Population Losses in the “Siege” of Sarajevo 10 September 1992 to 10 August 1994 Ewa Tabeau, Marcin śółtkowski and Jakub Bijak DEMOGRAPHIC UNIT - LRT Research report prepared for the case of STANISLAV GALI] (IT-98-29-I) 10 May 2002 Population Losses in the “Siege” of Sarajevo 10 September 1992 to 10 August 1994 Ewa Tabeau, Marcin śółtkowski and Jakub Bijak 10 May 2002 Table of Contents: 1. Executive Summary 2. The Scope, Sources and Structure of this Report 3. The Households Survey on the Free Territory of Sarajevo in 1994 (HSS-1994) 4. Mortality Database of Bakije Funeral Home and Auxiliary Sources Used in This Report 5. Absolute Measures of Population Losses Obtained from HSS-1994 5.1 Killed Population 5.2 Wounded Population 5.3 Timing of Killing and Wounding 6. Relative Measures of Population Losses for Persons Enumerated in the 1991 Population Census 7. The Estimated Overall Number of the Population Killed Within Front Lines in Sarajevo from 10 September 1992 to 10 August 1994 8. Concluding Remarks Annex 1. Area of the Households Survey, Sarajevo 1994: List of Local Communities Annex 2. The Questionnaire Used in HSS-1994 Annex 3. Statistics of the Killed Population Obtained from HSS-1994 Annex 4. Statistics of the Wounded Population Obtained from HSS-1994 Annex 5. Demographic Rates of Killing, Wounding and Natural Death in Sarajevo Annex 6. The Capture-Recapture Method in Estimation of the Overall Number of Those Killed in the Siege of Sarajevo from 10.09.1992 to 10.08.1994 Section 1. Executive Summary In this report we discuss population losses in the siege 1 of Sarajevo. The major source used in this report was the Households Survey of Sarajevo, 1994, (HSS-1994). Since its completion until the present, this survey has never been presented to any audience. The authors of the survey lacked resources for computerisation, data processing, and analysis. The Office of the Prosecutor (hereafter OTP) conducted a project in which these activities were completed in order to produce reliable statistics of population losses during the siege of Sarajevo. The outcome of the OTP project is presented in this report. The study area was the one within the Sarajevo front lines as set up by mid-1994. In practice, the area covered parts of six municipalities 2: Centar, Ilid`a, Novi Grad, Novo Sarajevo, Stari Grad, and Vogo{}a. The statistical definition of the area included 89 local communities (mjesne zajednice). The period of the study was from 10 September 1992 to 10 August 1994. The HSS-1994 was conducted at mid-1994 (from April to September 1994), and collected retrospective information about several demographic events, including killing, wounding and natural death. The reporting period lasted from January 1992 to September 1994. The survey population, meant to be complete, was about 340,000 individuals3. This large size of this population, even if it was incomplete, gives good reasons to believe, that it was large enough to use it in estimating statistics of killing, wounding and natural death for the area and period studied here. The source is discussed in Section 3. We also used several other sources of information, such as the Bakije Mortality Database ( Bakije ) and Mortality Database of Muslims against Genocide ( MAG ). In order to verify the identity of all casualties, the above-mentioned sources (HSS-1994, Bakije and MAG) were cross-examined against the 1991 population census for Bosnia and Herzegovina. (In other words, sources were matched or linked 4 with the census at the level of individual records). In order to distinguish between civilian and military casualties, the two major sources (HSS-1994 and Bakije) were compared (through linking) with official lists of fallen soldiers from ABiH (Armija Bosne i Hercegovine) and VRS (Armija Republike Srpske), obtained from the Ministries of Defence of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska. All these sources are summarised in Section 4. 1 The term siege is used to refer to events in Sarajevo, as they become popularly known. 2 The area of the six entire municipalities is hereafter called Sarajevo Six , on the contrary to parts of the six municipalities located within the 1994 front lines in Sarajevo. 3 The size of survey population is to a certain extent indicative. It has been obtained from the number of households interviewed in HSS-1994, i.e. 85,000, each consisting on average of 4 persons. The number of individuals in the survey could be slightly lower, but assuming a larger population is safer for the calculation of relative measures, such as demographic rates of killing or wounding. Rates, which relate a fixed number of events to a larger population, are more conservative (i.e. lower). 