NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Committee April 2010 NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Committee: Richard A. Feely (OAR/PMEL) Rik Wanninkhof (OAR/AOML) John Stein (NMFS/NWFSC) Michael F. Sigler (NMFS/AFSC) Elizabeth Jewett (NOS/CSCOR) Felipe Arzayus (OAR/OOER) Dwight K. Gledhill (OAR/AOML) Editor: Adrienne J. Sutton (OAR/PMEL) Front cover photo: pteropod, Limacina helicina Credit: Russ Hopcroft (University of Alaska Fairbanks) Front cover graphic: seeFigure1.1onpage2 Acknowledgments We acknowledge the 70 members of the Ocean Acidification Research Planning Team (see final page for a full list of contributors) for the considerable amount of thoughtful work and dedication that went into developing this plan for NOAA’s ocean acidification research and monitoring efforts and the NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Com- mittee for identifying the need for this important planning exercise. Special thanks to Ryan Layne Whitney of NOAA/PMEL for his excellent final editing and formatting skills. April 2010 T OF E N C O M M UNITED STATES T M R E A R P C DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE E E D U Gary Locke N A I C T I E R D E Secretary S T A M A T E S O F NOTICE from NOAA Mention of a commercial company or product does not constitute an endorsement by NOAA/OAR. Use of information from this publication concerning proprietary products or the tests of such products for public- ity or advertising purposes is not authorized. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. For internal use only. This report should be cited as: NOAA Ocean Acidification Steering Committee (2010): NOAA Ocean and Great Lakes Acidification Research Plan, NOAA Special Report, 143 pp. Contribution No. 3500 from NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Also available from the National Technical Information Service (NTIS) (http://www.ntis.gov) ii Contents Executive Summary ix 1 Rationale and Strategy for a National Ocean Acidification Program—Richard A. Feely, Chris Sabine, Rik Wanninkhof, Simone R. Alin, Elizabeth Jewett, Dwight K. Gledhill, John Dunne, Paul McElhany, Adrienne J. Sutton, D. Shallin Busch, Felipe Arzayus, Bill Sunda, Jessica Geubtner, Jon Hare, Oliver Vetter, and Steve Hankin 1 1.0 Introduction.................................................... 1 1.0.1 Biologicalconsequencesofoceanacidification........................... 2 1.0.2 Theocean’sbiologicalpump...................................... 6 1.0.3 Evidenceofoceanacidificationfromdataandmodels...................... 6 1.0.4 Goalsandscientificrationale..................................... 7 1.1 DevelopinganOceanAcidificationMonitoringNetwork(Theme1)................... 9 1.1.1 Measurementrequirements...................................... 9 1.1.2 Strategyforanobservationalnetworkforoceanacidification.................. 12 1.2 Organismresponsetooceanacidification(Theme2)............................ 19 1.2.1 Marinephototrophs........................................... 19 1.2.2 Coralreefecosystems.......................................... 20 1.2.3 Shellfishanddeep-seacorals..................................... 21 1.2.4 Fish..................................................... 21 1.2.5 Otherspecies............................................... 22 1.2.6 Protectedspecies............................................. 22 1.3 BiogeochemicalandEcosystemModels(Theme3)............................. 22 1.4 HumanDimensions(Theme4)......................................... 23 1.4.1 Bio-economicmodels.......................................... 23 1.4.2 Mitigationandadaptationstrategies................................. 23 1.5 SynthesisofDataandInformationProducts(Theme5).......................... 24 1.6 EngagementStrategy(Theme6)........................................ 25 1.6.1 Educationandoutreach........................................ 25 1.6.2 Communications............................................. 26 1.7 EnablingActivities................................................. 26 1.7.1 Program office.............................................. 26 1.7.2 Technologydevelopment........................................ 26 1.7.3 Bestpracticesmethods......................................... 27 1.7.4 Centersofexpertisefordataqualityassurance........................... 28 1.7.5 Datamanagement............................................ 28 1.7.6 Stakeholderinteractions........................................ 28 1.8 InteragencyandInternationalCooperation.................................. 28 1.8.1 Interagencycooperation........................................ 28 1.8.2 Internationalcooperation....................................... 29 1.9 ExpectedOutcomes................................................ 