Project Deliverable Grant Agreement number 308952 Project acronym OMSOP Project title OPTIMISED MICROTURBINE SOLAR POWER SYSTEM Funding Scheme FP7-ENERGY.2012.2.5.1:RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF SOLAR DISH SYSTEMS Work Package WP3 – TECHNO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Deliverable number - title D3.2 REPORT ON POTENTIAL MARKETS FOR SMALL SCALE SOLAR- DISH MICROTURBINES Lead Beneficiary UNIVERSITY OF SEVILLE (USE) Dissemination level PU Delivery month JANUARY 2015 (MONTH 24) Name, title and organisation of Prof. Abdulnaser Sayma the scientific representative of Professor of Energy Engineering the project's coordinator City University London Tel: +44 (0)20 7040 8277 E-mail: [email protected] Project website address: www.omsop.eu Abstract The OMSoP project aims to demonstrate and optimise a micro power generator based able to produce electricity from the sun at a competitive price. The technologies of choice are parabolic dish for the solar energy collection and gas turbine for the heat to mechanical work energy conversion. Previous deliverable reports have shown the design, development and testing of certain components and, in due date, more information about system demonstration and testing will be provided. This report presents the first phase of the techno-economic feasibility analysis of the OMSoP technology. The economic tasks of OMSoP aims to identify the areas which are likely to constitute true markets for the technology and, for them, optimise the system so that the cost and revenues are highest. This will enable the sustainability of the newly born industry in as far as the customer is favoured by costs and environmental impact and so is the technology provider which is able to develop a business in a non-subsidised scenario. The structure of the report is as follows. First, some consideration about the history of dish Stirling technology is presented. This was the first technology to address the micro generation of renewable electricity with a concentrating solar thermal system. Numerous research centres have contributed to the technical development of these systems which, then, several companies have tried to deploy to the market. Unfortunately, none of these attempts have been successful to date. On the contrary, all the experiences so far have ended up in bankruptcy events. A second section of the report presents a mehodology developed by the consortium to identify potential markets accurately. It is based on the so-called index of interest (IoI) which is an index measuring the lilkeliness of a given country to turn into a successful market for the OMSoP technology. This index can be interpreted as an absolute value for which a value of 1 indicates that there is no doubt that a market niche exists whereas 0 means that the country will show no interest in the technology. Nevertheless, it is also useful to use it in relative terms to see how dfferent countries compare when it comes to adopting different approaches to the analysis: willingness to take financial risks, comercialisation of individual stand-alone units or larger “farm-type” power plants made up of hundreds of units, etc. A thirs section evaluates the certainty of the results. Three main sources of uncertainty are identified. First, the contribution of each one of the influential parameters used in the methodology (quality of grid, available solar energy…). Second, the input data used to feed the calculator. Third, the probability that the scenario or boundary conditions under which the analysis is performed change in the future. All these three sources of uncertainty are assessed and their potential impact on the results is dicussed in detail. Finally, the numerical tool relies on a vast amount of information for each one of the candidate countries (i.e. countries considered in the analysis). This information is presented at the end of the report in a series of annexes that are structured similiarly. This similar organisation eases the comparison and enables the addition of new countries to the potential markets. With regard to these, it must be said that it has not been possible to consider all the countries in the world and hence just a reduced number of them have been considered. Nevertheless, in the process of selecting these countries, special emphasis has been put on trying to get a list where all the potential features were represented. In other words, countries with high and low insolation, stable and unstable socio-political conditions, large and small populations, even and uneven population and insolation distributions… The outcome of this approach is hopefully that the results obtained for the countries in the list can be extrapolated to countries with similar features. ii Index Abstract .................................................................................................................................. ii Index ..................................................................................................................................... iii List of figures .......................................................................................................................... v List of tables ......................................................................................................................... vii Context and structure ............................................................................................................ 1 Context ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Structure .............................................................................................................................................. 2 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 3 The roots of the utility-scale dish-Stirling power plants: the Maricopa Solar Project .......................... 3 Calico Solar Project ............................................................................................................................. 4 Imperial Valley Solar Project ............................................................................................................... 5 The OMSoP system as a competitive alternative to the Dish-Stirling ................................................. 7 Configurations considered ................................................................................................................... 8 Objectives ............................................................................................................................10 Methodology .........................................................................................................................11 Baseline of the method ...................................................................................................................... 17 Irradiation factor, FI............................................................................................................................ 19 Demand factor, FD ............................................................................................................................. 21 Electricity grid factor, FG .................................................................................................................... 22 Energy policy and social factor, FP .................................................................................................... 24 Financial risk factor, FF ...................................................................................................................... 29 Statistical study .................................................................................................................................. 32 Analysis ................................................................................................................................35 Factor weights ................................................................................................................................... 35 Results ............................................................................................................................................... 36 Sensitivity to weights ......................................................................................................................... 45 Threshold values defining the factors ................................................................................................ 56 Potential changes .............................................................................................................................. 61 Disclaimer of annexes ..........................................................................................................69 ANNEX 1. Algeria...................................................................................................................................... 70 ANNEX 2. Australia ................................................................................................................................... 81 ANNEX 3. Brazil ........................................................................................................................................ 96 ANNEX 4. Canada .................................................................................................................................. 105 ANNEX 5. Chile .....................................................................................................................................