4 Approximately 80% of records in each source were successfully linked with the census (for some sources the matching rate was even higher). The unsuccessful matching was due to mistakes in names or other data deficiencies. 2 Table 1. An overview of summary statistics from the Households Survey of Sarajevo, 1994 Variables’ Killed Wounded Variables Categories Number Percent Number Percent Sample Size Overall Total 3798 100.00 12919 100.00 Sex Men 3127 82.33 10438 80.80 Women 670 17.64 2477 19.17 Unknown 1 0.03 4 0.03 Age (years) 0-4 22 0.58 69 0.53 5-9 79 2.08 234 1.81 10-17 194 5.11 948 7.34 0-17 295 7.77 1251 9.68 18-69 3397 89.44 11473 88.81 70+ 85 2.24 179 1.39 Unknown 21 0.55 16 0.12 Ethnicity Croats 135 3.55 452 3.50 Muslims 2340 61.61 8715 67.46 Others 330 8.69 1391 10.77 Serb 158 4.16 633 4.90 Unknown 835 21.99 1728 13.38 Status: Civilians 1399 36.84 5093 39.42 Reported in HSS94 Soldiers 2381 62.69 7774 60.17 Unknown 18 0.47 52 0.40 Status: Civilians 1732 45.60 na na External Definition Soldiers 2062 54.29 na na Unknown 4 0.11 na na Of Soldiers: Of 2062: ABH 1577 41.52 na na VRS 1 0.03 na na HSS94 484 12.74 na na Year of Event 1992 1201 31.62 3923 30.37 1993 2196 57.82 7897 61.13 1994 401 10.56 1099 8.51 Op{tina of Event Centar 369 9.72 1504 11.64 Ilid`a 856 22.54 2626 20.33 Novi Grad 1053 27.73 3817 29.55 Novo Sarajevo 265 6.98 1089 8.43 Stari Grad 507 13.35 1423 11.01 Vogo{}a 175 4.61 391 3.03 Sarajevo unsp. 573 15.09 2069 16.02 Cause of Event Shelling 2160 56.87 8009 61.99 Sniping 699 18.40 3111 24.08 Other Firearms 529 13.93 1199 9.28 Other Casualties 410 10.80 600 4.64 3 Table 1. - Continued: Civilian Casualties Variables’ Killed Wounded Variables Categories Number Percent Number Percent Sample Size Overall Total 1399 100.00 5093 100.00 Sex Men 782 55.90 2802 55.02 Women 617 44.10 2291 44.98 Unknown 0 0.00 0 0.00 Age (years) 0-4 22 1.57 69 1.35 5-9 79 5.65 233 4.57 10-17 166 11.87 848 16.65 0-17 267 19.09 1150 22.58 18-69 1040 74.34 3769 74.00 70+ 83 5.93 172 3.38 Unknown 9 0.64 2 0.04 Cause of Event Shelling 932 66.62 3405 66.86 Sniping 253 18.08 1296 25.45 Other Firearms 101 7.22 288 5.65 Other Casualties 113 8.08 104 2.04 The linking confirmed the validity of sources and also helped increase information about individuals by using the sources jointly. This method of analysis considerably increased the reliability and scientific value of our results. In this report we present the following types of results: - absolute numbers of killed and wounded persons (Section 5) - demographic rates of killing, wounding and natural death (Section 6) - an estimated overall number of persons killed (Section 7) All absolute numbers are the lowest confirmed and should be seen as minimum numbers. The lists of casualties of the siege from 10.09.1992 to 10.08.1994 (3,798 names of killed persons, and 12,919 names of wounded persons) can be obtained from the demographic unit at a request. Table 2. Overview of total numbers of events reported in three HSS-1994 samples HSS-1994 HSS-1994 HSS-1994 Event ALL 01.01.92-30.09.94 10.09.92-10.08.94 Wounding 24197 21681 12919 Killing 7879 6055 3798 Nat Death 4981 4967 3434 Total 37057 32703 20151 4 The most significant findings of our study are shown in Table 1 and 2 and are listed below: Absolute numbers of casualties: - the total number of events reported in HSS-1994 was 37,057 (killing, wounding and natural deaths). Of this total, 20,151 events occurred in the area and period studied in this report, - the number of killed persons obtained from HSS-1994 for the area and period studied here was 3,798, and the number of wounded persons was 12,919, - these two numbers were obtained after data cleaning, re-coding of variables, a thorough control of data quality and internal data consistency, and elimination of duplicates from the HSS-1994 data, - the vast majority of those killed or wounded were men (3,127 killed and 10,438 wounded men), most of them were at active military age (18-69 years) and were soldiers, - however, many children, women and the elderly were reported among casualties as well, - among those killed there were 295 children (0-17 years of age), 670 women, 85 elderly (70+ years of age), - among those wounded the numbers were as follows: 1,251 children (0-17), 2,477 women, 179 elderly (70+), - in total a minimum of 1,399 civilians were killed and 5,093 were wounded, - shelling, sniping and other firearms were the most significant causes of killing and wounding - some 2,160 persons (of which 932 civilians) were killed by shelling, 699 (253 civilians) by sniping, and 529 (101 civilians) by other firearms, some 410 remaining deaths (113 civilians) were caused by other causes of killing, - with regard to wounding, 8,009 persons (of which 3,405 civilians) were wounded by shelling, 3,111 (1,296 civilians) by sniping, 1,199 (288