Critical Policy Brief Number 4/2021 The challenges that forced the Fatah movement to postpone the general elections Ala’a Lahlouh and Waleed Ladadweh Strategic Analysis Unit July 2021 Alaa Lahluh: Researcher at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, holds a master’s degree in contemporary Arab studies from Birzeit University, graduated in 2003. He has many research activities in the areas of democratic transformation, accountability and integrity in the security sector and the Palestinian national movement and participated in preparing the Palestine Report on the Arab Security Scale and a report on The State of Reform in the Arab World "The Arab Democracy Barometer" ". Among his publications is "Youth Participation in the Local Authorities Elections 2017", Bethlehem, Student Forum, December 2019, under publication, and “The Problem of Distributing Military Ranks to Workers in the Palestinian Security Forces”, The Civil Forum for Enhancing Good Governance in the Security Sector, November 2019, and “The Migration of Palestinian Christians: Risks and Threats", Ramallah, Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 2019, under publication. Walid Ladadweh: Master of Arts in Sociology and Head of the Survey Research Unit at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (Ramallah, Palestine) and a member of the Advisory Council for Palestinian Statistics from 2005-2008. He completed his master’s studies at Birzeit University in Palestine in 2003. He also completed several training courses in the field of research, the last of which was training courses at the University of Michigan in the United States on survey research techniques in 2010. He supervised more than 70 opinion polls in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and has vast experience in providing proposals, writing reports, preparing, and presenting educational materials, managing field work, and analyzing data using various analysis programs. He published and participated in several papers and research studies, the most recent of which was a paper entitled “Religion in Palestinian Society and Politics”, presented at a conference entitled Growing Popular Participation in Decision-Making in the Arab World and the World, which was held at Qatar University in March 2013. He also participated in writing the book "The Second Palestinian Elections (Presidential Parliamentary Governments, and the local authorities,), edited by Dr. Khalil Shikaki and Jehad Harb. He also wrote two papers: "Methodology used during the elections", and "Voter demographics". 2005-2006, he participated in the Palestinian Democratic Scale for the years 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) PSR is an independent nonprofit institution and think tank of policy analysis and academic research. It was founded in 2000 with the goal of advancing scholarship and knowledge on immediate issues of concern to Palestinians in three areas: domestic politics and government, strategic analysis and foreign policy, and public opinion polls and survey research. PSR conducts policy analysis and empirical surveys and public opinion research and organizes task forces, study groups, meetings and conferences. Its work focuses on current public policy issues with a special reliance on empirical evidence as a tool to advance scholarship and understanding. PSR is dedicated to promoting objective and nonpartisan research and analysis and to encouraging a better understanding of Palestinian domestic and international environment in an atmosphere of free debate and exchange of ideas. PSR is registered as a nonprofit institution in the Palestinian Ministry of Justice. This brief is the fourth in the PSR series of Critical Policy Briefs for 2021. These briefs address important domestic and foreign policy-oriented issues confronting Palestinian society today. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) P. O. Box 76, Ramallah, Palestine Tel: +970-2-2964933 Fax:+970-2-2964934 [email protected] www.pcpsr.org 2 Critical Policy Brief Critical Policy Brief The challenges that forced the Fatah movement to postpone the general elections Ala’a Lahlouh and Waleed Ladadweh On April 20, 2021, President Mahmoud Abbas issued a decree to postpone the legislative elections that were scheduled to be held in on May 22, 2021 in accordance with a previous decree issued on January 15, 2021. The decree to postpone the elections shocked the majority of the Palestinian public who wanted the elections to be held in order to bring about a change in Palestinian governance and to restore unity and end the West Bank-Gaza Strip split. It also surprised the international community that had hoped that these elections would result in a legitimate government that would represent all Palestinians. What prompted the Palestinian president to overlook all the wishes of the various factions, electoral blocs, the large majority of the Palestinian people, and the wishes of the international community? This paper aims to know the challenges that forced President Abbas and the Fatah movement to postpone the elections and how they can overcome these challenges. The president's stated justifications for postponing the elections: The Palestinian President announced that the postponement of the elections came, "in light of the decision of the expanded Palestinian leadership meeting, which included the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Central Committee of Fatah Movement, the leaders of the Palestinian national action factions, and national figures." He justified the postponement decision by stating that the Israeli occupation prevented the holding of elections in the city of Jerusalem, asserting that "there is no abandonment of Jerusalem, and there is no abandonment of the people's exercise of their democratic right in Jerusalem." The president added that "Israel has decided to kill the Arabs in Jerusalem, and we will not allow that." However, these justifications were not sufficient to satisfy the various parties; Sixty-five percent of the Palestinians expressed their opposition to President Abbas' decision to postpone the general elections, and two-thirds said that the postponement came out of fear of the results, and not for the sake of Jerusalem, according to a poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and 3 Critical Policy Brief Survey Research (PSR) in June 2021.1 In a statement, the European Union described the decision to postpone the Palestinian elections as "disappointing."2 The head of the political bureau of "Hamas", Ismail Haniyeh, considered the reasons for postponing the elections “unconvincing at all.” He stressed in a speech that his movement is not in disagreement with Fatah or with any party on the necessity of holding elections in Jerusalem,"but the disagreement with brother Abu Mazen is on making our decision and the will of our people subordinate to the Israeli occupation, or on submitting to the will of the occupier, or on responding to the desire of this party or that."3 Hamas also described Abbas's decision as "a coup against the path of partnership and national consensus, and it is not permissible to subordinate the entire national situation and our popular and national consensus to the agenda of a particular faction."4 The challenges that prompted the president and the Fatah movement to postpone the elections: There is no doubt that the justifications provided by the president and the Fatah movement were not the real reasons behind postponing the elections. Undoubtedly, the president and the Fatah movement knew that postponing the elections would bring them into direct conflict with the majority of the public and other parties. However, the president postponed the elections; an action that reveals that the extent of the difficulties that the president and the Fatah movement would have faced if elections were held, and the results that would ensued. These difficulties, it seems, were greater, in their view, than the cost of clashing with the people and violating the demands to hold elections. What are the challenges that might have prompted the president and Fatah movement to postpone the elections? First challenge: Fragmentation and lack of discipline within the movement itself The Fatah movement faced great challenges during its journey in the Palestinian Authority in the 1996 and 2006 general elections, and in the various local elections during the past years. Perhaps the most important problems facing the Fatah movement in all the previous rounds of elections is the division in the movement's ranks and the defection of some of its leaders and cadres to run for the elections independently. After the issuance of a decree to hold the general elections, the leadership of the Fatah movement represented by President Abbas took a decision to prevent the 1 See: Results of Public Opinion Poll No. 80 conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. Public Opinion Poll No (80) | PCPSR 2 See: https://al-ain.com/article/1619769757 3 https://arabic.sputniknews.com/arab_world/202104301048859402-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B3- %D9%8A%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%85%D8%A7- %D8%A8%D8%AA%D8%A3%D8%AC%D9%8A%D9%84- %D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA- %D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D9%84%D8%B3%D8%B7%D9%8A%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9- %D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%A7/ 4 Ibid. 4 Critical Policy Brief members of the Central Committee, the Revolutionary Council, the secretaries of the regions, members of parliament and former ministers, in addition to the security and military leaders from running for elections and to give the young generation the opportunity to run in an attempt to renew the movement’s energies and to exhibit a new image capable of attracting voters. The movement's leadership established a set of organizational and professional criteria for those running for elections.