BOSTON COLLEGE Morrissey College of Arts and Sciences From Beirut to Belfast How Power-Sharing Arrangements affect Ethnic Tensions in Post-Conflict Societies By Czar Alexei Sepe Advised by Professor Peter Krause, Ph.D. An Honors Senior Thesis submitted to The Honors Program of the Department of Political Science April 2, 2021 FROM BEIRUT TO BELFAST: How Power-Sharing Arrangements affect Ethnic Tensions in Post-Conflict Societies Chestnut Hill, MA ii Dedicated to my aunt, Mary Jane Mercado, who lost her life to COVID-19, and to all healthcare heroes fighting against the Coronavirus pandemic at the time of this writing. iii Table of Contents Table of Figures ............................................................................................................................. iv Preface and Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................... v Chapter 1 Introduction: Power-Sharing Through the Rearview Window? ..................................................... 1 Chapter 2 Sites of Social Interaction and Cohesion Strategies: A Theory of Ethnic Tensions after Power- Sharing Agreements ...................................................................................................................... 15 Chapter 3 Lebanon: A Nation Faces a Tough Reality ................................................................................... 49 Chapter 4 Northern Ireland: A Fight for Peace ............................................................................................ 93 Chapter 5 Conclusion: Is Power-Sharing Worth It? ................................................................................... 133 Bibliography ............................................................................................................................... 147 iv Table of Figures Figure 1. Three Main Institutional Designs for Power-Sharing ................................................... 20 Figure 2. A Typology of Sites of Social Interactions (SSIs) in Divided Societies ....................... 31 Figure 3. A Typology of Cohesion Strategies in Divided Societies ............................................. 35 Figure 4. Relationship Between Theoretical Frameworks and Ethnic Tension in Post-Conflict Societies ........................................................................................................................................ 41 Figure 5. How Power-Sharing affects Ethnic Tensions in Post-Conflict Societies ...................... 45 Figure 6. Political and Military Actors during the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1989) .................. 57 Figure 7. Sites of Social Interaction (SSIs) and Cohesion Strategies in the Taif Accords ........... 59 Figure 8. Lebanon Predicted Outcomes ........................................................................................ 65 Figure 9. Implementation of Taif Accords 10 Years After Adoption ........................................... 71 Figure 10. Ethnographic Map of Beirut ........................................................................................ 85 Figure 11. Lebanon Case Study Findings ..................................................................................... 91 Figure 12. Political and Military Actors in the Troubles (1968-1998) ....................................... 104 Figure 13. Sites of Social Interaction (SSIs) and Cohesion Strategies in the GFA .................... 108 Figure 14. Northern Ireland Predicted Outcomes ....................................................................... 113 Figure 15. Implementation of GFA 10 Years After Adoption .................................................... 118 Figure 16. Northern Ireland Political Attitudes, 2013-2019 ....................................................... 129 Figure 17. Northern Ireland Case Study Findings ...................................................................... 131 Figure 18. Summary of Case Study Findings ............................................................................. 133 v Preface and Acknowledgements I was sitting on my AerLingus flight from Dublin to Newark, reminiscing—as any college student who studies abroad does—of the memories I’ve made during my semester in Ireland. Scrolling through my Facebook timeline, I reflected on the weekend excursions, the nightly outings, and the new friends I made. I can safely say I enjoyed the good craic. One photo stuck out to me. In October 2019, I visited Northern Ireland for a couple of days. I had only learned tidbits of the political turbulence that roiled that part of the island, like the notorious IRA or Bloody Sunday (which was just a U2 song to me then). I recalled encountering a protest in front of Belfast City Hall. The protestors kindly informed me that they were upset because the city hall stopped flying the Union Jack in 2012. Frankly, the demonstration felt more like the monthly meeting at your local Elks Lodge: about 10 people, all pretty old, holding up their little flags and signs as they talk about the ‘good ol’ days.’ But the flags they were waving were extremely provocative if you knew what they meant. It was the regimental colors of the 1st Battalion, Parachute Regiment— the British soldiers who perpetrated the Bloody Sunday massacre. In a ludicrous photo, I stand in front of the protestors: thumbs-up, smiling obliviously. Just like your stereotypical tourist. The summer beforehand, I was in Beirut, and the parallels were uncanny. Thanks to the Aggad Fellowship, I studied beginner Arabic at the Lebanese American University. Sectarianism felt so blatant in Lebanon. Meandering throughout the cluttered streets, I saw political posters everywhere, depicting politicians with their eye-to-eye grins—but there wasn’t even an election going on. Walking through an alleyway from the grocery store to my apartment, I saw a group of older men, about 5 of them, towards the end of the street. They sat around in a circle with their plastic chairs, sipping their coffee and smoking their hookahs. Next to them was the sky-blue flag of the Future Movement, a Sunni political party. As I passed them, they all perked up, mumbling to each other—serving as sentinels for their neighborhood. Visibly shaken, I scurry off, avoiding their menacing glares. Safe to say, I did not take a picture with them. For me, this symbolic parallel commenced my rabbit-hole exploration of the similarities between Lebanon and Northern Ireland. Both countries have confessional governments. Both experienced internal political strife; both were bloody and fratricidal. Both countries were known as notorious havens for terrorism. However, I felt one intuitive difference: Lebanon felt like a nation in disarray, unable to cope with its civil war past (I was there three months before the October Revolution), while Northern Ireland felt lively and hopeful for their future. In one place, I can jokingly take a picture with the Loyalist partisans—in the other, I felt like I was going to get into some serious trouble with a Sunni gang. Why? My thesis is an attempt to answer the questions I raised during my time abroad. It also gave me a good excuse to look back on my own ‘good ol’ days’ in Europe and the Middle East, especially since foreign travel won’t be occurring in the near future. Most importantly, though, it serves to showcase how I’ve developed as a writer and researcher, both in history and political science. Though cliché, I really do believe this work is a culmination of my undergraduate academic career. To this end, I should thank a few people who’ve helped me along the way. vi ### Inspiration for the title came from Thomas Friedman’s award-winning memoir, From Beirut to Jerusalem (1989). In the off-chance you ever stumble upon this thesis, Mr. Friedman, I must say thank you. I was lucky enough to make many friends in Dublin and Beirut. To my Irish friends: thank you for sharing your candid thoughts with me. I would like to particularly thank Séan Quinn at Trinity College, Dublin, for recommending that I visit Belfast. Alongside great hummus and plenty of sun, I must thank my Lebanese friends for giving me valuable insight: Joe Monem, John Haibi, Raed Khairallah and Firas Farah. Special thanks go to LAU’s SINARC program and my Arabic teachers: Laure Obeid and Sara Ammar. Also, I must thank Ghia from the Université Saint Joseph for our Global Conversations discussion, as she shed light on her country’s situation. My heart goes out to Lebanon—for its suffering, but resilient people. I must thank my thesis advisor, Professor Peter Krause, and the department thesis supervisor, Professor Jennie Purnell. Working with Prof. Krause on his research team sophomore year exposed me to research methods and political violence literature—but most importantly, he fostered my keen interest in this field. So during the end of my junior year, I felt it was a no- brainer to ask him to advise me. Prof. Krause has been very patient with me throughout the writing process. And I have learned many lessons, from overcoming methodological roadblocks to making some of the most stunning scholarly figures you’ve ever seen. I hope you enjoy reading all of this, Professor. Many thanks also go to Prof. Purnell, who was flexible as I decided to push on writing this work, in a time when I had personally felt overwhelmed during the pandemic. My thanks also go to librarian Julia Hughes, who guided me through primary source databases and procured books I requested that supplemented my research. 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