MAKING WELFARE WORK FOR AUTOCRACY: WEALTH, WILL & WOES IN THE POLITICS OF WELFARE IN CHINA by Asif Bin Farooq A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Political Science University of Toronto © Copyright by Asif Bin Farooq (2021) Making Welfare Work for Autocracy: Wealth, Will & Woes in the Politics of Welfare in China Asif Bin Farooq Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2021 Abstract China’s recent welfare expansion demonstrates a puzzling case. The welfare expansion has been broad-based, benefiting almost every sector of the society in one way or another, which is rare considering past authoritarian regimes often made welfare expansion exclusive to its loyal-support base. A wide degree of variation also exists in how welfare policies are prioritized in the short- term and how welfare provision is made in the long-term. To address these puzzles, the study examines welfare expansion at the city-level, covering 114 cities from 2006 to 2016. The main arguments are three-fold. First, local leaders prioritize different welfare policies with different motivations. They prioritize education spending strategically, ensuring human development for the local economy’s productive purpose while enhancing prospects for personal promotion. By contrast, annual social security and total welfare spending are determined by the local state sector’s size. Second, the state sector also plays a critical role in determining long-term welfare provision. Cities with a large state sector tend to have a high level of welfare provision in the long-term. Finally, the state sector gained more than any other sector from the expansion of social security even though the general population experienced a relative improvement in their welfare. The findings underscore the importance of the state sector for regime survival. The expansion of the state sector is a culmination of past policies. While the state sector’s expansion had the goal of ii establishing its commanding presence in the market economy, on the political level, it became a vehicle for advancing the Party’s socialist agenda and establishing social stability. Moreover, the mixed-welfare system made the fiscal burden of welfare expansion bearable through standardization of social security, creating a large pool for contribution by socializing risk. Privileged benefit and coverage helped strengthen the Party’s patronage relation with the state sector, while the relative improvement in welfare provision for all helped gain broader legitimacy. As a result, the Party-regime made the welfare expansion work for its own survival interest by instrumentalizing welfare for mass-cooptation while making it affordable. The study establishes a clear link between welfare expansion, mass cooptation, and authoritarian-regime survival. iii Acknowledgments My experience in China was rich and rewarding because of its kind-hearted people and regional diversity. My journey began in Northeast China. Among many amazing Dongbei people, I am grateful to Xue Bing. You provided unexpected but critical support during my fieldwork. I am very thankful to Wang laoshi from Changchun for your valuable support. I am grateful to Mingyuan for introducing me to ayi and sushu in Shenyang, who were generous to me and extremely resourceful for my research. I am also very fortunate to know Kosta, a brother from a different mother from Russia. As a roommate, you helped me adapt to a new culture in my early days in China. I also have to admit that China gave me two new brothers, the other being Jiazi. You embraced me with open arms, took me to your village, introduced me to your family and exposed me to the beautiful sides of family culture in China. I won’t forget your hospitality during my fieldwork. Moving to Hangzhou, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Yu Xunda at Zhejiang University. You facilitated my research at the stroke of a pen and with affirmative nods to your colleagues many times. Special thanks go to Zhou Yunheng. Your friendship, time spent with you during our several visits to tea gardens, escapades to nature and fruitful discussions over a cup of longjin reflect everything beautiful Hangzhou has to offer. Also, I can’t thank enough to Shunji Cui. I am indebted to you for all your support during my entire time in Hangzhou. Your life experience and perseverance were a source of inspiration to me. Among all my countless Chinese friends I was fortunate enough to know, and forgive me if I missed mentioning you here, I want to note my special thanks to Yu Bowen. You were the critical pillar that gave me relentless support and strength right from the beginning of my journey in China. I can’t thank you enough. I am so happy and fortunate to have met your lovely and kind-hearted family members, Long Fei, ayi and nainai . Sadly, we chose to live thousands of miles apart. If China was a rewarding experience during my graduate life, Canada made it possible, created the scholar in me and introduced me to a whole host of truly amazing and warm-hearted people who made every day worth living. I am truly indebted to Canada, my adopted country, for facilitating my research with the Vanier Canada Graduate Scholarship. I was also fortunate to have the support of the Canada-China Scholars Exchange program, Mitacs fellowship, Ontario Graduate Scholarship and Munk Doctoral Fellowship. I am also thankful to my committee members, Joseph Wong and Lucan Way, for your support and valuable feedback. Many thanks to Diana Fu and Mark Frazier for your thoughtful comments on my work. I am grateful to you both. Finally, to my supervisor Jacues Bertrand, I can’t thank you iv enough. You were kind enough to rescue me at a critical juncture of thesis-writing and helped me significantly improved my work. I am very fortunate to have your supervision. Every minute spent with you was fruitful, and the care you have shown to me during my thesis completion reflects the kind of supervision that all doctoral students need and wish for. Among countless fantastic colleagues who supported me during my Ph.D. journey in many different ways, Mike Gavin needs a special mention. You were there every time I encountered a roadblock in my analysis. The fine advisor and mentor in you will one day benefit legions of doctoral students. I want to express my gratitude to Lynette Ong. Even though we parted our way, your mentorship and support will be always remembered. I am also fortunate to have valuable advice from Robert Vipond, Victor Falkenheim, Louis Pauly, Greg Distlehorst, Kerry Ratigan, Samantha Vortherms, Yongshun Cai, Christopher Balding, Kellee Tsai, Sarah Eaton, Isabelle Cote and many others. Special gratitude goes to two amazing hearts, Andrew Cooper and David Welch. David made my higher academic journey possible in many ways and kept the faith in me. Andy gave me wings, catapulted my research experience and helped me see many countries. I won’t forget your hospitality, be it in Parma, Florence, Buenos Aires or in the backyard of your house. Last but not least, I am indebted to my family. My sister and brother-in-law were always there to support me. You facilitated my study in Canada, and I wish I were more steadfast showing my gratitude to you. And the sacrifice my mother made for my ambition and academic pursuit is second to none. I won’t be able to return that favour to you, but I hope I can make the rest of your life full of happiness and comfort. You are the best mom that I could have ever wished for. I hope my dad were here to witness his son becoming a doctor with you. And finally, I am the luckiest guy on earth who moved from Bangladesh to Canada only to find his other half from France in China. My beloved wife, you brought a smile to my face, opened the door to a whole new world for me and helped me regain self-confidence. You are the light at the end of the tunnel and have made every day in my life brighter than before. Thank you. v Introduction .................................................................................................................................1 1.1 Theoretical Puzzle & Research Questions ...........................................................................1 1.2 Determining Subnational Welfare Variation .......................................................................5 1.2.1 Welfare Expansion at the Local Level: City as a Unit of Analysis .........................6 1.2.2 Sample Selections: City Size & Administrative Jurisdiction ................................10 1.2.3 Empirical Variation in Short-term Welfare Priorities ............................................15 1.2.4 Empirical Variation in Long-Term Welfare Provision ..........................................18 1.2.5 The Winners from the Welfare Expansion ............................................................21 1.3 Why China as a Focus of Analysis? ..................................................................................22 1.4 Analytical Framework .......................................................................................................24 1.5 Research Design & Methods .............................................................................................26 1.6 Limitations .........................................................................................................................27 1.7 Chapter Outline ..................................................................................................................28