ELECTRIFICATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT/BOLIVIA: PROJECT MIDTERM EVALUATION Project funded by: U.S. Agency for International Development Project implemented by: National Rural Electric Cooperative Association Midterm evaluation carried out by: Team Tech nologies Stephen Sewart, Team Leader Jos6 Ignacio Coral IM. Silvio Olivera July 1994 Table ol Conten Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUM MARY ...................................................................................................... I. Conclusions, recom mendations, and lessons learned ............................................... 1 A. Conclusions, recomm endations, and lessons learned ................................. 3 B. Conclusions and recommendations: economic-financial ............................. 3 C. Conclusions and recommendations: project administration ........................ 4 D. Lessons learned ........................................................................................... 4 II. Background ............................................................................................................ 5 A. Introduction ..................................................................................................... 5 B. M ethodology .................................................................................................. 5 III. Engineering of RE Econom ic Development Subprojects ........................................ 7 A. Overview and methodology ........................................................................... 7 B. M izque-Aiquile ............................................................................................. 8 1. Relation to logical fram ework .................................................................. 8 2. Introduction .............................................................................................. 8 3. Analysis of alternatives ........................................................................... 9 a. Isolated systems ......................................................................... 9 b. Interconnected systems ............................................................. 9 4. Analysis .................................................................................................. 10 a. Com puter inform ation system .................................................... 10 b. Pole size/class and span length ................................................ 11 c. Cracks in wood poles ............................................................... 11 d. Use of large electric m otors ...................................................... 11 e. Insulator flashover .................................................................... 11 f. Excessive voltage drop ............................................................. 12 g. Installation of recloser ................................................................ 12 h. Voltage instability ...................................................................... 12 C. Valles Cruce os ........................................................................................... 12 1. Relation to logical fram ework ................................................................ 12 2. Introduction ............................................................................................ 12 3. Analysis of alternatives ........................................................................ 13 4. Engineering ana!ysis ............................................................................. 13 D. Capinota ....................................................................................................... 14 1. Relation to logical fram ework ............................................................... 14 2. Introduction ............................................................................................ 15 3. Analysis of alternatives ....................................................................... 15 E. C am iri ......................................................................................................... 16 1. Relation to logical fram ework ................................................................ 16 2. Subproject description ........................................................................... 16 Ut F. Berm ejo.:: .................................................................................................... 16 1. Relation to logical fram ework ............................................................... 16 2. Project description .................................................................................. 17 G . Chapare ....................................................................................................... 18 1. Relation to logical fram ework ............................................................... 18 2. Project description .................................................................................. 18 IV. Technical Assistance and Load M anagement ...................................................... 19 A. Technical assistance program ................................................................... 19 1. Overview ............................................................................................... 19 2. M ethodology ......................................................................................... 19 3. Chiquitania ............................................................................................. 19 4. Beni ...................................................................................................... 19 5. CO RELPAZ ........................................................................................... 20 6. Sector support ...................................................................................... 20 7. W ood quality control ............................................................................. 20 B. Load managem ent ...................................................................................... 21 1. Overview ............................................................................................... 21 2. M ethodology ......................................................................................... 21 3. Description of load m anagem ent program ........................................... 21 V. Econom ic, Financial and Social Analyses ............................................................... 23 A. Sam ple Analyzed ........................................................................................ 23 B. Project financial and econom ic analyses .................................................... 24 1. G eneral com ments .............................................................................. 24 a. The DAM m ethodology ............................................................. 24 b. Im provem ents introduced by NRECA ...................................... 25 c. M ethodological im provements still needed ............................... 25 d. Availability and opportunity in economic and financial analyses.. 26 2. Com m entaries on specific studies ........................................................ 26 a. Dem and analysis ....................................................................... 26 b. M izque-Aiquile subproject ........................................................ 27 c. Valles Cruce os subproject ............................................................................. 28 d. Vinto subproject ........................................................................ 30 e. Capinota subproject ........................................................................................... 31 C. Project financial viability and sustainability ................................................. 32 1. General com ments ............................................................................... 32 2. Comm ents on specific projects ............................................................. 33 a. M izque-Aiquile subproject ....................................................... 33 b. Valles Crucehos subproject ...................................................... 34 c. Vinto subproject ........................................................................ 35 d. Capinota subproject .................................................................. 35 D. Rural Electrification Finance Corporation (EFER) ..................................... 35 1. Historical conception of EFER ............................................................. 35 2. The Electricity Law ............................................................................... 36 3. Situation analysis ................................................................................. 37 E. Be ,w:iary Assessments ........................................................................... 38 Table ol Conlent 1. Relation to logical fram ework ................................................................ 38 2. Description and analysis of Beneficiary Assessments.......................... 38 F. Promotion of Productive Uses .................................................................... 40 1. Relation to logical fram ework ................................................................ 40 2. Overview of productive uses prom otion ................................................ 41 3. M izque-Aiquile (MA) .............................................................................. 42 4. Valles Crucerios (VC) ..........................................................................