Food in an uncertain The impacts of climate change on food security and nutrition in the future Middle East and North Africa Food in an uncertain future 1 World Food Programme Regional Bureau for Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Contents Nile Gardenia Building, Intersection of Roads 108 & 161, Hadaek El Maadi, Cairo, Egypt. http://www.wfp.org 3 Acknowledgments 4 Overseas Development Institute Executive Summary 203 Blackfriars Road 6 London Introduction SE1 8NJ 10 Tel. +44 (0) 20 7922 0300 Current food security in the Middle East and North Africa Fax. +44 (0) 20 7922 0399 The macro-picture: challenges in national food systems and strategies E-mail: [email protected] The status of household food security and nutrition www.odi.org The geography of food insecurity www.odi.org/facebook 22 www.odi.org/twitter The future climate of the Middle East and North Africa A hotter, drier future: long term trends The views presented in this paper are those of the More frequent, more intense extremes authors and do not necessarily represent the views 28 of ODI or the World Food Programme. The impacts of climate change on food security How will food producers be affected? © World Food Programme 2015. All rights reserved. How will climate change affect food production? Which food producers will be most vulnerable? All ODI Reports are available from www.odi.org How will food consumers be affected? Climate is not only the only change: intersections with other trends 42 Options for building resilience and reducing risk Strengthen food systems and economic development for all Improve the yields, income, and choices of poor food producers 48 Conclusions 50 References 2 Food in an uncertain future Food in an uncertain future 1 Acknowledgements Authors: Guy Jobbins and Giles Henley, The authors would like to thank Oscar Ekdahl and Overseas Development Institute Carlo Scaramella at the World Food Programme for their oversight of, and contributions to, the report. WFP is the world’s largest humanitarian agency The authors also thank Maurice Saade (FAO), Sonja fighting hunger worldwide, delivering food in Vermuelen (CCAFS), Steve Wiggins (ODI), Emma emergencies and working with communities to build Conlan (WFP), Michele Doura (WFP) and Helen Parker resilience. Each year, WFP assists some 80 million (ODI) for their thoughtful comments on earlier drafts of people in around 80 countries. the report. Any errors remain those of the authors. ODI is Britain’s leading independent think tank on international development and humanitarian issues. Our mission is to inspire and inform policy and practice which lead to the reduction of poverty, the alleviation of suffering and the achievement of sustainable livelihoods in developing countries. We achieve this by locking together high quality applied research, practical policy advice, and policy-focused dissemination and debate. We work with partners in the public and private sectors, in both developing and developed countries. The Climate Adaptation Management and Innovation Initiative (C-ADAPT) is an initiative funded by the Government of Sweden’s fast-track climate finance that allows WFP and partners to explore innovative climate-induced food insecurity analyses and programmes, with the goal of helping individuals, communities and governments meet their food and nutrition needs under a changing climate. This publication is made possible through the generous contribution of: Suggested citation: Jobbins, G., & Henley, G., 2015. Food in an uncertain future: the impacts of climate change on food security and nutrition in the Middle East and North Africa. Overseas Development Institute, London / World Food Programme, Rome Photo: WFP/Rein Skullerud 2 Food in an uncertain future Food in an uncertain future 3 Executive Summary This report sets out the risks to food security in the whole. This makes it considerably more difficult are likely to contribute to concerns over food safety, to climate shocks and stresses on food security Middle East and North Africa (MENA) from climate to understand climate change from a regional particularly in conjunction with increased competition will require investment, mainstreaming climate change, and how these vulnerabilities interact with perspective. over water. risk management and strengthening resilience other key trends and sources of risk, including throughout the food system. This will include population growth, urbanisation, and conflict. Climate extremes and climate change will act as a Poor consumers in rapidly growing urban areas are adaptation of food production, improving water Focused on the year 2030, this report contributes risk multiplier for food insecurity in MENA. However, likely to be most vulnerable due to income insecurity and energy security, macroeconomic management to a better understanding of how these trends and the main drivers of food insecurity to 2030 will be and poor access to safety nets and basic services. and reform of food subsidy systems, and reducing risks may affect achievement of the Sustainable population growth, urbanisation, and economic Ensuring their food security will require broad pro- risks in food processing, storage, distribution, retail Development Goals (SDGs) and Zero Hunger in changes. Economic change will drive employment poor development efforts including management of and consumption. Food security of households is the MENA region. It highlights some particularly and income and people’s ability to purchase food. climate risk in the economy and employment, the interdependent with many other domains, ranging vulnerable groups, and also options for reducing This resonates with the SDG’s and the post-2015 design of social safety nets, the maintenance of from income and employment to access to basic climate risks to food security. Most studies in development agenda which recognizes that ending strategic food reserves, and improvements in food services and markets. Strengthening food security the region have focused on climate risks to food hunger and achieving food security is dependent storage and supply systems. and reducing climate risks therefore requires production. By contrast, this report emphasises the on a range of factors that often lay outside of integration and coordination across sectors and importance of climate risks to other aspects of food traditional food security concerns. Rapid urbanisation Increasingly integrated systems of food storage, across stakeholders. security, particularly people’s ability to purchase the will change patterns of what food people eat, and distribution and retail in the region are likely to food that leads to a safe and healthy diet. how and where they get it. Population growth will offer significant opportunities for managing climate Investments in resilience and managing climate increase demands on supply chains, infrastructure, risk. Adequate cold storage and refrigeration of risks to food security can also address existing and MENA is highly vulnerable to climate change. By and public services. Understanding how climate food during heat extremes and managing risks underlying vulnerabilities and weaknesses in food 2030, people’s food security will be affected by more change and extremes intersect with these drivers at bottlenecks in exposed storage and transport systems and governance. By seizing the imperative frequent, longer, and more intense heat extremes of vulnerability and food insecurity will be crucial infrastructure could all reduce vulnerabilities to the to adapt, the problem of climate change can be and droughts. Beyond 2030, food security will be for making food systems more climate resilient and food security of large numbers of people. turned into an opportunity to reform and strengthen increasingly affected by changes in long term climate better able to meet changing needs. food systems and food security. The findings and change trends: higher temperatures, precipitation Climate change will likely have discernable impact timeline of this report, focused on the year 2030, changes, and sea level rise. Climate variability is already a critical factor in on food security by 2030. However, this should not reinforces the need for urgent action and the determining the livelihoods of many poor and divert attention from fundamental food security and importance of achieving the SDGs. Climate change is certainly happening, yet vulnerable people in MENA. By 2030, the farming development objectives. Instead, mainstreaming uncertainties remain over the direction and activities of food producers, particularly in remote climate risk management into food systems can help magnitude of some changes. Some trends are clear. and marginal environments dependent on rain-fed address underlying vulnerabilities, weaknesses, and Higher frequencies of more intense heat waves and agriculture, will be impacted by climate change risks from other sources. More attention is needed higher average temperatures will be felt across the and extremes. Measures to help them cope with on how climate change and variability will affect the region. More frequent and more intense droughts drought, to increase farming productivity, and to access, stability and utilisation dimensions of food are expected to become the “new normal” in diversify away from farming will be key to improving security. These are less well understood than climate parts of the region, notably the Maghreb. Other their resilience and food security. risks to food availability, but likely to be at least as trends are less