PHE-ETHIOPIA CONSORTIUM A Resource Base and Climate Change Risk Maps for Simien Mountains National Park Tezera Chernet ERCAND Consult 2015, Addis Ababa Financed by the SCIP Fund: the SCIP Fund is financed by the Governments of the United Kingdom (UK), Norway and Denmark. Table of Contents Table of Contents ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................................................................... V ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .............................................................................................................................. VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... VII 1. OVERVIEW OF SIMIEN MOUNTAINS NATIONAL PARK .................................................................................. 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 OBJECTIVE........................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.3. THE STUDY AREAS ............................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3.1 Location ................................................................................................................................................. 2 1.3.2 Topography ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1.3.3 Soil ......................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.3.4 Water Resources and drainage ............................................................................................................. 4 1.3.5 Brief History of Simien Mountains National park.................................................................................. 4 2. LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION ..................................................................................................................... 6 2.1 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1 Data set ................................................................................................................................................. 6 2.1.2 Preprocessing of Images ....................................................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 Image Classification for land use and land cover mapping ................................................................... 6 2.1.5 Land cover change detection ................................................................................................................ 7 2.1.6 Identification of change drivers ............................................................................................................ 7 2.1.7 Materials and tools ............................................................................................................................... 7 2.2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................................. 8 2.2.1 Present Vegetation types ...................................................................................................................... 8 2.2.2. Description of the present land use / cover types ................................................................................ 9 2.2.3 Land use / cover changes .................................................................................................................... 10 2.2.4 Drivers of Land cover Change .............................................................................................................. 11 3. WILD ANIMALS HABITAT MAPPING ........................................................................................................... 12 3.1 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 12 3.1.1 Data Set............................................................................................................................................... 12 3.1.2 Habitat assessment and mapping ....................................................................................................... 12 3.2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 13 3.2.1 Bio-Diversity of Simien Mountains National Park ............................................................................... 13 3.2.2 Trends in Number of Wild-animal Population ..................................................................................... 14 3.2.3 Habitat Fragmentation ....................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.3.1 Deforestation and Degradation ..................................................................................................................... 16 3.2.3.1.1 Expansion of Cultivated Land ................................................................................................................. 16 3.2.3.1.2 Competition from Grazing by Domestic Animals ................................................................................... 17 3.2.3.1.3 Collection of Fuel and construction wood .............................................................................................. 17 3.2.3.2 Infrastructure development .......................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.3.3 Impacts of Fragmentation ............................................................................................................................. 17 3.2.3.4 Habitat Suitability Modeling .......................................................................................................................... 18 4. CLIMATE CHANGE RISK PROFILES ............................................................................................................... 19 4.1 OBJECTIVE...................................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 METHODOLOGY .............................................................................................................................................. 19 ERCAND Consult Page ii Table of Contents 4.2.1 Data Set............................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2.2 Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................................. 19 4.2.2.1 Fire hazard Assessment ................................................................................................................................. 20 4.2.2.3 Flood hazard Assessment .............................................................................................................................. 22 4.2.3 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 24 4.3 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS ............................................................................................................................... 24 4.3.1 Climate ................................................................................................................................................ 24 4.3.1.1 The Present Climate of SMNP ....................................................................................................................... 24 4.3.1.2 The Future Climate ........................................................................................................................................ 25 4.3.2 Hazards Assessment ............................................................................................................................ 26 4.3.2.2 Fire hazard ..................................................................................................................................................... 26 4.3.2.1.1 Fire Frequency ....................................................................................................................................... 26 4.3.2.1.2. Fire Prone Areas .................................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.2.3 Flood Prone areas .......................................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.3 Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................................................................... 30 4.3.4 Risk Assessment .................................................................................................................................. 31 4.3.4.1 Fire Risk ........................................................................................................................................................