of the peak periods. The number of commuter trains making stops is up from 11 in each direction in 1975, although the number of peak-hour trains is unchanged. The number of AMTRAK trains making stops is down from 11 in 1975 (Reference 1). The schedule time from Route 128 to South Station is 20 minutes by both commuter rail and AMTRAK. The existing fare structure for commuter rail patrons to Boston is $1.50 one way. This represents the base fare of $1.25 and $.25 fare for each additional fare zone. Route 128 is located in Fare Zone 2. Proceeding south from Route 128 Station, Canton Junction is in Fare Zone 3 and Sharon is in Fare Zone 4. North from Route 128, Readville is also in Fare Zone 2, while Fairmount Station (the Hyde Park Station replacement during Southwest Corridor construction) is in Fare Zone 1. For all commuters, a discount of 9 percent per trip can be realized by purchasing a 12-ride ticket, and a discount of 22 percent per trip can be realized by purchasing a monthly pass, which is also good on all MBTA transit services. Route 128 is also the only station in the Southwest Corridor which charges a fee for parking. This increases the total train fare from this station by $.50 on a one-way basis. 1 1 i 1I 1 I I -3- XI 4J oo CM 3 o in O En m 4-> oo i— (N 4-) c 00 r*T\ Vj 00 f— CTi * 0 0 ro rH * 2 CQ >i < U i— PS (0 ro Eh 3 c < -C t) (0 <d -U C iT\ 3 a 00 rH W » 0 0 0 4J 02 CQ CD 0 i— o 0) cn * JS T3 d) rH 4J C a -h H >H 3 ro P> CO J2 t« 0 0 1— iH to OS 2 CO rH P •H to g • a; OS •H 4J E-i ro 3 u 00 S <D C (Ti e ^ 13 +J •H i— 0 +J c 3 to - U 3 ro r- E= u 0 0 rH t— £ Eh ro 0 CO CQ u < rH < OS "H Eh Eh U CQ g a a 0 * -K * CO c >i 0 CQ u •H r-l O -U V) to U 03 U) +J a 4-> (0 0 0 co Cm E-t CO LU -I I— CQ I < CsJ -4- City or Town of Origin Route 128* Route 128** Canton Junction** Sharon** Acton - 1 Avon - - 3 Attleboro - 2 Boston 3 - 2 Braintree 1 - Br idgewater - 1 Brockton 7 3 1 Canton 21 12 22 Cohasset - 1 Concord - 1 Dedham 3 8 Dover - 1 Easton 2 - 5 1 Foxborough 3 - 1 3 Franklin 1 1 holbrook 1 2 Lincoln - 1 Mansfield 1 1 Mattapoisett 1 — Medf ield 1 3 Milford - 1 Millis 1 2 1 Needham 3 2 Newton 1 1 Norfolk 1 - 1 1 North Attleboro 2 2 - Norton . 1 Norwood 6 10 4 Plainville - 1 Randolph 3 3 Raynham 1 1 Sharon 2 3 9 Sherborn 3 -- Stoughton 3 1 28 1 Walpole 14 10 2 1 Waltham 1 - Westwood 29 17 Whitman 1 - Wrentham 1 1 Central Massachusetts - 1 Rhode Island 7 4 Connecticut Xi No Response - 5 13 124 101 86 16 Source: *Reference 1 ^Reference 9 • Table Origin Town by Boarding Station 2-2 I I I — -5- ra c o E-< as i—I t i— in as co o < lO VD i—I i— ko vo n 2 2 CN CD o 0 0 3 I I I I inno t is i I I I I OS OS CN IT) i— as CN co CD O a -H I I I n I m<9 I otto I l I I I l in r-l CN CN OS 03 2 o 0 i—I I I I I I CN r—I 00 l I l I I l I CN <£> as r- O CN 2 Es CO I CO rH I I CN I I I I I l vo l m i i cn CTi CN cd c o JJ I I I I I O H I I I I I I I I I I I in c CN O U<0 c o l r- i l I oo cn I I I I I I I I I I CN u in o Xi-l CO CO as CD CD CO c U C c c c 0 0 0 <D 0 c J-l •H a e-< U •H S-i CD CD CD 4J 4J CO CD 4J CD -H T3 -U 0 0 >i CD U -P rH U c a c U X 0 CD C c -h n) <D (D 3 rH 3 <D X 00 <D a C CD > O U a C l") H JO rH 00 p CN iH V-i 0 c 0 u c 0 -U -H X XI CD (0 CN C rH iH rd X 4J CD 0 U t5 J-> 4-> E X 0 C 3T3 iH CD • • c •H X x: C CH4J O 0 0 Cn 0 <0 X CO > C O CD c CD > 4J Oi 0 o o a.