CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING REPORT 2015 September 2016 Published by the Japan Meteorological Agency 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan Telephone +81 3 3211 4966 Facsimile +81 3 3211 2032 E-mail [email protected] CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING REPORT 2015 September 2016 JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY Cover: Monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in December 2015 (the peak of the El Niño event) The base period for the normal is 1981–2010. Preface The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has published annual assessments under the title of Climate Change Monitoring Report since 1996 to present the outcomes of its activities (including monitoring and analysis of atmospheric, oceanic and global environmental conditions) and provide up-to-date information on climate change in Japan and around the world. In 2015, the strong El Niño event affected climate conditions globally. From mid-August to early September, Japan experienced unseasonable weather with above-normal precipitation and below-normal sunshine durations. During this period, typhoons Kilo and Etau brought record precipitation to parts of the Kanto and Tohoku regions. Extremely high temperatures were frequently observed in many regions of the world, and Southeast Asia was among numerous places suffering droughts. These conditions caused severe damage to social and economic activities in the areas they influenced. The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2015 was the highest since records began in 1891, significantly surpassing the previous record set in 2014. Extreme social and economic impacts from weather conditions are becoming commonplace. The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated, “Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since about 1950. Some of these changes have been linked to human influences, including an increase in warm temperature extremes and an increase in the number of heavy precipitation events in a number of regions.” Based on these observations, the Paris Agreement was formulated at the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC in Paris in December 2015 to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. In November 2015, Japan’s government also formulated the National Plan for Adaptation to the Impacts of Climate Change as set by the Cabinet. This report presents recent JMA scientific data, information and expertise in areas including the recent El Niño event and related effects. It is intended to provide a scientific basis for better implementation of measures relating to climate change and to raise awareness of global environmental issues. Sincere appreciation goes to JMA’s Advisory Group of the Council for Climate Issues and its chair, Dr. Hiroki Kondo, for their pertinent comments and guidance regarding this report. Toshihiko Hashida Director-General Japan Meteorological Agency Index Chapter 1 Climate in 2015 ……………………………………………………………… 1 1.1 Global climate summary ………..…………….………………………………….…… 1 1.2 Climate in Japan …………….……..………………………………………………… 5 1.2.1 Annual characteristics ………………………………...…...………………… 5 1.2.2 Seasonal characteristics …………………………...………………………… 6 1.3 Atmospheric circulation and oceanographic conditions ………………………… 10 1.3.1 Characteristics of individual seasons ……….…………………….……… 10 1.3.2 Analysis of specific events occurring in 2015 …………………………… 17 Chapter 2 Climate Change ……………………………………………………………… 23 2.1 Changes in temperature ……………………………………………………..……… 23 2.1.1 Global surface temperature ………………………………………………… 23 2.1.2 Surface temperature over Japan …………………………………………… 25 2.1.3 Long-term trends of extreme temperature events in Japan ………………… 26 2.1.4 Urban heat island effect at urban stations in Japan ………………………… 27 2.2 Changes in precipitation ………………………………………………………….… 29 2.2.1 Global precipitation over land ………………………………………….… 29 2.2.2 Precipitation over Japan …………………………………………………… 29 2.2.3 Snow depth in Japan ………………………………………………………30 2.2.4 Long-term trends of extreme precipitation events in Japan ………….…… 31 2.2.5 Long-term trends of heavy rainfall analyzed using AMeDAS data …..…… 32 2.3 Changes in the phenology of cherry blossoms and acer leaves in Japan …………… 34 2.4 Tropical cyclones …………………………………………………………..……… 35 2.5 Sea surface temperature …………………………………………………………… 36 2.5.1 Global sea surface temperature …………………………………….……… 36 2.5.2 Sea surface temperature (around Japan) …………………………………… 37 2.6 El Niño/La Niña and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) ………………………… 38 2.6.1 El Niño/La Niña …………………………………………………………… 38 2.6.2 Pacific Decadal Oscillation ……………………………………………… 39 2.7 Global upper ocean heat content …………………………………………………… 40 2.8 Sea levels around Japan …………………………………………………………… 41 2.9 Sea ice ……………………………..