A KNOWLEDGE BASE APPROACH TOO SITE AND VARIETY SELECTION IN VITICULTURE A Dissertation by ELVIS ARREY TAKOW Submitted to the Office of Graduate and Professional Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Chair of Committee, Robert N Coulson Co-Chair of Committee, Edward W Hellman Committee Members, Vatche Tchakerian Koushen Loh Simon Sheather Head of Department, Kathleen Kavanagh May 2016 Major Subject: Ecosystem Science and Management Copyright 2016 Elvis Takow ABSTRACT Regional site suitability for wine grape varieties is generally considered to be closely related to environmental conditions. However, the global spatial distribution of grape varieties is also strongly influenced by socio-economic factors. These factors have shaped and given prominence to the classic wine growing regions of the Old World. New World and other prospective wine growing areas have not benefitted from centuries of trial and error in the selection of appropriate varieties. The goal of this study was to develop a knowledge base for understanding the role of environmental factors in regional selection of wine grape varieties for optimal production. Decision support tools are developed to guide potential and existing growers in selecting appropriate grape varieties for their region. Voluminous environmental data from numerous sources and at varying spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated in a broad scale spatial analysis of environmental conditions associated with wine grape varieties. Many of the environmental indices that are widely used throughout the viticulture industry in evaluating regional suitability for grape varieties came into use before the advent of geographic information system (GIS) analysis and are relied upon due to historical precedence. We statistically analyzed the relationship of the most commonly used index of growing degree days (GDD) with regional price as a measure of viticultural success. We also assess the relationship between other commonly used environmental indices and price with several years of comprehensive data collected from ii the grape crush districts of California. Finally, we propose a general broad scale approach to assessing the environmental similarity of renowned growing regions for selected varieties with prospective regions. Our results suggest that systematic GIS analysis combined with continued collection of regional performance data of varieties is critical to the continued scientific advance of viticultural site selection. A clear and consistent measure of viticultural success is necessary. Indices such as GDD are useful guides in viticultural site selection, but should be used with caution. Viticultural site and variety selection should focus on the similarity of a broad selection of environmental variables in known Old World regions of success with those of prospective regions. iii DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to Dad, Mom, Gus, and James. We have all spent so much time apart in pursuit of our education thus finally achieving this goal means so much. Thank you for the love, values, and morals which you instilled in us about working hard and realizing ones dreams. I truly wish you were all here with me to share in this accomplishment. Dad, this is especially for you and I hope you are proud of the accomplishment. Mom, thank you as well and I hope we have made you proud. Gus, I missed watching you grow up while pursuing my education. I am sorry and hope to make up for the lost time. To my lovely wife Kathryn; you are the best thing in my life and I would not have made it this far without you. Thank you for the sacrifice you have personally made in order for me to achieve my goals. Your parents have been a wonderful inspiration throughout the process and were instrumental in representing symbols of motivation to succeed. To the Downey family, you hold a special place in my heart as I certainly would not be here today without you. Mr. Downey, I know you are watching over me; thank you for everything. Mrs. Downey, thank you so much for always being there and supporting me. You are a special Mom and we are very fortunate to have you in our lives. Jacob, you won little brother and I am proud to accept defeat to the best little brother. James, words cannot express how instrumental you have been in my life. Thanks for having Summer in our lives and my little nephew Jaylen. Thanks for all the love! iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my committee chairs, Dr. Coulson, and Dr. Hellman. You have both been very instrumental in shaping my career moving forward and I would not have had this opportunity without you. Dr. Hellman, thank you for funding this project as long as you did and I appreciate the opportunity to work for and with you. Dr. Coulson, coming to KEL was a turning point in my life and I am truly grateful for the friendship and guidance. I know you will be working for many more years to come and hope I can be a part of it. To my committee members, Dr. Loh, Dr. Tchakerian, and Dr. Sheather, thank you for their guidance and support throughout the course of this research. Dr. Maria Tchakerian, thank you so much for everything. You helped start me down this path early on as I struggled with learning how to manage and use GIS software. You have been a great adviser and friend. Thanks also go to all my friends and colleagues and the Ecosystem Science & Management department faculty and staff for making my time at Texas A&M University a great experience. I want to specifically thank everyone at the Knowledge Engineering Laboratory. Many of you have gone on to other endeavors but I am truly grateful for the contributions you have made in helping me succeed. Thank you to Vickey Chen, Chris Garza, Luis Calixto, James Tracy, Reza Teshnizi and so many others who have helped me along the way. I also want to extend my gratitude to Dr. Andrew Birt. Andrew has been the most influential person throughout this learning experience as a friend and mentor. Thank you for the countless hours of help with code, analysis, and simply just v being a friend. Finally, thanks to my Mom and Dad for their encouragement and to my wife Kathryn for her patience and love. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... ii DEDICATION ..................................................................................................................iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...............................................................................................v TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................vii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... x LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... xv CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................ 1 Preface ............................................................................................................................ 1 Background to Wine Grapes and the Wine Industry...................................................... 4 Life Cycle of Wine Grapes............................................................................................. 7 Grape Growing Regions of the World ........................................................................... 9 Old World versus New World Viticulture ................................................................... 11 Current models for understanding wine grape environmental conditions ................... 14 CHAPTER II METHODOLOGY .................................................................................... 17 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 17 Methodology ................................................................................................................ 18 Data Acquisition and Collection .............................................................................. 20 Data Integration and Aggregation ............................................................................ 24 Data Modeling and Analysis .................................................................................... 26 Data Interpretation .................................................................................................... 27 Results and Discussion ................................................................................................. 27 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 32 The KELSoil Web service: An application of the Soil Survey Geographic Database 34 Data Acquisition and Collection .............................................................................. 35 Data Integration and Aggregation ............................................................................ 35 Data Modeling and Analysis .................................................................................... 39 CHAPTER III A CONCEPTUAL APPROACH TO BUILDING MODELS FOR SITE AND VARIETY SELECTION IN VITICULTURE .............................................. 45 vii Introduction .................................................................................................................