29 2 NOAA Alaska Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Michael F. Sigler, Robert J. Foy, Mark Carls, MichaelDalton,LisaB.Eisner,KrisHolderied,ThomasP.Hurst,JosephF.Morado,PhyllisStabeno, and Robert P.Stone 31 2.0 OceanAcidificationintheAlaskaRegion................................... 31 iii 2.1 DevelopinganOceanAcidificationMonitoringNetwork(Theme1)................... 31 2.1.1 Coastallaboratoriesandoceanographicmoorings......................... 32 2.1.2 CO2 cruises:BeringSea,GulfofAlaska,ArcticOcean,southeastAlaska............ 32 2.2 OrganismResponsetoOceanAcidification(Theme2)........................... 33 2.2.1 Shellfish.................................................. 35 2.2.2 Calcareousplankton........................................... 35 2.2.3 Deep-seacorals.............................................. 35 2.2.4 Fish..................................................... 35 2.3 BiogeochemicalandEcosystemModels(Theme3)............................. 36 2.3.1 Ecosystem sensitivity to ocean acidification and valuation of indirect effects......... 36 2.3.2 Climatechange/oceanacidificationscenariodevelopment................... 36 2.4 HumanDimensions(Theme4)......................................... 36 2.5 SynthesisofDataandInformationProducts(Theme5).......................... 37 2.6 EngagementStrategy(Theme6)........................................ 37 2.7 Collaborators.................................................... 37 3 West Coast Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Paul McElhany, Simone R. Alin, D. Shallin Busch, Robert Pavia, Kelley Higgason, Steve Katz, Jonathan Phinney, Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A. Feely, John Stein, Mary Sue Brancato, Ed Bowlby, Jan Roletto, and Lisa Etherington 39 3.0 OceanAcidificationintheWestCoastRegion................................ 39 3.0.1 CarbonChemistryPatterns....................................... 39 3.0.2 Vulnerablespeciesandecosystems.................................. 41 3.0.3 Immediateriskinshellfish....................................... 42 3.1 MonitoringOceanAcidification(Theme1).................................. 42 3.1.1 Oceanographicmonitoring....................................... 42 3.1.2 Biologicalmonitoring.......................................... 45 3.1.3 Intensivelystudiedmarineareas................................... 47 3.2 OrganismResponsetoOceanAcidification(Theme2)........................... 48 3.2.1 Exposureexperiments.......................................... 48 3.2.2 Experimentsonbiologicalpumpparameters............................ 51 3.2.3 Calciumcarbonatemineralogy.................................... 51 3.2.4 Detectinghistoricalspeciesresponse................................. 51 3.2.5 Testingecosystemmodelswithinsituexperiments........................ 52 3.2.6 Evaluatingpotentialmitigationmethods.............................. 52 3.3 BiogeochemicalandEcologicalModels(Theme3)............................. 52 3.3.1 Biogeochemicalmodels—forecastingfutureconditions...................... 52 3.3.2 Biogeochemicalmodels—hindcastinghistoricalconditions................... 53 3.3.3 Ecosystemmodels............................................ 54 3.4 HumanDimensions(Theme4)......................................... 55 3.4.1 Impactofacidificationonecosystemservices........................... 55 3.4.2 Managementdecisionframework................................... 55 3.5 SynthesisofDataandInformationProducts(Theme5).......................... 55 3.6 EngagementStrategy(Theme6)........................................ 56 3.7 Collaborators.................................................... 57 4 Pacific Islands Region Ocean Acidification Research Plan—Russell E. Brainard, David Butterfield, Mark Eakin, Richard A. Feely, Dwight K. Gledhill, Elizabeth Kehn, Kathyrn Shamberger, Adrienne J. Sutton, Oliver Vetter, and Charles Young 59 4.0 OceanAcidificationinthePacificIslandsRegion.............................. 59 4.0.1 RisksfromoceanacidificationinthePacificIslands........................ 59 4.1 DevelopinganOceanAcidificationMonitoringNetwork(Theme1)................... 63 4.1.1 Oceanographicmonitoring....................................... 63 4.1.2 Biologicalmonitoring.......................................... 65 4.1.3 Integratingoceanographicandbiologicalmonitoring....................... 69 4.2 OrganismResponsetoOceanAcidification(Theme2)........................... 70 iv 4.2.1 Speciesresponselaboratoryexperiments.............................. 70 4.2.2 Reefresponseinsituexperiments................................... 71 4.2.3 Estimatehistoricalresponsetovariationinsaturationstate................... 71 4.2.4 Experimentsonbeachformingprocesses.............................. 72 4.2.5