………………………………………………… 43 2.9.1 Sea ice in Arctic and Antarctic areas ……………………………………… 43 2.9.2 Sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk ……………………………………………… 44 2.10 Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere ……………………………………… 45 Chapter 3 Atmospheric and Marine Environment Monitoring ………………………... 47 3.1 Monitoring of greenhouse gases …………………………………………………...... 47 3.1.1 Global and domestic atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ……….. 48 [Column] 50-year long 137°E repeat hydrographic section ………………………… 55 3.1.2 Global and domestic atmospheric methane concentrations ……………… 59 3.1.3 Global and domestic atmospheric nitrous oxide concentrations ………… 61 3.2 Monitoring of the ozone layer and ultraviolet radiation …………………………… 63 3.2.1 Ozone layer …………………………………………..…………………… 63 3.2.2 Solar UV radiation in Japan ………………………….…………………… 66 3.2.3 Global and domestic observation of ozone-depleting substances ………… 66 3.3 Monitoring of aerosols and surface radiation ……………………………………… 69 3.3.1 Aerosols …………………………………………………………………… 69 3.3.2 Kosa (Aeolian dust) .…………………...………..………………………… 69 3.3.3 Solar radiation and downward infrared radiation ………………………… 70 Explanatory note on detection of statistical significance in long-term trends …………… 73 Glossary …………………………………………………………...……………………… 75 Map 1 Names of world regions ………………………………………………………...… 80 Map 2 Names of Japan’s island areas and Names of Japanese regions used in this report ……… 80 Map 3 Distribution of surface meteorological observation stations in Japan ………...…… 81 References …………………………………………………...…………………………… 82 (Chapter 1 Climate in 2015) Chapter 1 Climate in 2015 1.1 Global climate summary ○ Extremely high temperatures were frequently observed in many regions of the world, especially at low latitudes. ○ Extremely low precipitation amounts were observed in western Indonesia and northern South America. ○ Heatwaves resulted in many fatalities in India and Pakistan, and torrential rains caused immense damage in both countries. Severe drought conditions continued in the southwestern USA. Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters occurring in 2015 are shown in Figure 1.1-1 and Table 1.1-1. El Niño can be considered responsible for the high temperatures observed at low latitudes as well as low precipitation amounts in and around Indonesia and in the northern part of South America. Extremely high temperatures were observed in many months in areas including central/western Siberia, the western coast of North America and regions at low latitudes ((1), (3), (4), (7), (10), (11), (12), (14), (17), (19), (20), (22), (23) in Figure 1.1-1). At Borzya in southern Central Siberia, the two-month mean temperature for January/February was -19.1°C (5.7°C higher than the normal1), while the six-month mean for July – December at Hyderabad in southern India was 27.4°C (2.2°C higher than the normal) and the four-month mean for September – December at Montes Claros in eastern Brazil was 28.0°C (3.7°C higher than the normal). Extremely low precipitation amounts and high temperatures were observed in many months in and around western Indonesia and South America ((4) and (19) in Figure 1.1-1). The total precipitation amount for September – November at Banjarmasin on Borneo Island in Indonesia was 113 mm (19% of the normal), while the five-month total for May to September at Barranquilla in Colombia was 127 mm (21% of the normal). India and Pakistan were hit by heatwaves that caused more than 2,300 and 1,200 fatalities, respectively ((6) and (8) in Figure 1.1-1). In addition, torrential rains in both countries resulted in more than 1,200 and 230 fatalities, respectively ((6) and (8) in Figure 1.1-1). The southwestern USA was affected by an extreme drought that was reported to have caused forest fires ((15) in Figure 1.1-1). Los Angeles in California recorded only 153 mm of precipitation for the year, which was 48% of the normal. Annual mean temperatures were above the normal in many parts of the world, and were below the normal in eastern Canada and along the Antarctic coast (Figure 1.1-2). Annual precipitation amounts were above the normal from western Japan to southeastern China, in northern China, from the western part of Central Siberia to northern India, in northern Europe, in and around the southern USA, from Ecuador to the northern coast of Chile, in and around Paraguay and in northern Australia, and were below normal from central to western Indonesia, on the southern Arabian Peninsula, in south Africa, around the southern Caribbean 1 Extreme climate events are defined by anomalies or ratios to climatological normals. Normals represent mean climate conditions at given sites, and are currently based on a 30-year mean covering the period from